The SEC has been the nation’s top conference in recent history, but it enters 2025 in a bit of a slump. Neither of the last two National Championship Games had an SEC team in the mix. While two years might not seem like that long of a time, but the conference had at least one representative in the title game in each of the last eight years. This conference is hungry to regain its spot atop the college football landscape.
The SEC has no shortage of prime title contenders. Texas, Georgia and Alabama are among the favorites to win the College Football Playoff, and the SEC should be much deeper than last year with teams like Florida, Auburn and Oklahoma all expected take notable steps forward.
If you’re looking to get into college football betting and make SEC futures picks at the top sportsbooks, read on for the college football picks and analysis from SportsLine expert Thomas Casale.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
SEC title odds (via FanDuel)
SEC futures favorites
Texas Longhorns (+290)
Perhaps no team enters 2025 with more intrigue than Texas, which is the betting favorite to win both the SEC and the National Championship. A big part of that is Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, stepping in as the starter after sitting behind Quinn Ewers each of the last two seasons. Even after Steve Sarkisian and Co. lost 14 players to the NFL, the Longhorns are the favorites and seen as the best team in the SEC and nation, which sure says a lot.
Sarkisian does return many key pieces from last year’s 13-win team, along with the country’s top-rated recruiting class. Sark also used the transfer portal to fill in holes, especially at defensive tackle, where Cole Brevard (Purdue), Travis Shaw (North Carolina) and Hero Kanu (Ohio State) will all have an immediate impact. Bottom line: The Longhorns are still loaded.
While Texas is stacked with elite talent, there is one player who has Longhorns fans in a frenzy. The Arch Manning era is finally here after the highly touted quarterback waited his turn behind Quinn Ewers the last two seasons. We won’t have to wait long to see if Manning can live up to the hype. The Longhorns open the season at defending champion Ohio State on Aug. 30.
Texas does have some question marks after losing so much talent, but I agree with the oddsmakers about the Longhorns. I have Texas rated No. 1 in my power rankings heading into the season. The Longhorns have a deep, talented roster and Manning will prove to be an upgrade over Ewers at quarterback.
Texas should be the favorite to win the SEC. However…
Georgia Bulldogs (+300)
Can the Longhorns beat Georgia? That’s a big story to watch this year as the Longhorns lost not once, but twice to Georgia last season. These two teams meet again Nov. 15 in Athens in what may very well be a Game of the Year candidate for the regular season.
There is no arguing Georgia’s overall talent. Player for player, the Bulldogs might have the most talented two-deep roster in the country. However, the position that is the biggest question mark just happens to be the most important: quarterback. Gunner Stockton takes over for the departed Carson Beck. Like Manning, Stockton is dangerous as a runner and will add another element to the offense.
Georgia also needs to get back to the defense which dominated when the Bulldogs were winning titles. They allowed under 80 rushing yards per game from 2019-22. However, the last two seasons, Georgia has given up 114 and 130 rushing yards per game. Last year, seven teams rushed for over 140 yards against the Bulldogs.
The schedule sets up nicely for Georgia. The Bulldogs have just three SEC road games (Tennessee, Auburn, Mississippi State), while playing Texas and Alabama at home. If Stockton is the real deal, Georgia should be playing in its eighth SEC Championship Game in the last nine seasons.
Alabama Crimson Tide (+490)
The betting market expects a big year from Alabama in Kalen DeBoer’s second year in Tuscaloosa after narrowly missing the CFP last season. The Tide are +490 to win the SEC and have the fifth-shortest odds to win the College Football Playoff at +1100.
There is reason for optimism. Alabama returns 15 starters from last year’s team that just missed the playoffs. Keep in mind, not only did DeBoer have to replace an icon in Nick Saban, but more than 30 players from the 2023 team left the program. DeBoer made the title game in his second season at Washington and Alabama fans are hoping for similar success in 2025.
Like Texas and Georgia, Alabama will be breaking in a new quarterback with the dynamic Jalen Milroe going to the NFL. The difference is the Tide didn’t have a sure-fire starter ready to take over like Manning or Stockton. Redshirt junior Ty Simpson is expected to get first crack at replacing Milroem but if he falters, true freshman and 5-star recruit Keelon Russell will be waiting in the wings.
