2025 season: Eliminated Sept. 19
With the Rays eliminated from the 2025 postseason, let’s take a look at the season that was in Tampa, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for next year.
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Read more: MLB offseason previews 2025: What’s next for the White Sox, Pirates, Twins and more?
Things that went right
This was understandably a difficult season for the Rays, as the team was forced out of Tropicana Field and played its home games at the Yankees’ spring training venue. In the end, the Rays are on pace to finish with their lowest non-COVID win total since 2016, when they went 68-94. That said, there’s a strong case that the Rays were better than their record. They should easily finish the campaign with a positive run differential (they’re at +48 as of Sept. 20). And there were some individual performances that will have fans eager for 2026.
Junior Caminero is at the outset of a memorable career. Just 22 years old, Camerino has already surpassed 40 homers and 100 RBI in his first full MLB campaign. For an organization known for developing pitchers, having a superstar hitter in the heart of the lineup for years to come will be incredibly valuable. The next challenge for Caminero will be to rank among baseball’s best batters without the benefit of George M. Steinbrenner Field, as he was much more effective at home than on the road in 2025.
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Caminero wasn’t the only Rays hitter who had a strong season. Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe each made a significant impact. The success of Aranda was especially encouraging, considering he entered the season as a 26-year-old with 293 career at-bats who was running out of time to take the next step. Díaz used the power-inducing nature of his temporary home park to post a career-best homer total, while the oft-injured Lowe was selected for the All-Star Game and will finish with his most games played (149) since 2021.
As is typical with the Rays, there were successes on the mound as well. In his first full season since 2023 elbow surgery, Drew Rasmussen was especially effective, albeit without going deep into games. Ryan Pepiot was the team’s workhorse, and Pete Fairbanks continued to be a reliable closer.
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Things that went wrong
The 2025 Rays didn’t have a glaring weakness. They were roughly average in run scoring and run prevention. If there was a sore spot, it was that they placed near the bottom of the league in Fielding Run Value, per Statcast. Lowe and outfielders Chandler Simpson and Christopher Morel were the main culprits.
Although Tampa Bay enjoyed good health in the rotation, Shane Baz was less reliable than expected. That said, Baz didn’t lose velocity, and his strikeout and walk rates resembled his career norms. His ERA estimators suggest that the right-hander was unlucky, and most of his struggles were confined to the team’s hitter-friendly home park. Taj Bradley also struggled — to the point that the organization decided to send him to the minors in July and traded him to Minnesota at the deadline.
While their offense was respectable overall, the Rays struggled to get production from an unsettled outfield group. Morel, Simpson, Josh Lowe, Jake Mangum and Kameron Misner all logged mediocre numbers across substantial amounts of playing time. Simpson could at least offset his below-average plate skills with outstanding base stealing, and Mangum was solid in that area as well. Shortstop was another area of concern, as offseason acquisition Ha-Seong Kim missed much of the season due to multiple injuries and was claimed on waivers by the Braves at the beginning of September. Taylor Walls proved to be a capable defensive replacement but didn’t contribute much at the plate.
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Offseason outlook
The Rays are one of the most creative organizations in baseball, which makes it difficult to predict their offseason movements. Still, there are some spots where the team seems set for 2026. Unfortunately, catcher is not one of them. The team used a pair of 28-year-olds in Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes down the stretch, but neither profiles as a permanent solution. The rest of the infield is in good shape. Aranda will play first, and Díaz will be the DH, while Caminero has the hot corner locked up for years to come. Lowe will likely turn double plays with Carson Williams, who debuted down the stretch. Walls’ defensive skills make him a solid reserve player.
The future of the outfield is harder to predict. Simpson should start in left or center field, where the team will live with his poor defensive skills and lack of power in order to have a high-average speedster in the lineup. Josh Lowe is wrapping up a second straight season in which an oblique injury contributed to a disappointing campaign. He will surely get another chance, as he is affordable and just two years removed from producing 20 homers and 32 steals in 2023. Mangum, Misner, Morel and Jonny DeLuca will all compete for the remaining outfield spots, and there’s a good chance the Rays’ front office targets the outfield when making offseason moves.
