The SEC title race may still be a mess after this week.
Six teams are still fighting for a trip to Atlanta, and if the favorites win their remaining games, five teams will end the season tied for second place in the standings. And that’s not even the most chaotic scenario.
Welcome to life in the era of megaconferences, where tiebreaker scenarios are so confusing that even the Big Ten’s mathematicians needed an additional 72 hours this week to discover Oregon had, indeed, secured a spot in its conference championship game.
The logjam of two-loss teams in the SEC prompted an interesting conversation this week: why would a two-loss team want to potentially penalize itself and miss the College Football Playoff by playing and losing in the SEC Championship Game?
“I’ve talked to other coaches, so I’ll just kind of give you the feeling from some other coaches that, you know, they don’t want to be in it,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin told reporters Monday. “You know, the reward to get a bye versus the risk to get knocked out completely … that’s a really big risk.”
The four highest-ranked conference champions are rewarded with a first-round bye. The problem for the SEC is a three-loss runner-up could miss the CFP. In fact, it appears likely based on the most recent CFP Rankings.
Kiffin certainly has a point. Georgia missed the CFP field last season after losing to Alabama in the SEC title game, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey still contends they should have been in the field.
But, again, that’s life. We don’t stop playing games in Week 10 or 11 because a top-10 team doesn’t want to risk missing the CFP with a loss in the final weeks of the regular season, so why are we acting like the SEC Championship Game is a bad thing? This is the schedule you agreed upon. This is the job you took. These are the rules you accepted. The coaches and athletic directors all had a say on how the conference should move forward without divisions when they discussed the format in countless meetings the last three years in the winter and spring.
Only No. 3 Texas and No. 15 Texas A&M control their destiny in the race for the SEC Championship Game, meaning if both teams win this week (Texas against Kentucky; Texas A&M at Auburn), a spot in the SEC title game will be up for grabs next week. After 13 years without the bitter rivals on the field, Nov. 30 might just be the biggest game in the storied rivalry’s history.
Just a SECond
A few notes from the CBS Sports Research team to chew on before we move forward with this week’s picks:
- Oklahoma is a double-digit underdog at home for the first time since 1997 (Texas A&M).
- A win this week would make Kalen DeBoer the first Alabama coach since 1931 (Frank Thomas) to win nine games in his first season leading the Tide.
- Vanderbilt hasn’t defeated LSU in Baton Rouge since 1951.
- Texas and Alabama co-lead the FBS with five straight games with two or more forced turnovers.
- Kentucky hasn’t defeated a top-three team on the road since 1964 (No. 1 Ole Miss).
- Ole Miss has won eight-plus games in four straight seasons for the first time since 1957-62.
- Florida averages 7.4 yards per play with quarterback DJ Lagway and only 5.4 yards without him on the field.
- Texas A&M is 2-2 when rushing for fewer than 200 yards.
- One more loss would give Auburn a fourth straight losing season for the first time since a five-year span from 1946-50.
- South Carolina (5-3) finished with a winning record in the SEC for the first time since 2017.
Picks
Straight up: 81-21 | Against the spread: 48-45-2
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Ole Miss at Florida
Florida has been playing much better since September, even as it dealt with debilitating injuries at quarterback. With DJ Lagway back on the field, the Gators suddenly seem to be a threat to potentially knock off Ole Miss, a playoff hopeful that drilled Georgia two weeks ago. The Gators are nearly 90 yards per game better on defense at home, and last week they held LSU to 4.1 yards per play, their best performance against an FBS team this season.
Ole Miss, however, seems to have cut back on the mistakes at inopportune times and the offense is clicking again, averaging 7.6 yards per game, the second-best average in the country behind Miami, which blew out the Gators at home in their season opener. Florida is better than it was in September and will show up again Saturday, but the Rebels’ defense has been on a tear (22 sacks in the last three games) and wins by a score. Florida +10.5
Kentucky at No. 3 Texas
I wrote Saturday after watching Texas in person that the Longhorns like to play with their food when they’re perfectly capable of devouring it. They’re more talented than practically every team on the schedule, yet they have some of the most boring outcomes. They’re not too flashy, just solid as heck. Still, Texas co-leads the country with seven wins by 19-plus points and has held five opponents to 10 points or fewer. Kentucky is playing better in its last two games and has covered the spread in each contest. No upset here, but Texas will again play competently on offense with Quinn Ewers (21 straight games with a passing touchdown) and the defense will smother a weak Wildcats offense. Pick: Kentucky +20.5
Louisiana Tech at Arkansas
Louisiana Tech had had a rough season, and though frustrating, the Bulldogs finally broke through with a 12-7 win last week against a solid Western Kentucky team on the road. Louisiana Tech’s last five games have been decided by one possession and an average of five points. Its only loss by double digits this season was a 10-point drop in Week 2 against North Carolina State.
