Record: 55-52. Pace: 83-79. Change on 2025: +4.
The Diamondbacks dropped the opener of The Most Important Series of the Season™, losing 3-2 in ten innings to the Pirates. Merrill Kelly pitched well, and Max Kepler gave Arizona a 2-0 lead. But a throwing error by Kelly allowed a key Pittsburgh run, and Juan Morillo then gave up the tying score, which pushed the contest into extras. The Diamondbacks were unable to take advantage of a major Pirates gaffe, stranding the Manfred Man. A ball which was clanked off the glove of Ildemaro Vargas let the home team walk off, but the key stat tonight was the D-backs going just 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position. And one of those hits didn’t score a run either.
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But to focus on the positives. Merrill Kelly continued his resurgence. He finished June with an ERA above six (6.11, to be precise). But since the calendar turned to July, he has been much improved. Tonight, he allowed only an unearned run over 5.2 innings, on four hits – all of which were singles. He walked one and struck out six. [That is still an area of concern. Through nineteen starts last year, he had 7 or more K’s eight times: he hasn’t gone past six at all this year] He did hit a batter, Pirates’ rookie Esmerlyn Valdez wearing a pitch around the wrist area, and having to leave the game in obvious discomfort. Hopefully, there’s no serious damage there.
Through five innings, both Kelley and his opposite number – confusingly, called M. Keller – were basically cruising. Each side has managed to advance only one runner past first-base to that point. In the top of the second, Max Kepler led off with a single, advanced to third on a pair of outs, but was stranded there when Ildemaro Vargas grounded out. For the Pirates, they got a two-out single in the bottom of the fifth, and the runner stole second before being left there. Kelly even got a pick-off, ending the fourth by nailing the pinch-runner who had come in to replace Valdez. Rather embarrassing for them, I imagine.
Both pitchers were also being highly efficient. Through five innings, Keller had needed just 63 pitches, and Kelly less than a handful more at 67. I particularly enjoyed this strikeout by Kelly which ended the fifth inning. None of the six pitches in the zone, and zero contact by the batter on his three swings. However, my hopes of a quick recap foundered thereafter, as neither starting pitcher would make it through the sixth. Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo singled to lead off the top of the frame, though Gabriel Moreno would strike out looking, on a master-class of ABS by the Pirates catcher, which reversed two balls to strikes, by very narrow margins.
[Conversely, Moreno was 0-for-2 in his challenges tonight. Though it is worth noting that the team’s overall challenge rate when on defense is still 66.7%, significantly better than the MLB average of 58.1%.]
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Ketel Marte then singled to load the bases. He’d probably be grateful if I left it at that, since this isn’t exactly the type of hit which he will be reposting on his Instagram feed. A squibber off the end of the bat, it had an exit velocity of just 27.5 mph, but was perfectly placed to the right-hand side of the pitcher. The only two lower exit velo by a D-back this year were both bunts, by Jose Fernandez and Kepler. The last D-back with a hit which came slower off the bat? Pavin Smith (remember him?) on this hit in September 2024, a whopping 25.8 mph. [And yes: it says “error” on the video, but it was a hit in the box-score] Anyway, it loaded the bases and Kepler doubled in two runs (above).
Unfortunately, that was all Arizona could do. Marte was easily out at home, trying to score on a contact play off the bat of Tyler Locklear, and Adrian Del Castillo grounded out. Still, a 2-0 lead to the D-backs. It didn’t stay that way. Kelly allowed a one-out single, and then on his third pickoff throw over made a terrible throw which skidded up the line towards right field. The runner easily reached third, and scored on a subsequent single. A two-out walk ended Kelly’s night. Juan Morillo ended the threat, leaving two on base, and got three further outs in the seventh to keep Arizona ahead. Jonathan Loaisiga: not so much, with a pair of two-out doubles (around the ejection of the Pirates manager for arguing checked-swing calls) locking things back up at 2-2.
The Arizona offense basically went overboard after Kepler’s hit. Ryan Waldschmidt had a one-out double in the sixth (and also had a very nice play at the wall), while Ildemaro Vargas singled in the ninth and moved to second on a balk. That was it. Even when gifted a runner at second in the tenth, the D-backs came up empty. Corbin Carroll had bad luck, lining into an out at 103 mph. Perdomo should have been the second out, but a throwing error put men on second and third with one out. However, Moreno took a called third strike and Kepler was unable to repeat his earlier magic. Though with three hits on the night, it’s hard to blame him specifically.
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It drops the D-backs back into a tie with the Pirates for the third wild-card. On the other hand, the Phillies lost to the Marlins, and the Cardinals are losing to the Cubs. So we aren’t the only team with NL wild-card aspirations to lose to a rival tonight.
Click here for details, at Fangraphs.com
Captain Jack Sparrow: Juan Morillo, +19%
Long John Silver: Perdomo, +18%; Kelly, +16%
Blackbeard: Gabriel Moreno, -33%
Calico Jack: Loasiga, -19%; Carroll, -15%; Locklear, -12%; Barrosa, -11%; Del Castillo, -10%
Comment of the night to chwalter:
Same two teams tomorrow night, with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound for the D-backs. Another 3:40 pm start there, so see you for that. And don’t forget: nobody said it would be easy…
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