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There are plenty of options for the 2026 rotation, led by Pepiot and Rasmussen. Baz will have a spot, as should Joe Boyle, who showed exciting swing-and-miss abilities and concerning control skills this year. The wild card is Shane McClanahan, who could be one of the best pitchers in the American League if he can finally finish his long road back from Tommy John surgery. It’s concerning that McClanahan was unable to contribute this year and required another surgery in August. Ian Fleming put his name into the 2026 conversation with some effective late-season starts.
The main cogs in the bullpen are under contract for 2026. The team will surely exercise its club option on Fairbanks, who will continue to be the closer. The key setup men will be Edwin Uceta and Griffin Jax, who was acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline. Garrett Cleavinger gives the team an effective lefty for high-leverage situations.
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Prospects on the horizon
Tampa’s farm system is led by Williams, one of the most exciting position-player prospects in baseball, thanks to his game-changing defensive skills. He also has impressive power and base-stealing abilities. It’s worth noting that his ability to reach base declined significantly when he reached Triple-A, as his frequent strikeouts became a major hurdle. The Rays will take into account his Triple-A performance and late-season major-league audition when deciding if Williams is ready for the 2026 Opening Day roster.
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Xavier Isaac was the team’s first-round draft pick in 2022 and appeared to be on his way to a debut this year before he logged an injury-impacted 2025 season in Double-A. He now slots behind Tre’ Morgan, who is knocking on the door after a solid season in Triple-A. Morgan is a unique first-base prospect who has outstanding defensive skills and uses superior on-base abilities to make up for a lack of power. He can also play in the outfield.
The Rays are known for doing a great job with their pitchers, and Brody Hopkins looks to be the next in a long line of success stories. Hopkins was part of the 2025 Futures Game and has shown outstanding swing-and-miss abilities at the Double-A level this year. He should open 2026 in Triple-A and will become a major-league option as soon as he curbs his walk rate.
Goals for 2026
The pieces are in place for the Rays to halt their postseason absence at two seasons. As mentioned earlier, the team’s run differential this year is a clear indicator that they deserved a better fate in the standings. Still, finishing with a winning record will continue to be a tall task in the always competitive AL East. The Blue Jays are wrapping up a terrific season, the Red Sox have played great in the second half, the Yankees are always a threat, and the Orioles have the talent to quickly rebound from an unexpected losing season.
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Tampa Bay’s front office is among the most creative in baseball, so it won’t surprise anyone if president of baseball operations Erik Neander makes some unexpected moves this winter. One of those could be to trade Díaz, who was mentioned in trade rumors at the deadline. Many teams would covet Díaz as an on-base presence atop the lineup, and he could be moved for younger, cheaper players. Brandon Lowe is another trade candidate, as he’s one year away from free agency.
Fantasy focus
Caminero will headline the Rays’ fantasy contributors, and there will be managers confident enough to select him in the second round. After all, it’s rare to see a 22-year-old rank among the league’s home run leaders. The rest of the team’s hitters will fall to the middle rounds of drafts. Simpson will have polarizing fantasy value. Those in roto leagues will be excited to draft someone who could hit .300 and lead the majors in steals, while those in points formats will leave him until the late rounds due to an expected lack of extra-base hits.
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Thanks to his on-base skills, Díaz will be in the opposite situation, as he will be a solid contributor in roto formats and more valuable than that in points leagues. Brandon Lowe will get dinged for his lack of durability but will still be selected near the midpoint of drafts. And in every draft, someone will be willing to take a late-round flyer on Josh Lowe in hopes that he can recreate the magic of his 2023 campaign.
Depending on spring training reports, McClanahan could be drafted as a No. 2 fantasy starter or could fall to the late rounds due to persistent injury concerns. The landing spots for Pepiot and Rasmussen are much easier to project, as they will be selected in the range of Rounds 10-12 as No. 3 starters. Baz and Boyle will be boom-or-bust picks in the second half of drafts, and Fairbanks will be a mid-round pick and roughly the 15th reliever off the board.
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