The finger pointing has begun. The elite teams are stumbling, and in cultures where losing is unacceptable, passion is leading to unacceptable reactions.
From Malachi Moore kicking a football in frustration as Vanderbilt secured a 40-year win against Alabama, to Missouri receiver Luther Burden III slamming his helmet on the bench, adversity has struck the SEC’s perceived powers. At least that’s what everyone thinks. In reality, it’s much ado about nothing. Competitors fueled by an insatiable desire to win will react in unusual ways when control is wrestled away. It’s part of the sport, and save for an action leading to physical harm, you’ll never hear me criticize a player for expressing their disappointment while in the heat of a battle.
But how will they react when the cameras are off, the games are over and the next opponent on the horizon is licking their chops? That’s how they’ll be judged. Alabama, Missouri and Tennessee are still in the hunt for an SEC title and spots in the College Football Playoff, but the heat is on to bounce back this week. Anything less than a win is, well, unusual.
Week 6 was quite unusual. You know what happened. Five top-11 teams in the AP poll fell, including the aforementioned threesome above. That’s never happened before in the SEC. While critics say it’s a sign that the big and mighty conference has brittle bones, it’s quite the opposite. Never has there been more talent in the Big Ten and SEC (the “Power Two”), and never has more talent been spread across those conferences because of NIL and the transfer portal. Don’t believe me? Look at the Group of Five, which has become a feeder system for the Big Ten and SEC, who are a combined 39-2 against the Group of Five.
Last week, losses by Bama and Tennessee were spearheaded by quarterbacks that left the Group of Five for the SEC (Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia and Arkansas’ Taylen Green). Indiana’s first 6-0 start since 1967 has been led by former MAC quarterback Kurtis Rourke.
The divide between the power conferences and everyone else is widening. The gaps among the big boys are shrinking.
Just a SECond
A few notes from the CBS Sports Research team to whet your appetite and get you thinking before Week 7’s picks:
- Three of the top four scoring defenses in the country reside in the SEC (Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee). All four allow fewer than 10 points per game.
- Texas has never lost to Oklahoma when the Longhorns are ranked No. 1 in the AP poll.
- Oklahoma hasn’t beaten the AP’s No. 1 team since 2007, a streak of four losses.
- Michael Hawkins is set to become the first true freshman to start at quarterback for Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
- Alabama has failed to cover the spread in its last two games following a loss.
- Florida is 1-10 in its last 11 games against ranked teams. The Gators’ one win was last season against No. 11 Tennessee.
- Ole Miss is 1-7 on the road in its last eight games against ranked teams.
- All four FBS games for Vanderbilt this season have been decided by one possession.
- Alabama has won 79 straight games at home against unranked teams.
Picks
Straight up: 49-11 | Against the spread: 29-24-2
Picks use opening SportsLine consensus odds
Mississippi State at No. 5 Georgia: Talk about a mismatch. Mississippi State was already struggling with its starting quarterback, and now Blake Shapen is lost for the season, and replacement Michael Van Buren Jr.’s first two starts were both on the road in the SEC against top-five teams. Meanwhile, Georgia has rebounded nicely from its loss in the final seconds at Alabama two weeks ago. Georgia’s defense is also still terrifying (zero passing touchdowns allowed at home) and Mississippi State’s defense is something of a mess. MSU is allowing 37.8 points in its four games against FBS teams (all losses). However — Georgia is 1-11-1 against the spread in its last 13 games as a 20-point favorite. The trend continues. Pick: Mississippi State +33.5
Florida at No. 8 Tennessee: Will the real Tennessee offense please stand up? The Vols have struggled on the road offensively, scoring just 19.5 points in back-to-back road games in the SEC after opening the season at a blistering pace (63.7 ppg). The 19-14 loss at Arkansas was an eye opener for the Vols, who have struggled against 3-2-6 defenses of late. The good news for the Vols: Nico Iamaleava returns home to the safe confines of Neyland Stadium, where he is electric (and coach Josh Heupel has more confidence as a play-caller).
Florida has some momentum with back-to-back wins against Mississippi State and UCF, but this is a sizable bump in competition. Graham Mertz has to play without throwing picks, which he has done well of late. He actually leads the FBS hitting 80% or more of his passes in the last three games. Does that mean we should expect a close battle? The Vols are 13-4 against the spread in their last 17 home games as a double-digit favorite, but this is the largest spread as a favorite against the Gators in 30 years. The Vols bounce back with a vengeance on offense and cover. Pick: Tennessee -15.5
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU: The two best passing offenses in the SEC face off in the Magnolia Bowl. Considering the schedule for the Rebels, this might be a must-win for them after losing to Kentucky. Georgia remains on the schedule, so losing in Baton Rouge would certainly make that a must-win later this season. The lean here is with Ole Miss, despite the recent lack of offensive firepower in two SEC games, because of the Rebels’ defense, which has shown up time and again in every game. LSU’s defense has been a classic case of Jekyll and Hyde. Both quarterbacks will put up healthy numbers, but Ole Miss’ defensive line allows only 1.8 yards per rush (No. 1 in FBS) and will slow the Tigers’ running backs, which will be enough to pull off the win in Death Valley. Pick: Ole Miss -3
No. 21 Missouri at UMass: Mizzou traveling to UMass for a nonconference game in October is quite the decision. The Tigers need a bounce-back performance in the worst way after failing to show up for its last trip on the road at Texas A&M. The question is whether QB Brady Cook and his receivers can get back on the same page to cover the spread. He completed a career-worst 13 of 31 passes last week for a season-low 186 yards. Pick: Missouri -27.5
South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama: The pressure is on Alabama to pull itself up after the most disappointing loss of the last 17 years. Losing to Vanderbilt should be enough to ruffle the Tide into a frenzy against South Carolina. The Gamecocks are not capable of slowing the game like Vanderbilt, which held the ball for more than 42 minutes last week. The Tide’s defense is the weakness and is seemingly playing slow to the ball on most snaps. That won’t be the case against quarterback LaNorris Sellers and the Gamecocks’ offensive line, which has allowed 16 sacks in his four starts. Sellers has also thrown at least one interception in three straight games. Pick: Alabama -21
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma: Quinn Ewers is expected to return to the big stage again with an opportunity for another nationally-ranked win after drilling Michigan in Ann Arbor earlier this season. Will Ewers show any rust in his return? Oklahoma has won four straight in the series when both teams are ranked, including the upset last season. The Sooners’ offense, however, is so much less explosive than previous seasons, including 2023. The Sooners are simply not built to keep up with Texas’ pace. Still, Red River is unlike most rivalries in the country because of the 50/50 split among the fans in the stands. The seating arrangement at the Cotton Bowl leads to incredible momentum swings. Can the Sooners capitalize for at least one half? The Sooners will stay within two scores. Pick: Oklahoma +14.5
Vanderbilt at Kentucky: I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the opening line. Vanderbilt, fresh off defeating No. 1 Alabama, is a double-digit underdog to Kentucky, which upset Ole Miss on the road but was also pulverized at home to a middling South Carolina team. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas don’t lose money, so who am I to question them? Ahh, never mind that. Vanderbilt has a magic man at quarterback, and though they certainly expended a lot of energy last week in knocking off the Tide, the Commodores will do enough against the Wildcats’ otherwise strong defense. Pick: Vanderbilt +13.5
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets in Week 7 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.
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