NASCAR returns to Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday for one of my favorite races of the year: the Bass Pro Shops Night Race (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
The dominant story line for teams, drivers and even bettors will be whether there will be significant tire wear in tonight’s race.
Goodyear is bringing a softer right-side tire for this event in an attempt to accelerate tire wear and put more emphasis on drivers to “save their stuff” and increase passing.
Unfortunately, from what we learned at Bristol in the spring, it’s tough to predict just how significantly tires will wear until the race itself.
With that said, drivers and teams did not see much falloff during Friday’s practice sessions, so the expectation is that tire wear won’t be much of an issue tonight.
Now that we have data to examine, I’m betting on two outright winners for Bristol, as well as a live +2700 long-shot pick to score a surprising top-1o finish.
NASCAR Odds, 3 Best Bet Picks for Bristol
*Odds as of Saturday morning
NASCAR odds from BetMGM show Kyle Larson as the race favorite at bet365 with +300 odds, followed by Ryan Blaney (+350), Denny Hamlin (+450), Christopher Bell (+100) and William Byron (+1300).
My first bet comes from this group of favorites.
When the Cup Series visits Bristol, my mind immediately goes to Hamlin.
Hamlin, who qualified a very solid sixth for today’s race, has finishes of ninth, first, first, fourth and second at Bristol since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car.
Pretty good.
Throw in the fact that the No. 11 Toyota was one of the fastest long-run cars in practice and we have a driver capable of dominating tonight’s race at a palatable +550 price tag.
NASCAR Pick: Denny Hamlin (+550) to Win — FanDuel
We move immediately to Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Ty Gibbs, for my second Bristol bet for many of the same reasons.
Gibbs qualified very well — fourth — at a circuit where track position is imperative, was lightning quick in practice and has an impressive history in Thunder Valley.
No, Gibbs has not won here — he still is searching for his first Cup Series win — but finishes of fifth, ninth, 15th and third show he can certainly be in the mix if the car is right.
NASCAR Pick: Ty Gibbs (+1500) to Win — DraftKings
Now for a long-shot-pick from another Toyota.
Riley Herbst was just 29th fastest in qualifying, putting him at disadvantage to start tonight’s race.
However, the 23XI Racing driver showed very impressive race pace in practice, ranking fifth in 20-lap average and second in 25-lap average.
The biggest threat to Herbst is going a lap down early while stuck at the back of the field, but if he can leverage his car’s long-run speed to maneuver forward and not get trapped a lap down at the stage breaks, this bet has serious upside at +2700 odds.
NASCAR Pick: Riley Herbst (+2700) for a top-10 Finish — FanDuel
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