Eleven. Twelve. Five. Twenty-four. Twenty. Nine. Nineteen. Twenty-two.
No, those aren’t the winning numbers from a table game at South Point casino. But one of those numbers could represent the first driver to punch their ticket to the Championship 4 Sunday in the Mojave Desert, if the odds fall in their favor.
Racing Insights projects Kyle Larson will win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (5:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) and clinch a spot in the title race next month at Phoenix Raceway.
RELATED: Weekend schedule | Cup Playoffs standings
No matter which angle you look at Sunday’s 400-miler, everything leads back to the 33-year-old from Elk Grove, California. He’s a three-time Las Vegas winner, including the spring of 2021, when Larson earned his first of 26 victories and counting with the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team. His 426 laps led at 1.5-mile tracks are the most of all drivers this year, as is his 8.7 running position, and he’s led in 19 of the last 20 mile-and-a-half races.
Larson’s teammate, William Byron, is also expected to contend for the win, per Racing Insights. Byron’s recorded top 10s in each of the last five Vegas races, tying his active personal best clip at Talladega. He’s led in each of those five Sin City events and has averaged a whopping 42 points over his last 10 races at 1.5-mile circuits. As a whole, HMS has won five of the last nine races at Las Vegas.
MORE: How to watch NASCAR on USA Network
With as strong as Toyota has been this year, particularly in the playoffs, success at mile-and-a-half tracks has eluded them. The manufacturer is winless in six races in 2025, but it’s certainly not for a lack of speed. Denny Hamlin’s average finish of 20.33 at this track type is head-scratching, but he’s inside the top 10 in all five NASCAR Insights categories. He did, however, place 13th or worse in all five categories in the spring race at Las Vegas alone, as did Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe.
Don’t forget about Team Penske, either. At least one of their drivers has won a Round of 8 race in four of the last five years, and that’s paid off as the organization has scored three consecutive titles.
Las Vegas looks like just another stop on the schedule, but save for the championship race itself, Sunday’s 267-lapper is arguably the most important race of the season. A win in the city that never sleeps would allow for a playoff driver to rest soundly with a Championship 4 spot secured and prepare for Phoenix early, as the rest of the title contenders slug it out at Talladega and Martinsville.
FANTASY: Set your lineup | Make a 36 for 36 pick
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
CHRISTOPHER BELL: The four-time winner in 2025 has top fives at Las Vegas in three of the last five races, including runner-ups in the last two fall events. He’s been rock-solid through the playoffs thus far, earning 223 points, second-best only to teammate Chase Briscoe.
DENNY HAMLIN: Though he hasn’t earned the finishes at 1.5-mile tracks this year, Las Vegas has always been a solid track for the No. 11 team. He won the fall race in 2021 and has just one finish worse than 11th in the last six races in Sin City. His 12.78 average finish is ninth-best all-time.
JOEY LOGANO: The three-time champion has won at Las Vegas four times, and his Round of 8 wins in 2022 and 2024 have spearheaded two of the aforementioned titles. He’s earned the fewest points among remaining playoff drivers thus far, but the team’s survive-and-advance mentality can’t be quantified.
CHASE BRISCOE: The only playoff driver without a Championship 4 appearance, Briscoe’s statistically been the best driver this postseason with an average finish of 6.67 in six races. He’s won the pole at the last two 1.5-mile tracks the series has visited, so a strong Saturday could shape up well for Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN:Narrowly missing a Round of 8 spot, Chastain’s been sneaky good in the desert. His five top fives in seven Next Gen races are the most of all drivers, and he has the best average finish in that span, despite never scoring a win.
RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTH POINT 400:
Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.
*(P) denotes playoff driver
| Position | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson (P) |
| 2 | 24 | William Byron (P) |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell (P) |
| 4 | 11 | Denny Hamlin (P) |
| 5 | 12 | Ryan Blaney (P) |
| 6 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 7 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 8 | 22 | Joey Logano (P) |
| 9 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 10 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 11 | 9 | Chase Elliott (P) |
| 12 | 19 | Chase Briscoe (P) |
| 13 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 14 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 15 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 16 | 60 | Ryan Preece |
| 17 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 18 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 19 | 21 | Josh Berry |
| 20 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 21 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 22 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 23 | 71 | Michael McDowell |
| 24 | 42 | John H Nemechek |
| 25 | 4 | Noah Gragson |
| 26 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 27 | 7 | Justin Haley |
| 28 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 29 | 38 | Zane Smith |
| 30 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 31 | 35 | Riley Herbst |
| 32 | 34 | Todd Gilliland |
| 33 | 41 | Cole Custer |
| 34 | 88 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 35 | 10 | Ty Dillon |
| 36 | 51 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 44 | J.J. Yeley |
| 38 | 78 | Katherine Legge |
Read the full article here