What does a Stanley Cup winner actually look like? It’s a question that all 32 NHL teams ask every season.
By analyzing the regular-season profiles of the last 10 champions, there are statistical trends that consistently lead to post-season success and can be used to see which 2025 Cup contenders match the mold.
The general framework for this experiment prioritizes some key aspects that have historically dictated a team’s success in the playoffs: offensive depth, puck possession, defensive strength and goaltending.
Here’s a rundown of the stats and criteria being used, and why each of them is important.
After that, it’s time to see which NHL teams fit the bill the most.
(Stats courtesy of moneypuck.com, naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com.)
What Stats Often Determine A Stanley Cup Champion?
Goals against per game: While offensive efficiency in the regular season has varied across previous champions, defense has always been consistent. Seven of the last 10 Cup winners have ranked in the top 10 in goals against per game.
Expected goals differential: How dangerous are the chances you are creating, and how dangerous are the ones you are giving up? They can individually be valuable, but the best teams are good at both. Eight of the last 10 champions finished in the top 12 in expected goal differential.
Goal differential: While expected stats provide a good measurement of a team’s overall process, results are truly what matter. Seven of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions finished in the top four in goal differential.
Power-play percentage and penalty-kill percentage: Special teams have always had the potential to decide which team wins a game, which can apply to an entire playoff run. Seven of the last eight winners finished with a top 10 power play in the regular season.
Corsi-for percentage: Possession dominance at even strength has increasingly become a factor leading to success in the regular season, which translates to success in the playoffs. Seven of the last 10 Stanley Cup winners finished in the top 10 in Corsi-for percentage during the regular season.
PDO: Every team needs bounces to go their way in the quest for the Stanley Cup. While not perfect, PDO is the best indicator of favorable bounces throughout a season. It measure shooting percentage plus save percentage. Five of the last 10 teams that won it all finished in the top five in PDO, and nobody finished lower than 13th.
Regulation wins: With no 3-on-3 overtime, wins in regulation can be a way of measuring even-strength dominance. Nine of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions have finished top-10 in regulation wins.
Here are some other factors being taken into consideration that aren’t accounted for with the analytics above.
Weight: Playing “heavy hockey” has been an important part of today’s game. While the 2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks and the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2015-16 and 2016-17 ranked in the bottom half of average weight, five of the last seven Stanley Cup rosters have been in the top 10.
Star talent: Defining a “star” isn’t always a linear process, but for the sake of this exercise, it’s defined as a player who averages over a point per game throughout the regular season. Seven of the last 10 champs have had at least one in their lineup, and five of them have had two or more.
Depth scoring: While the stars lead you to the playoffs, having offensive depth has always been an important part of every Stanley Cup run. Six of the last 10 winners had four or more 20-plus-goal scorers, and every team other than the 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning (shortened season) had three.
Goaltending stability: When nothing seems to be going right, the best teams have historically had a goaltender to rely on to potentially steal a game or two in the post-season. Seven of the last 10 champions have had a goaltender with at least a .915 save percentage, and six teams had at least one that finished top-10 in goals saved above expected (GSAx)
2024-25 NHL Teams That Match The Blueprint The Most
Winnipeg Jets
Canada’s best chance of winning a Stanley Cup in 2025, according to this exercise, lies in the hands of the Winnipeg Jets.
The Presidents’ Trophy winners are primed for a deep playoff run with Hart Trophy candidate Connor Hellebuyck and the dynamic offensive duo of Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele. This team has long felt like a contender, but now the pieces might finally fall into place.
This year is different. The Jets’ offense seemingly struggled throughout the regular season last year, finishing 15th in goals-for per game (3.16). With scoring dropping around the league this year, the Jets have only produced offense at a slightly higher clip (3.37) and rank fourth in goals per game. For even further context, that pace would have them finish ninth in league scoring last season.
Last year’s first-round matchup with the Colorado Avalanche was a track meet the Jets simply could not keep up with, especially with a power play that ranked in the bottom 10 in the NHL. Now, the Jets are the best team in the NHL with the man-advantage and have the best goaltender in a league where nearly every other team has had offensive regression.
Los Angeles Kings
What the Los Angeles Kings lack in star power, they make up for in structure and depth.
They’ve arguably been the best defensive team in the NHL this season, ranking first in expected goals against and second in total goals conceded. Their penalty kill is also among the league’s best, ranking seventh.
While the Kings play a tight brand of defense, goaltender Darcy Kuemper deserves a ton of credit for his efforts.
The 34-year-old is outperforming his 2021-22 Cup-winning campaign with a .922 save percentage, a top-six GSAx ranking and a 2.02 goals-against average – tied with Hellebuyck.
The Kings haven’t had any real stability in their crease since the departure of Jonathan Quick, and a resurgence like this could give them the edge in playoff rounds where they might not be favored.
Offense has, and will continue to be, the biggest question for the Kings.
Adrian Kempe is their only player with over 70 points. They rank 28th in power-play percentage and 13th in goals-for per game (3.06).
That said, their formula seems to be working, putting together an absurd 41-0-2 record when scoring three goals or more.
Aside from Kempe, Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala and even Quinton Byfield have all been significant contributors to this balanced offense. It will be guys like Alex Laferriere, Warren Foegele and Trevor Moore who leverage matchup opportunities and drive them on a deep run.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning just won’t go away.
Even after losing two integral pieces to their core in Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev last off-season, the Lightning built a regular-season resume that has them looking just as dangerous as they were in their pursuit of back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021.
The Lightning arguably have the most star power out of any playoff team this season, led by Art Ross leader and Hart Trophy candidate Nikita Kucherov. They also have three other players who have scored at least 35 goals and averaged over a point per game in Brandon Hagel, Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel.
This high-powered offense is third in even-strength goals while also having the fifth-best power play, leading them to score more total goals than anyone in the NHL. There isn’t an on-ice scenario where the Lightning aren’t capable of scoring, and they do it at a rate higher than any other team in the league.
GM Julien BriseBois also deserves credit for the additions made in the summer and at the trade deadline. Aside from Guentzel fitting in perfectly as the Lightning’s new trigger man, re-acquiring Ryan McDonagh has also been a huge win, covering up a lot of the defensive shortcomings this blueline looked to have heading into the season.
Oliver Bjorkstrand was also a nice pickup, adding a defensively responsible winger with some scoring upside to a bottom-six group that already wins most of its matchups offensively. Having him recovered from injury would give the team another depth boost in the playoffs, but he’s currently out week-to-week.
The Lightning also have the best goal differential in the Eastern Conference, largely due to a Vezina-caliber season from Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Russian netminder is quietly having one of the best statistical years of his career, boasting a .921 SP and 2.18 GAA while sitting only behind Hellebuyck in GSAx.
There’s no perfect formula for winning the Stanley Cup – but there are some patterns. Teams that have depth scoring, dominant goaltending and strong defensive structure tend to be the ones lifting the Cup this summer. The margin between contenders and pretenders is razor-thin, but these three teams have set themselves up for success in the coming weeks.
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