Recent history makes strong case for Patriots drafting WR in first round

Recent history makes strong case for Patriots drafting WR in first round originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Kendrick Bourne can try all he wants to recruit Tee Higgins to New England. The Patriots can hope and pray that Ja’Lynn Polk bounces back after a nightmare rookie campaign.

But if the Patriots are dead-set on finding a true No. 1 wide receiver, their best bet might be the first round of the NFL Draft.

We know what New England fans are thinking: Didn’t we go through this in 2019 with N’Keal Harry, who lasted just three underwhelming seasons in Foxboro? And do we really trust de facto general manager Eliot Wolf to use a first-round pick on a wideout after seemingly whiffing on Polk and Javon Baker in 2024?

Those are valid concerns. But we have good news: Since that fateful 2019 draft, the chances of finding a productive receiver in the first round have been very high.

Below is a list of every receiver taken in Round 1 in the last five years (2020 to 2024). Of the 28 wideouts in total, 18 currently rank among the NFL’s top 50 pass-catchers this season. Add in elite wideouts Chris Olave and Brandon Aiyuk — whose 2024 campaigns were cut short due to injury — and you essentially have a 71 percent chance (20 of 28) of landing a top-50 receiver with a first-round pick.

(Note: You can click or tap each column to sort the list by a specific stat.)

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The Patriots currently own the No. 2 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with a 3-12 record and are guaranteed no worse than the fifth overall pick. So, what are the odds they hit on an elite wideout with a top-10 pick?

Of the eight receivers taken in the top 10 since 2020, five have at least one 1,000-yard season to their name (we’re counting Drake London, who needs just 28 yards in his final two games to hit 1,000), while the other three are rookies — all of whom have at least 700 receiving yards.

By the standards of the Patriots, whose top wideout, DeMario Douglas, has 541 receiving yards, that’s essentially a 100 percent hit rate for top-10 picks.

Two other data points of note from this list:

• First-round picks account for seven of the top 10 receiving yards leaders this season (eight if you include rookie tight end Brock Bowers), and 10 of the top 14 (11 including Bowers).

• If the Patriots are interested in trading down, six receivers drafted between No. 15 and No. 23 since 2020 have surpassed 1,000 yards this season: Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brian Thomas, Jerry Jeudy and Zay Flowers.

The bottom line? A receiver taken in the first round has a very good chance of being productive based on recent draft history. The only true “busts” on the list above are Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Kadarius Toney, Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson. That’s five out of 28, or under 18 percent.

The obvious choice for New England in 2025 would be to draft Colorado two-way superstar Travis Hunter, who just won the Biletnikoff Award as the best wide receiver in college football. The Patriots could deploy Hunter primarily as a cornerback opposite Christian Gonzalez while working him in on offense, or make him a full-time wideout.

If the Patriots want to target a pure wide receiver, however, they also could consider trading down and landing Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan or Missouri’s Luther Burden III, both of whom likely will go in Round 1. Ohio State wideout Emeka Egbuka could work his way into the first round, as well.

New England has a host of other needs, from offensive tackle to edge rusher to cornerback. But if finding a true No. 1 receiver for Drake Maye is the goal, using a first-rounder on a WR in either 2025 or 2026 is the safest bet.