Sunday afternoon Orioles game thread: vs. Rays, 1:35pm ET

Probable pitchers: RHP Shane Baz (4-13, 4.02 ERA, 132 Ks) vs. RHP Nick Martinez (12-4, 3.05 ERA, 83 Ks)

Where to watch: MASN/MASN+

If the Orioles could play an entire season just against the Rays, they’d probably be the best team in baseball. After last night’s extra-inning win, the Orioles improved to 8-4 on the season against the AL East leaders and have won eight of their last nine vs. the Rays.

And yet, despite being the only team to beat the Rays 6+ times, the Orioles need another win today if they want to continue their push toward a playoff spot. With the O’s at 63-67, and six other AL teams clustered between 61 and 64 wins, every game is a near must-win for Baltimore the rest of the way.

After excellent pitching performances from Trevor Rogers and Brandon Young to begin the series, the Orioles turn to former Ray Shane Baz to finish off the sweep. Any time Baz takes the mound, the focus almost always shifts to his frustratingly small amount of run support. The 27-year-old is 53rd among 55 qualified starting pitchers with an average of 3.12 runs of run support per game. The lack of run support has only gotten worse of late, as the O’s are scoring 2.7 runs/game in Baz’s last 10 starts, dooming the team to a 1-9 record in those 10 games.

However, if the right-hander’s previous starts against his former team are anything to go on, Baltimore won’t need a ton of runs to beat the Rays today. Baz faced his former club for the first time as an Oriole back on May 20th in Tropicana Field, when he tossed 6 innings of 2-hit ball, allowing just 1 run and striking out six. Just six days later, Baz faced the Rays again in Baltimore and posted an equally impressive line of 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB and 9 Ks.

Opposing Baz is 36-year-old right-hander Nick Martinez. The 2026 All-Star leads the Rays’ rotation in bWAR (3.0) and IP (141.2), while ranking second in ERA. However, the first-year Ray is in the midst of his worst stretch of the season, having posted a 5.96 ERA and .303 BAA over his last four starts. He’s also averaging one home run allowed per game over his last 8 starts, which should bode well for the red-hot bat of Pete Alonso and the middle of the Orioles’ order.

Prior to joining the Rays, Martinez spent four years in the National League (after a four-year stint in Japan between 2018 and 2021). Today’s start will be his first time pitching in Camden Yards since 2015, when he faced an Orioles lineup led by Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis and JJ Hardy. Martinez was the loser that day 11 years ago, and the current generation of O’s will look to hand him another L today.