Job security in the NFL is effectively nonexistent. Whether you’re a player, executive or – certainly – a coach, just about everyone, no matter how good or established, is on borrowed time.
This year’s head coaching cycle unfolded as a hugely active one, 10 jobs changing hands – tied for the most ever in one offseason. Even long-established winners like Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott chose to move on or were compelled to do so. Pete Carroll, one of three men ever to win a Super Bowl and college national championship, only lasted a year in Las Vegas. Two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski was shown the door in Cleveland, though another opened for him in Atlanta.
Advertisement
The takeaway? Whether young, old, entrenched or not, NFL head coaches know the mandate – regardless of circumstances: Win or else. With that in mind – a very open mind given the amount of turnover the league just experienced – these could be the next 10 head coaches to go, their hot seats gauged from low simmer to building boil entering the 2026 season:
Rather atypical to include a man who just sparked a turnaround for the team with which he won three rings as a player, elevating the Pats from last place in the AFC East in 2024 to Super Bowl 60 entry during his first year under their headset – and deservedly winning Coach of the Year honors for the second time in light of his effort. Yet Vrabel’s overexposed off-field relationship with former NFL reporter Dianna Russini has created a bizarre offseason for the defending AFC champs, the coach even missing part of the NFL draft to spend time with his family. And while the Patriots have given no indication Vrabel is on thin ice, off-field distractions can only be tolerated for so long – particularly if the product on the field begins to suffer or if what’s been a loyal locker room to Vrabel loses its faith in him. It’s a situation that bears continued watching, especially whenever more info about Vrabel and Russini leaks … which seems nearly inevitable.
It’s almost patently unfair to include a rookie coach – nearly as unfair as McDermott losing this job after the Bills lost a divisional-round playoff game in overtime thanks to a highly debatable Josh Allen interception. But owner Terry Pegula made it clear after firing McDermott that he justifiably expects this team to be in the Super Bowl. And soon. He also said “there’s a lot of people that want to look at taking this job – there’s a lot of interest.” Ultimately, 36-year-old Brady, who’s close to Allen, was promoted from his offensive coordinator role. But − now matter how good the vibes are currently − if a team that reached postseason each of the last seven years under McDermott doesn’t at least remain on the cusp of reaching Super Sunday for the first time since the 1993 season, who knows what Pegula might do next?
Advertisement
This is an indictment of an unstable organization and an impatient league, not Kubiak, who’s fresh off earning a Super Bowl ring as the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive coordinator. From a Silver and Black perspective, when including interims, the Raiders have had five head coaches over the past five seasons. More broadly, while the selection of Fernando Mendoza is understandably creating optimism in Sin City, the last four teams to draft a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick have made a coaching change midway through the ensuing season – Urban Meyer (Jaguars) and Frank Reich (Panthers) failing to last a full campaign despite being hired to work with the next face of those respective franchises. And while nothing suggests Kubiak’s nascent tenure will be disastrous, NFL does stand for “Not For Long,” and recent history is a troublesome harbinger.
More: 2026 NFL record projections: Win totals for all 32 teams, playoff predictions
He’s won nearly two-thirds of his games through seven seasons and only missed the playoffs only once − which largely explains and justifies his recently signed contract extension (for whatever they’re worth − just ask Kliff Kingsbury). Yet the Pack barely qualified for the past three postseasons, the No. 7 seed in each, and only have one playoff win since trading Aaron Rodgers three years ago. LaFleur’s offensive playcalling has come under scrutiny. And a coach who pushed back on the need for a No. 1 receiver – after experiencing so much success with Davante Adams early in his tenure – learned his fleet of No. 2-caliber receivers was unhappy last year and unsure of their roles. Some departures from that group should make the division of responsibility more apparent, but what won’t help will be OLB Micah Parsons’ early season absence (ACL) nor the specter that RB Josh Jacobs could face a suspension at some point for his off-field conduct. Not an ideal set of circumstances for a coach and team operating in the tightly grouped NFC North quartet.
Yet another seemingly absurd inclusion. Sirianni has taken Philly to the playoffs in each of his five seasons, the Eagles reaching two Super Bowls during that stretch and capturing the Lombardi Trophy just a year ago. And even though Sirianni’s sometimes brash personality can rub some the wrong way, his players basically adore him. And yet it’s been a convulsive offseason in the City of Brotherly Love – the arrival of rookie OC Sean Mannion, departure of longtime O-line guru Jeff Stoutland and trade of WR1 A.J. Brown, a three-time team captain, the most notable changes. And they all seemingly tie back to QB Jalen Hurts in one way or another. With a franchise-record .694 career winning percentage, Sirianni should be bulletproof. But this is Philadelphia, and big changes wouldn’t be a shock if a veteran-laden team implodes amid its new variables.
