Safe or risky? How Patrick Mahomes, Fernando Mendoza impacted NFL's 2026 schedule decisions

As the NFL schedule makers navigated the innumerable iterations of the 2026 NFL schedule, they took risks on some big quarterback decisions and remained conservative on others.

Scheduling Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes for “Monday Night Football” on Week 1 was their first risk. Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December and continues to rehabilitate toward a return. League executives said Friday they did not have inside information about Mahomes’ health or timeline.

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“As far as Patrick Mahomes, look, we didn’t know anything more than anyone else,” NFL executive vice president of media distribution Hans Schroeder said. “But the Chiefs are an incredible story. They’re one of the most popular teams in the league right now. They’ve been on an incredibly successful run for a number of years now and have built a hugely popular fan base. So we went into the year planning to play the Chiefs in the same number of windows.

“We didn’t know anything more than you did, but we were certainly hoping Patrick would be back Week 1.”

The Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos on Sept. 14 in what the league will also hope is Denver quarterback Bo Nix’s return from a broken ankle in the divisional round.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Thursday on NFL Network that Mahomes is “doing great right now” as he rehabilitates for seven hours a day and “wants more.”

“He’s making progress, but you don’t know …” Reid said. “If it’s Pat[’s desire], he’d go play today. But that’s not where we’re at here. We’ve got time and let’s see where we’re at.”

Reid said he did not share information with the schedule-makers, joking about the toll of the league’s increasingly ambitious international slate.

“I don’t give them anything, dadgumit,” Reid said. “You give them too much, you’re going to be playing over in Australia dadgumit.”

The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers will play in Melbourne, Australia on Thursday night of the first week.

How many eyes on the first overall pick?

The Tennessee Titans selected Miami quarterback Cam Ward first overall last season. They played in zero prime-time games during his rookie year and are scheduled for zero again in his sophomore year.

And Ward’s successor as the first overall pick? Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s debut date remains in question as he joins veteran Kirk Cousins in the Las Vegas Raiders quarterback room. But Mendoza or not, the NFL will not guarantee the Raiders a prime-time game.

“Nobody knows if or when Mendoza might play,” NFL vice president of broadcasting planning Mike North said. “It’s certainly something that would be great if we knew. We don’t. But they went out and signed a very competent quarterback. And if they find themselves playoff relevant and hovering around .500 in the middle of the season, they might be a little more reluctant to pull the trigger and move to the rookie.

“If they’re playoff relevant, they will find themselves in a bigger national television window, whether it’s Sunday night, Monday night or just a bigger national footprint on a Sunday afternoon.”

The NFL has the ability to flex late-season games to prime-time windows. They did not flex the Titans last year but could flex the Raiders this year if Las Vegas exceeds competitive expectations. The Raiders and Titans join the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins as teams scheduled for zero prime-time windows this year.

In comparison, the Los Angeles Rams have seven prime-time appearances followed by several teams with six or five.

“That’s what flexible scheduling is for,” North said. “That’s why we put it in. That’s why we work with our partners every year to ensure that the teams that have played their way into bigger television windows have an opportunity to be rewarded when we get into November and December and the crystal ball isn’t always as clear as we hoped.”

Competitive potential, rather than star power, will dictate schedule, Schroeder said. Four of the five teams shut out of prime time won just three games last year. The Miami Dolphins won seven but have since began a thorough rebuild that has featured a change at head coach, general manager and quarterback.

The key to earning a flexed prime-time window?

“We don’t draft our way into prime time,” Schroeder said. “We play our way into prime time.”

Last year, the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills faced off Week 1 on “Sunday Night Football.” The matchup of recent MVPs in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen lived up to its billing, the Bills coming back from a 15-point deficit to edge the Ravens, 41-40.

Each team fired its coach at season’s end.

And now, the still-high-profile quarterbacks will face off at 1 p.m. ET Sunday on Nov. 1.

League executives cited that scheduling decision as a defense of their Sunday and broadcast interest as weekday and streaming partnerships expand.

“The Sunday 1 o’clock window still matters,” North said. “It matters to the league, it matters to our partners, it matters to our fans. No question you could put Baltimore-Buffalo in any of our prime-time packages and any one of our partners would’ve been thrilled to get it and you might’ve had 18 or 20 million people watching that game. As a 1 o’clock anchor for CBS in Week 8, it may get to 75% of the country there. As a lead into a 4:25 doubleheader window featuring the Chiefs [at Broncos], you might actually have more people watching that game on CBS Sunday at 1 o’clock than you might have if it was on Monday night or Thursday night.

“So obviously, perfectly good enough for prime time. No hesitation to have it anchor a 1 o’clock window. It reaffirms our commitment to keeping the Sunday afternoons strong.”

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