Stanley Cup Final Game 6: Carolina at Vegas – Preview and Thread

The Stanley Cup will be in the building Sunday night, and for the first time in 20 years, the Carolina Hurricanes can be the team to skate away with it.

The final game is the toughest to win, and tonight’s battle will be no different. The Vegas Golden Knights will be desperate to force Game 7 and will leave everything they have on the ice.

Below are a few key storylines for tonight’s game.

For Game 5, Vegas head coach John Tortorella decided to stack his lines and lean heavily on his stars.

The Canes responded with their best game of the series, one that was truer to their style of play.

Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone loaded up the top line and spent nearly eight minutes of ice time together during five-on-five play. This was the most ice time among Vegas lines.

Those three had over 20 minutes of ice time during Game 5. In contrast, no Carolina forward had more than 20 minutes of ice time.

With Vegas having the matchup advantage on home ice, will this change Tortorella’s strategy?

The most important factor influencing the Golden Knights’ lineup is the loss of William Karlsson.

A heavy Sean Walker check in Game 5 knocked him out of the game with an upper-body injury, and Tortorella has ruled him out for Game 6, hinting he’s unlikely to return to this series.

Karlsson centered Marner and Brett Howden, one of Vegas’s most productive and relied-upon lines. This combination led all Golden Knights’ lines in five-on-five ice time during the first four games of the series.

Not to mention, Karlsson is a top two-way center and a critical penalty killer.

If Vegas were to make a goaltending switch, it should have been after Game 4. Tortorella announced yesterday that Carter Hart will, once again, start for Vegas. The goalie continued to make history on Thursday by adding to his infamous Stanley Cup Final streak, allowing at least four goals in five straight games.

Via the Associated Press during Tortorella’s media availability on Saturday:

Because I know him, Tortorella said Saturday. I know there’s a better game in him. I’ve seen it throughout the playoffs. Yeah, I think he’s a very good goalie. We’ve got to do a better job around him, too. You can look at the numbers, and you guys (media), that’s what you do. You spit out those numbers, but I’ve got to look at things differently and watch the play going on around him and what type of goals are being scored.

In the battle between Hart and Brandon Bussi, Carolina’s goalie is giving his team the advantage.

In Game 5, Hart had a 2.73 expected goals against while posting -1.27 goals saved above expectation. A major reason for that negative number was that three of the Canes’ goals were considered low danger shots.

Bussi, on the other hand, had a 4.029 expected goals against with a 2.03 goals saved above expectation. Both of Vegas’ goals were considered high danger, and finished the game with a 4.03-3.17 expected goals advantage over Carolina.

From these advanced statistics, there are two points to emphasize in the Hurricanes’ game plan.

First, continue to fire upon Hart. Shots are getting through, and there are still plenty of rebounds available. Carolina did a better job exploiting some of Vegas’ defensive miscues, and a moving Hart has led to some great scoring chances.

Second, the Canes need to further limit high danger opportunities. Although skewed to the third period of Game 5, the Golden Knights did create some quality chances. Expect Vegas to come out firing Sunday night. The Carolina defense must keep Vegas out of those high-danger areas and trust Bussi to take care of the rest. This will be the biggest advantage of the night if the goaltender trends continue.

Since an unsuccessful coach’s challenge late in Game 2 by the Golden Knights, the Hurricanes’ power play converted on half of their opportunities. Throughout the Final, Carolina has outscored Vegas 6-2 on the power play. With Karlsson out, the Knights’ kill is under even more pressure against a rolling Canes’ power play.

Vegas owned the middle frame for four games before Carolina finally answered in Game 5. Whoever controls the long-change period likely controls the night. The Canes do not have to “win” the second period, but they absolutely cannot fall behind while on the road. Positioning, clean exits from the zone, and ensuring no Golden Knight sneaks behind the defense are the keys for the team.

Another key tonight will be the opening 10 minutes. Although the first goal has not predicted the outcomes of the individual games in this series, tonight is different. If the Hurricanes score the first goal of the game, the opposing arena will go quiet, and the Knights will face another obstacle in an elimination game. Carolina must continue to play their game and certainly not sit back with an early lead.

Keep an eye on the announcement of the Carolina starter, although it is expected that Bussi will earn the start. Frederik Andersen skated yesterday and is with the team.

Vegas Golden Knights

Forwards:

Dorofeyev — Eichel — Stone
Howden — Hertl — Marner
Barbashev — Sissons — Saad
Smith — Dowd — Kolesar

Defense:

Goalies: Hart (starter), Hill
Scratches: Schmid, R. Smith, Hutton, Megna, Bowman, Korczak
Injured: Karlsson (upper body), Rondbjerg (lower body)

Carolina Hurricanes

Forwards:

Hall — Stankoven — Blake
Ehlers — Staal — Jarvis
Carrier — Jankowski — Robinson

Defense:

Goalies: Bussi (projected starter), Andersen
Scratches: Kotkaniemi, Deslauriers, Reilly, Kochetkov

Here’s how to check out the action:

Location: T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas, NV
TV: ABC; Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports
Radio: 99.9 The Fan FM, Mike Maniscalco, play-by-play; Tripp Tracy, color analyst
Line: ML: CAR -115; PL: CAR -1.5 +225