Racing Insights: Watkins Glen lends itself to title favorites and playoff hopefuls

Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Watkins Glen International (2 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) marks the first of just three races remaining until the 16-driver postseason field is finalized.

For championship contenders, the annual trip to Upstate New York is a key opportunity to chase playoff points and improve their standing before the 10-race fight for the Bill France Cup commences Labor Day Weekend at Darlington Raceway. But for others, the seven-turn road course nestled in the Finger Lakes presents one of the final opportunities to score a playoff-altering victory.

RELATED: Watkins Glen schedule | Cup entry list

Shane van Gisbergen is the obvious favorite, heading to The Glen with three consecutive Cup Series road course wins in his pocket — all from the pole. According to NASCAR Insights, SVG leads the field in overall speed, long run speed and passing at road courses in the Next Gen car, while he’s also second in defense and sixth in restarts. The Kiwi displayed his restart prowess in the closing laps last year at Watkins Glen, going two-for-one in an overtime re-fire to take the lead in Turn 1.

But in a rare slip-up on the final lap, Chris Buescher snuck past SVG in the Carousel to earn his first and only victory of the season — which, unfortunately for him, came after already missing the playoffs.

Returning to Watkins Glen as the defending winner, the RFK Racing driver is again in jeopardy of missing the field of 16 postseason competitors. Finishing 22nd last week at Iowa, Buescher holds the 16th and final playoff spot by just 23 markers over teammate Ryan Preece. Road courses historically treat the No. 17 group well, as Buescher sits tied with Tyler Reddick for a series-best 15 top 10s in 21 Next Gen races. He’s the only driver with top 10s at The Glen in each of the last three seasons.

Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger is an underdog favorite this weekend as the 2014 Watkins Glen winner finds himself in a must-win position to make the playoffs. With a 10.8 average finish, The Glen is statistically Allmendinger’s best track on the circuit, the number placing him third amongst active drivers and ninth all time. According to NASCAR Insights, he’s top 10 in all five major categories in Next Gen road course races, making him an obvious threat to steal a playoff spot from the RFK Racing brigade.

A winner at the Indy Road Course in 2023, Michael McDowell is always a road course threat. He led the first 31 laps this year in the Chicago streets before a mechanical issue ended his day, but heads to New York with top fives pocketed in Mexico City and Sonoma. The Arizona native led laps in each of the last three races at The Glen, and according to NASCAR Insights, McDowell ranks as the best defender in Next Gen road course races. A win Sunday could most certainly be in the cards — and it would dramatically change the No. 71 Spire Motorsports team’s season.

But aside from SVG, according to Racing Insights, the heaviest favorites to bowl a strike at The Glen already sit atop the regular-season standings. Points leader William Byron can extend his Regular Season Championship lead over teammates Chase Elliott (minus-18) and Kyle Larson (minus-45) with a strong showing on Sunday, but it won’t be easy; the three have combined to win five of the last six races at the 2.45-mile road course. Elliott won in 2018 and 2019 before Larson nabbed back-to-back wins of his own in 2021 and 2022. A year later, Byron finally cashed in.

Byron’s results at the high-speed circuit have been inconsistent, even with the win in 2023, but no matter where the Cup Series heads, the Charlotte, North Carolina, native usually finds his way into contention. According to Racing Insights, Byron has the most laps run inside both the top five (2,806) and top 10 (3,824) this season, and is best in class with 910 laps led. Of his last 11 road course starts, he’s finished inside the top 10 eight times.

However, last year’s opening round playoff race at Watkins Glen had just two of the 16 playoff-eligible drivers finish inside the top 11. If that’s any indication of what Sunday’s 90-lapper could bring, we’re in for a wild weekend at the world-famous road course.

FANTASY: Set your lineup | Make a 36 for 36 pick

DRIVERS TO WATCH

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: SVG’s batting .400 with four Cup Series road course wins in 10 starts. A win Sunday would tie Chase Elliott for second all time with four consecutive road course wins (only to Jeff Gordon’s six), but more importantly, give the Trackhouse Racing driver an additional points cushion with the playoffs on the horizon.

KYLE LARSON: The 2021 Cup Series champion is responsible for two road course wins in the last eight races, but an average finish of 29th in four starts this year is third worst in the series. That said, he still ranks inside the top 10 of all five NASCAR Insights Next Gen road course categories and has a pair of Watkins Glen wins to his name.

AJ ALLMENDINGER: Allmendinger’s first of three Cup Series wins came at The Glen in 2014, and the Californian has finished sixth or better in six of his last 11 road course starts. He’s earned 11 top 10 finishes on lefts and rights since 2022, sixth best in the series, and that includes a pair of part-time seasons.

TY GIBBS: The winner of the inaugural In-Season Challenge has only trended up this summer, finishing inside the top 15 in seven of the last nine. Gibbs finished second in Chicago and has five top fives in the last 11 road course races. The No. 54 driver also owns an Xfinity Series win at The Glen.

DENNY HAMLIN: The longtime Joe Gibbs Racing driver certainly doesn’t light up road courses too often, but he’s found by far the most success at Watkins Glen. Hamlin’s lone road course win came in New York nine years ago and he has five top fives at the track in the last eight races. The native Virginian also scored two of the last six WGI poles.

KYLE BUSCH: The two-time Cup Series champion has been most consistent on road courses in 2025, earning top 10s in three of four races this year with a near-win at COTA. He’s a former winner at The Glen (2008, 2013) and is second all time with 249 laps led, only needing 13 to tie Jeff Gordon’s record.

CONNOR ZILISCH: The Xfinity Series standout is making his fourth career Cup start on Sunday and could be a legitimate factor. Zilisch won his Xfinity debut from the pole last year at The Glen and has an average finish of 2.3 in his last 10 series starts. Turning 19 just two weeks ago, he’s the youngest driver to earn six Xfinity wins.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

Read the full article here