The Hogs’ offense has been able to move the ball throughout the season but can’t complete drives. They struggled against an elite Texas unit last week (season-low 231 yards). What is the issue for the Hogs for most of the season? Turnovers, penalties and inconsistency in the red zone (77th nationally). Louisiana Tech ranks 12th in total defense and is built to stop the run. Quarterback Taylen Green and running back Ja’Quinden Jackson will pick their spots and find some holes against the Bulldogs’ defense as they reach bowl eligibility and secure Sam Pittman another year on the job. Pick: Louisiana Tech +22
It’s rare that a team has a “get-right” game on the road this late in the season, but Missouri lucked out with Mississippi State struggling in Jeff Lebby’s first season. You gotta love Mizzou’s fight, even in a loss last week at South Carolina. The Tigers rallied from a 15-point deficit on the road and took the lead in the final 70 seconds before South Carolina’s magical, game-winning touchdown drive. Mississippi State’s defense is among the nation’s worst in all categories, ranking 127th overall (460.8 yards per game). Missouri has won 13 straight against unranked teams, the sixth-best streak in the FBS. Missouri -7.5
No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma
This is a sneaky good game on the schedule. Oklahoma’s strong defense against Jalen Milroe, who has been an absolute stunner in road games for most of the season. Milroe smoked LSU two weeks ago with four rushing touchdowns, but the Sooners’ defense could make it much more challenging to score points in Norman, especially after the Sooners rested during a bye week.
Oklahoma is on the precipice of breaking records no coach wants on their résumé: another loss would give Oklahoma five straight conference losses for the first time in its history. The Sooners have only played two conference games at home but lost both by double digits. They should have beaten Missouri on the road two weeks ago, but a late scoop ‘n score sank the Sooners, who turned it over a season-high four times. The Sooners can’t score (91st nationally) and Alabama can explode against practically any defense. The Tide roll. Alabama -14
No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn
All Texas A&M has to do is beat Auburn to set up possibly the biggest game in Texas-Texas A&M history. Despite the one-win Tigers’ struggles on offense, something must be said about playing a night game inside Jordan-Hare Stadium. This will be the first SEC night game of the season at Auburn, and the crowd will be amped. This is a dangerous spot for the Aggies, who were beaten two years ago at night in this venue.
That’s why the spread is only three, but the Aggies have too much firepower on offense with Marcel Reed now leading it at quarterback. Auburn has yet to score more than 21 points in SEC play (a 27-21 loss at home to Oklahoma), and QB Payton Thorne hasn’t improved as much as we hoped throughout the season. The Tigers have dropped to 127th in turnover margin. Auburn has covered in its last five games against top-15 teams, but that streak ends as the Aggies win by a touchdown. Texas A&M -3
Vanderbilt at LSU
This is a difficult pick, particularly at press time with the status of Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia up in the air. Pavia exited the South Carolina game two weeks ago in the fourth quarter with an apparent injury, and late last week during an open date coach Clark Lea said he’ll be “between questionable and probable” for LSU. Meanwhile, LSU is a bit of a dumpster fire at the moment after suffering three straight losses. Players are back-talking Brian Kelly, and the coach is chastising them on the sideline. The offense has suddenly looked inept, too, averaging only 17 points in the last three games. LSU is backed into a corner, but Tiger Stadium at night will get the Tigers back on track. LSU -7.5
Other picks
UTEP at No. 11 Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee -42
UMass at No. 10 Georgia
Pick: UMass +42
Wofford at No. 18 South Carolina
Pick: Wofford +42.5
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