Advertisement
Owner Josh Harris, who bought this team three years ago, has generally embraced stability with his pro clubs in other sports, so this isn’t to suggest that the ax is about to fall here. But Quinn, who guided the Falcons to a Super Bowl during his second season in Atlanta, could become a victim of his own success after Washington stunningly made the NFC championship game in 2024, his first year in the nation’s capital. Much is likely to depend on the progression of QB Jayden Daniels, who had perhaps the best rookie season in NFL history in 2024 but sustained multiple injuries last year, refueling some pre-draft concerns about his durability. Now he’ll be working with an unproven offensive coordinator (David Blough) and new left tackle while hoping a revamped defense can relieve some pressure to score piles of points. If Daniels doesn’t turn it around, it’s conceivable Quinn and his staff won’t get another chance to do so, either.
The only holdover HC in the AFC North, he should have a golden opportunity to excel in 2026 … yet might also find it’s one fraught with peril. Taylor and QB Joe Burrow led Cincy to a Super Bowl in 2021 but have only returned to the playoffs one time since – injuries (primarily to Burrow), inconsistency and an unbalanced team undermining the operation as a whole. The organization has taken uncharacteristic steps in order to maximize Burrow’s championship window – in-season trades, hefty spending in free agency, even contract restructures. But if success doesn’t come to fruition in 2026 − and amid speculation about Burrow’s level of faith in the franchise − Taylor, now entering his eighth season, could wind up as the next major adjustment.
Advertisement
From the optimist’s perspective, he’s coaching in a subpar division for a franchise that values continuity and stability and has captured three NFC South crowns in four seasons. From the pessimist’s perspective, Bowles’ overall record with the Bucs is 36-36 (including one postseason win), his defenses have been average at best, and the team collapsed to an 8-9 record despite a 6-2 start in 2025, costing Tampa Bay a playoff berth. Bowles, who hired Zac Robinson as his fifth offensive coordinator, gets another crack in 2026 – and with a team that bid adieu to veteran leaders like Mike Evans and Lavonte David – but the margin for error seems significantly reduced. Having unhappy team captains (Baker Mayfield, Vita Vea) doesn’t help.
His maiden voyage produced a 3-14 record, albeit with a talent-deficient team that offloaded former cornerstones Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline. Despite its challenges and chronic quarterback quandary, Glenn’s team was generally competitive in the first three months of the 2025 season. But the Jets went to pieces down the stretch, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose five consecutive games by at least 23 points apiece – a collapse that also sparked speculation that players quit on Glenn. Now, he’s in the unique position of running a group with three first-round picks in next year’s draft, where the Jets are expected to take their next swing at obtaining a franchise quarterback. As for the present? The Jets selected three times in Round 1 of this year’s draft, meaning the talent quotient has gone up. Yet trying to meld the young parts, along with several free agent pickups and new QB1 Geno Smith, could be a tall order – even if failure probably gets the NYJ right where many fans want them, namely at or near the top of the 2027 draft. What could it all mean for Glenn, a coach who specializes in defense and might not be the ideal candidate to shepherd an incoming rookie QB a year from now? Seems like a tough needle to thread.
Dec 28, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel and New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn shake hands after the game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
After a highly encouraging 8-2 start in 2025, his team lost its final nine games – luring Philip Rivers, 44, out of retirement to start three of those defeats after the seasoning-ending loss of QB Daniel Jones (Achilles) – and falling short of the playoffs. Again. And while co-owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon, in her first go-round as the team’s CEO following her father’s death, quickly settled on keeping Steichen and GM Chris Ballard in 2026, she was also unsparing in her directive.
Advertisement
“We have been very clear with Chris and Shane that giving them another opportunity means the sense of urgency for them to deliver and perform has never been higher,” she said, among other pointed remarks, after the 2025 campaign wrapped.
But are they set up for success? Ballard’s bold acquisition of Gardner cost Indy its 2026 first-round draft pick and next year’s. While Jones has looked fit physically in training camp, he’s coming off a major injury and hasn’t exactly been the most consistent player throughout his career. Worse, re-signing him and Alec Pierce (for four years and $114 million), who’s never had 50 catches in a season during his four-year career nor been WR1, essentially forced the trade of WR Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh while other key veterans also had to depart. Pierce also underwent ankle surgery that leaves his Week 1 availability in doubt.
The AFC South doesn’t have a rep as the league’s most imposing division, but the Colts, despite their hot start, finished well behind Jacksonville and Houston in 2025. And with the Titans expected to be improved this year, it sure seems like Steichen and Ballard will struggle to meet Irsay-Gordon’s explicit demand.
All NFL news on and off the field. Sign up for USA TODAY’s 4th and Monday newsletter.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking 10 NFL coaches on hot seat. Nick Sirianni, Mike Vrabel absurd choices?
Read the full article here