I have tremendous respect for DeBoer and his ability to coach up the quarterback position. However, of the three SEC favorites, Alabama has the biggest question mark at the position. While I expect the Tide to compete for an SEC title and CFP spot, I also think they are a little overvalued in the betting market heading into the season.
My early thinking is Alabama is still one year away from being a serious National Championship contender with the dynamic Russell at quarterback.
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Overvalued SEC futures
Florida Gators (+1800)
Florida is the trendy sleeper pick in the SEC entering 2025. I get it. Florida won each of its last four games by an average of 16 points, and the Gators return 15 starters, including standout sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway, who many see as a potential Heisman candidate. This is Billy Napier’s most talented team in Gainesville and some people are projecting Florida as a CFP team.
While it certainly wouldn’t shock me if Florida competes for a playoff spot, the schedule is still a problem. Last year. the Gators faced the toughest schedule in the country and it doesn’t get much easier this season. Florida has road games at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss, hosts Texas and Tennessee, and faces Georgia in Jacksonville.
I’m not sold on the Gators being an SEC or National title contender with that schedule. Florida will be improved, although I still believe it is a notch below the elite teams in the SEC.
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Undervalued SEC futures
Auburn Tigers (+2000)
While Florida enters the 2025 season as a popular sleeper pick in the SEC, the team I like is Auburn. The Tigers had some of the worst quarterback play of any Power 4 team last season, but Hugh Freeze believes he finally has the guy to run his offense in Jackson Arnold. Whatever you think of Arnold, he’s a major upgrade over Payton Thorne and Hank Brown.
The Tigers ranked 28th in defense last season. That’s pretty impressive for a 5-win team in the SEC. I expect Auburn to once again be formidable on that side of the ball. With former 5-star recruit Arnold at quarterback, an experienced offensive line, and a star receiver in transfer Eric Singleton Jr. (Georgia Tech), Freeze’s offense could be the most improved unit in the conference.
We’ll know early if the Tigers are serious contenders in the SEC. Auburn plays at Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas A&M before October. On paper though, this is the most talented group Freeze has had at Auburn on both sides of the ball. I like the Tigers as a sleeper to make the CFP at +370.
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Best futures bet to win SEC
LSU Tigers (+600)
I mentioned above that all three SEC favorites will have new quarterbacks this season. LSU doesn’t have that problem. Garrett Nussmeier returns for his senior year after throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024. Nussmeier is an early Heisman Trophy favorite and he will lead one of the nation’s top offenses.
LSU still needs to get better on defense but this will be the second year in coordinator Blake Baker’s system. The Tigers allowed a point less per game in Baker’s first year and will look to continue that improvement with an influx of impact transfers on the defensive line and secondary.
The reason I like LSU comes down to value. I have the Tigers much closer to being the third favorite in the SEC with Alabama than the +480 and +700 odds suggest. While I agree that Texas and Georgia are the clear favorites, LSU having the most experienced starting quarterback of the contenders gives them a puncher’s chance.
I think the Tigers will make the CFP and they are worth a shot at +700 to win the SEC.
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SEC win total best bet
Kentucky Wildcats Under 4.5 (-102)
It feels like the bottom is about to fall out at Kentucky. Despite being the school’s winningest coach, Mark Stoops’ seat is blazing hot and he has already lost a large portion of the fanbase.
On the field, this is a completely re-tooled roster with more than 50 new players. We can debate if a complete roster restructure works in the transfer portal era. However, I would argue it’s much tougher to do that in a conference like the SEC, where the Wildcats face one of the nation’s toughest schedules with games against Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida and Louisville.
Kentucky is just 7-18 in the SEC since its 2021 Citrus Bowl win and are a program in flux after last season’s 4-8 campaign. I spoke to the dad of a Kentucky player this summer and he told me this year will either go very well or very badly with all the new faces. I lean towards it being the latter, and don’t see the Wildcats improving on last year’s four wins.
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