We’ve reached the NBA’s final four. Spurs-Thunder in the West, Cavs-Knicks in the East. Which teams will meet in the NBA Finals? Our writers make their conference finals predictions.
Spurs or Thunder: Who ya got?
Tom Haberstroh: Spurs in 6. The Thunder finally get an opportunity to prove that Victor Wembanyama isn’t their nemesis. Good luck. With Wemby on the floor this season, the Spurs have dominated OKC to the tune of plus-50 in 126 minutes. When we isolate it to SGA/Wemby minutes only, the Spurs still outscored the Thunder by 20 in 64 minutes. No one has a good answer for Wemby, not even the champs.
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Ben Rohrbach: Thunder in 7. They have been rolling, sweeping their first two series, and they haven’t even weaponized Jalen Williams yet. Give me their championship experience from last season over a Spurs group that counts a 22-year-old (Wembanyama), a 21-year-old (Stephon Castle) and a 20-year-old (Dylan Harper) as their three foundational players. And, because, if San Antonio emerges, what hope does the rest of the league have for the foreseeable future?
Kelly Iko: Spurs in 7. The Wall of Wemby leaves no stone unturned, even against the champs. OKC has converted 76.2% of its shots at the rim, 39.2% of corner 3s and 37.9% on above-the-break 3s since the playoffs began. With Wembanyama on the floor, that efficiency drops to 61.6% (worse than the 30th-ranked Chicago Bulls!), 36.6% and 33.6% (bottom-five rate for regular season). In other words, Wembanyama’s mere presence turns the Thunder from champs into chumps. Strap in.
Dan Titus: Thunder in 6. I’m backing the reigning champs. They’re 8-0 with a +16.6 average margin of victory. They have the MVP and are at full strength for the first time in a long time. I expect they’ll lean on their defensive pressure to fuel their transition offense, which is where they can somewhat neutralize Wemby. The coaching staff will throw multiple looks at the big man, and we’ve seen the Spurs be careless with the ball throughout the postseason. San Antonio went 4-0 in the regular season against OKC, but the playoffs are an entirely different conversation.
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Dan Devine: Thunder in 7. This might wind up looking stupid, because, as has been covered consistently since December, San Antonio appears to be the one team that actually, legitimately matches up well with Oklahoma City. But I picked OKC to repeat before the start of the season, and all the Thunder have done since is win more games than any other team in the NBA, despite losing the fourth-most player games to injury of any team in the NBA, with the best net rating in the NBA and the sixth-best defense of the last 50 years, and sweep the first two rounds by an average of nearly 17 points per game. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Spurs beat them four times in seven games; I’m just going to need to see it first.
Devine: Knicks in 6. If the Cavs team we saw Sunday night is the one that shows up for the next two weeks, Cleveland can absolutely make it to the Finals. But with New York having such a massive rest advantage, with less than 48 hours between the end of Game 7 in Detroit and the start of Game 1 at MSG, with the Cavs coming off consecutive grueling seven-game series, and with the games coming every other day without an opportunity to catch a breather, I think it’s more likely the Cavs run out of gas than a Knicks team that’s been firing on all cylinders sputters through the finish line.
Titus: Knicks in 6. The drought season is officially over. The Cavs’ road through Toronto and Detroit was brutal and it’ll show. Cleveland is just 2-5 away from home in the playoffs. Meanwhile, New York has been a machine: a 124.8 offensive rating paired with a 104.8 defensive rating, both second best in the postseason. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges will blanket Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. This Knicks team is rested, healthy and built for this moment.
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Haberstroh: Knicks in 5. Kudos to the Cavs for finishing off the Pistons, but they’ll need to level up against the Knicks, who dodged a bullet by not facing a Detroit team that swept Mike Brown’s crew this season. The Knicks’ long layoff may hurt them in Game 1, but I see this being a quick series, thanks to the Knicks’ offense that will look 4K compared to the 8-bit Pistons.
Iko: Cavs in 7. With all due respect to the Hawks and 76ers, this new-look Cleveland team is not that. These two teams met three times during the regular season, with New York taking the first two, but that was a much different Cavs unit — no Harden, Dennis Schröder, Keon Ellis or Max Strus. Since the latter’s insertion into the rotation, Cleveland’s shot quality is among the top six in basketball and it’s converted at an efficient rate in the playoffs, too. I also think we’re overlooking a pretty important Kenny Atkinson factor when it comes to in-game adjustments and tweaks. There’s enough meat on the bones for an upset; it’s not the craziest thing in the world.
Rohrbach: Knicks in 5. The Cavaliers have survived seven-game series against the Raptors and Pistons, but the Knicks — the way they’ve been playing for the past seven games, storming back against the Hawks and laying waste to the 76ers — are a different animal. New York has shown a level of two-way ability that Toronto and Detroit could not match, and I’m not sure Mitchell, Harden and the Cavaliers are prepared to meet the Knicks’ ferocity.
True or False: The West winner will be the 2026 NBA champs.
Iko: True. Whoever emerges from the bloodbath that is the Western Conference finals will cruise in June. Both teams are just too talented, too deep, too well coached to suggest otherwise — especially considering the Knicks’ and Cavs’ routes (although surviving two Game 7s is admirable, no matter the competition).
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Rohrbach: True. The Thunder and Spurs are just playing at another level. Not only are they talented at the top, featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama, respectively — arguably the two greatest players in the world — but they are surrounded by rotations full of star-studded role players. They are young and hungry, and without holes on their rosters, and that is a dangerous combination against East teams full of questions for much of the season.
Devine: True. I’ve had Thunder over Knicks since October, and I’ll stick with it. (Although if it’s Spurs-Knicks, we might finally have a reason to consider the results of the NBA Cup relevant!)
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Haberstroh: True. I’ve felt all season this was the Spurs’ year and nothing has disproven that notion this postseason. It’s unfortunate that they’ll have to face their toughest foe in OKC in the Final Four, but that’s the way it’s been for West juggernauts this century. Jalen Williams’ hamstring injury will dictate whether it’s the Spurs or OKC taking down the Knicks in the Finals.
Titus: True. The Knicks are legit. I won’t dismiss them. But the Western Conference has operated at a completely different level all year. OKC and the Knicks currently own the two highest playoff net ratings in NBA history. I expect the Knicks to push back. But when you look beyond the stars, the West’s role players have the depth and versatility advantage that will be the difference when it matters most. OKC back-to-back champs.
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