The Wild Card Race.
My final prediction in the preseason was that the Diamondbacks would win 85.1 games. With 82 wins, the Diamondbacks could exceed my prediction, which would give me joy. I’d rather be wrong with the Diamondbacks heading to the playoffs.
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The Obvious. The Diamondbacks odds of being the third NL Wild Card are small, but non-zero. They need to sweep the final six games (3 games vs Rockies and 3 games vs Padres). And either the Phillies or the Padres need to lose nearly all their games.
The Subtle and Profound. Torey Lovullo’s comments after Sunday’s game were subtle and profound.
“…We know where we are in the standings. There’s not a damn thing we can do about it, other than go out and play our finest game on Tuesday in Colorado.” — Torey Lovullo
The Difference that Matters. Sweeping this series (or not) is the difference that matters.
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Rockies Players to Watch.
Former Diamondbacks Jake McCarthy splits his playing time between left field and center field, with a little bit of right field. After a career worst season with the Diamondbacks, with the Rockies his 113 OPS+ is backed up with 15 homers and 80 RBIs. McCarthy’s comments seemed to say his improvement was due to trying to hit line drives to all fields, batting at the top of the lineup, and more consistent at-bats. Two huge difference makers follow:
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His batting performance is better at Coors than Chase. At Coors his OPS was 1.111 in 2025 and .904 inn 2026. At Chase his OPS was .598 in 2025 and .310 in 2026.
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He increased his percentage of fast swings (swings greater than 75 MPH). Per Baseball Savant, the percentage of fast swings increased from 7.8% in 2025 to 15.4% in 2026. That’s nearly double!
“I think it’s getting back to what makes me good. I think last year I sort of got away from doing what I do well. I think that’s being competitive on a daily basis. When I reflect on last year, I think a lot of at-bats ended in a pop-out or just early, weak contact. I’m trying to hit as many line drives around the field as possible. I’m sure the big outfield of Coors (Field) does help.” — Jake McCarthy
Pitching Matchups.
Announced Diamondbacks Pitchers (as of Monday morning):
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Michael Soroka. In his latest start, he allowed 1 earned run in 5 innings.
Merrill Kelly. In his latest start, which was against the Marlins, he allowed 3 earned runs in 4.2 innings. However, the Marlins scored an unearned run, and one run was the margin of victory for the Marlins.
Eduardo Rodriguez. In his latest start, which was against the Yankees, he allowed 7 earned runs (5 of which were in the first inning) in 5.1 innings. How well he fares in the first inning will be an early indicator of the Diamondbacks winning chances.
Announced Rockies Starters (as of Monday morning):
Kyle Freeland. In his latest start, be allowed 1 earned run in 5 innings.
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Mason Adams. In his latest start, which was against the Padres, he allowed 6 earned runs in 4.1 innings. Six runs was the margin of victory for the Padres.
Not yet announced.
Game start times follow:
Tuesday, 5:40 PM MST.
Wednesday, 5:40 PM MST.
Thursday, 12:10 PM MST.
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