Editor’s note: Projection updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.
The ebbs and flows of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are set for a crash course with arguably the biggest wild card yet. Sunday’s race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) trims the field of 12 remaining postseason contenders down to just eight as we begin the month-long countdown to Championship Weekend in Phoenix.
But before even thinking about a Championship 4 berth, a tall mountain stands in NASCAR’s backyard. The Roval’s 17-turn, 2.28-mile configuration completes a hexad of road-course races on the 2025 schedule with tight, technical corners that, in a sense, mimic tracks like Martinsville Speedway or New Hampshire Motor Speedway. It’s a unique beast compared to the other left- and right-hand events on the Cup calendar.
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While the playoffs are at the forefront, the projected winner isn’t — although at this point, it shouldn’t be a surprise. Racing Insights predicts that Shane van Gisbergen will win Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400, notching both his fifth consecutive road-course victory and fifth of the campaign.
The Kiwi’s meteoric rise in the Cup Series is trending in a historic direction. Leading a whopping 52% of road-course laps so far, SVG sits third all-time on the road with an 8.18 average finish (only to Hall of Famers Fireball Roberts and Buck Baker) and would become the first driver to earn his first six wins at road courses with a trip to Victory Lane on Sunday. He could also become the second driver to win five straight on road courses, matching Jeff Gordon’s clip from 1997-2000.
According to NASCAR Insights, SVG leads four of the five categories on road courses this year: speed, long-run pace, passing and restarts. The only outlier? Defense, which in all fairness might not even apply to the 36-year-old as he owns a 16.567-second win in Mexico City and an 11.116-second triumph at Watkins Glen — the two largest margins of victory at road courses since 1988.
The only driver able to dethrone van Gisbergen this season is Christopher Bell, winner at Circuit of The Americas. His road-course numbers are quietly incredible: top-five finishes in five of the last six (including three runner-ups), a playoff-driver best 175 points scored in 2025 and an average finish of 10th at the Roval. Bell’s inside the top six in four of NASCAR Insights’ five road-course categories.
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On the other side of the coin, SVG’s dominant season on the road has come at the expense of Hendrick Motorsports, an organization yet to win on lefts and rights this year after at least one win each season between 2018 and 2024. HMS leads all-time in nearly every major category on road courses: poles, wins, top fives, top 10s, laps led and average finish. But since Kyle Larson’s dominant win at the Roval last fall, the well has run dry.
Winless since before his Indianapolis 500-Coca-Cola 600 Double attempt, Larson owns victories in two of the last nine road-course events but has an average finish of 29th in the other seven. Mechanical issues derailed him early at both Sonoma Raceway and Watkins Glen International this year, but both times, Larson returned to the track and earned the Xfinity Fastest Lap point, despite his NASCAR Insights Speed Rating being outside the top 10.
Like Larson, Chase Elliott is a two-time Roval winner but hasn’t won on a road course since his 2021 playoff triumph. His numbers are still solid, though; Elliott leads all drivers with 11 top fives in the Next Gen car, and his average finish since the start of 2022 is second-best at 9.27 — only to SVG. The 2020 series champion struggled at Watkins Glen, but third-place finishes at Sonoma and Chicago, along with momentum coming off a win last weekend at Kansas Speedway, prove he can contend on Sunday.
But big picture, Toyota continues to have the hot hand overall this postseason, leading 1,124 of 1,681 laps the last five races and placing their drivers inside the top 10 44% of the time. Ford dominated the field two weeks ago at Loudon, but it’s been since 2018 when the manufacturer last won at the Roval with Ryan Blaney.
As the calendar flips to October, intensity ramps up. Tempers flare. Championship aspirations become realizations. But first, with 10 drivers vying for six remaining Round of 8 spots, surviving 109 laps at the Roval could make or break a driver’s season.
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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
TYLER REDDICK: The 2024 Regular Season Champion heads to the Roval in a pretty dire position, sitting 29 points below the cutline. Reddick averaged 40.3 points in each of the last three races there, best of the remaining playoff drivers, and totaled 166 in five road course races in 2025. With three career wins on left- and right-handers, it’s certainly possible the No. 45 driver reverses the skid and earns his first win of the season at the right time.
ROSS CHASTAIN: The first driver below the elimination line at 13 markers back, Chastain’s been solid on road courses … with the Roval as the exception. His average finish is 24th, his worst among active road courses. But he’s one of just eight drivers with over 100 laps led on this track type in the Next Gen car, and with his season hanging in the balance, expect the watermelon farmer to lean on Trackhouse Racing teammate SVG for a turnaround run at the Roval.
JOEY LOGANO: Not known as a road-course racer, the three-time series champion earned top 10s in six of the seven Roval races. He’s scored the second-most points at the track in the Next Gen car, and NASCAR Insights places him first on defense at road courses this season. His plus-13 gap over Chastain for a Round of 8 spot is more than manageable, based on his history.
BUBBA WALLACE: The Brickyard 400 winner has vastly improved at road courses as of late, and the Roval is arguably his best. Wallace averaged 33 points over the last races at the track and has a pair of top 10s in that span. At 26 points below the cutline, he’ll need a strong points day to advance, and that starts with qualifying; if he can stay toward the front, his fourth-best defense rating at road courses evidences that he can stay there.
AJ ALLMENDINGER: Always a threat at road courses, the Kaulig Racing driver earned the 2023 win at the Roval and has finished in the top six in his last three races at the track. All three of his Cup wins have come at road courses, and if a non-playoff driver other than SVG were to win, it could very well be the ‘Dinger.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400:
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.
*(P) denotes playoff driver
| Position | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 88 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 2 | 20 | Christopher Bell (P) |
| 3 | 24 | William Byron (P) |
| 4 | 45 | Tyler Reddick (P) |
| 5 | 5 | Kyle Larson (P) |
| 6 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 7 | 12 | Ryan Blaney (P) |
| 8 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 9 | 9 | Chase Elliott (P) |
| 10 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 11 | 19 | Chase Briscoe (P) |
| 12 | 1 | Ross Chastain (P) |
| 13 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 14 | 22 | Joey Logano (P) |
| 15 | 71 | Michael McDowell |
| 16 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 23 | Bubba Wallace (P) |
| 18 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 19 | 11 | Denny Hamlin (P) |
| 20 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 21 | 2 | Austin Cindric (P) |
| 22 | 60 | Ryan Preece |
| 23 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 24 | 38 | Zane Smith |
| 25 | 34 | Todd Gilliland |
| 26 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 27 | 41 | Cole Custer |
| 28 | 7 | Justin Haley |
| 29 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 30 | 4 | Noah Gragson |
| 31 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 32 | 35 | Riley Herbst |
| 33 | 10 | Ty Dillon |
| 34 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 35 | 21 | Josh Berry |
| 36 | 51 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 66 | Josh Bilicki |
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