Reviewing Leo Carlsson’s First 82 Games

It’s Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson’s 20th birthday. The 2023 second-overall pick is now one season’s worth of games into his NHL career.

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Through 82 games, Carlsson has tallied 19 goals and 22 assists for 41 points, an exact .5 points per game pace.

His 19 goals before his 20th birthday are the most scored in Ducks’ franchise history by a teenager and the third most in NHL history scored by a Swedish teenager, trailing only Lucas Raymond (20) and Gabriel Landeskog (22).

Carlsson has missed 33 games to this point in his career due to various injuries and a game management plan to start the 2023-24 season in which he would only play two games per week.

The idea behind the game management was to allow him to build strength in-season, recover, study the NHL game at a distance, and avoid hitting a “rookie wall” later in the season.

The approach to starting Carlsson’s career was unorthodox, but the parties involved seem encouraged by the returns and confident that he can take the next steps in his development to realize his potential.

He was drafted with the highest selection the Ducks franchise has ever had after posting a top-five draft year from any SHL player in history. He was one of four players with franchise-altering potential available in the 2023 draft (Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov) and was/is the Ducks top prospect in franchise history.

Now that Carlsson has played a rookie season’s amount of games in the NHL, it would seem fair to evaluate his progression as that potential cornerstone piece set to be the focal point of the organization as they hope to transition into contention.

The Polished

When he was selected, Carlsson was evaluated as more of a plotting, 200-foot center who could potentially impact a game like Anze Kopitar or Sasha Barkov.

His skating was his perceived weakness, but from the second he stepped on the ice, he was flying through neutral zones into offensive zones and making highly skilled plays downhill at high speeds with the puck on his stick. He’s a far more electric player than he was given credit for coming into his rookie season.

Carlsson’s unique blend of reach and pace allows him to protect pucks as he builds speed. He can either take pucks wide after offensive zone entry or cut back on a dime to buy himself space and transport pucks to more dangerous areas of the ice.

He processes plays at a supremely high level and allows defenders to gravitate toward him before making the most optimal play available, whether that be to get a shot off or dish the puck to a teammate cutting to the net.

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Defensively, Carlsson is already one of the more impactful F3 forecheckers in the NHL. He acutely diagnoses opposing breakouts and disrupts progression up ice, killing rush opportunities before they start.

When plays advance beyond his position, he remains a threat to steal pucks with a perfectly timed and unanticipated stick lift, after which he turns them back up ice for a quick counter.

When in tight, he displays some of the better hands in the league, and though his release isn’t all-world, he shoots pucks smartly through traffic or places them well enough to force goaltenders into making difficult saves.

The Unrefined

Though he’s often the Ducks’ best player game-to-game and one who plays beyond his years, there still remains ample room for improvement, an exciting concept for the organization and a formidable one for opponents.

It has taken some time for Carlsson to adjust to the smaller ice surface in North American rinks and to the speed at which the NHL game is played. Early last season, he’d often misjudge how much time he had with the puck on his stick, leaving him susceptible to getting his pocket picked.

He is making quicker decisions in the most dangerous areas of the ice (within ten feet of either blueline), but the decisions themselves could use some ironing. He’s been prone to miscalculated passes and turnovers in those areas of late.

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Nineteen goals and 41 points in 82 games is a quality stat line for a player who immediately started playing in the NHL the season following his draft. However, given the amount of dangerous opportunities he generates, his finishing rate and plays leading to goals will need to increase to match his impact in most other facets of the game. He’s left some points on the board.

Carlsson has been as diligent as can be expected of an NHL teenager in defensive zone coverage early in his career but could stand to leverage his size, driving through the hands of attacking players and emerging from battles with the puck on his stick more often. He uses his size expertly in open ice but will need to translate that skill to tighter areas.

The impact of faceoffs tends to be exaggerated when analyzing the NHL game. However, Carlsson is winning his draws at a 35.5% clip to this point in his career, often losing them as clean as can be. It’s been difficult for him to explore his offensive impact when he’s having to chase down and win pucks back for the first ten-plus seconds of a given shift, expending time and energy in the process.

Going Forward

Like many on the Ducks’ roster, Carlsson’s production has taken a hit this season. He’s only managed 12 points in 27 games and only one goal in his seven games since returning to the lineup following an upper-body injury.

He will represent Sweden at the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off from Feb. 12 through Feb. 20, where he’ll serve as the youngest player at the tournament by nearly two and a half years.

His confidence has never wavered, though his impact and production have as the Ducks try to navigate injuries, sort out line combinations, and decipher a winning formula.

Carlsson has done nothing but justify where he was selected in his draft and remains on track to develop into the franchise player the Ducks will need as they hope to climb out of their extended rebuild.

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