Racing Insights: Stumbling playoff drivers expected to bounce back at Gateway

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs march on to World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) with many championship contenders already at a deficit after the opener at Darlington Raceway.

Twelve playoff drivers had some sort of issue last weekend in the Cook Out Southern 500, while just four Round of 16 drivers finished inside the top 10 — the fewest to ever do so in a playoff opener. For those who struggled in the South Carolina sun, relief could be on the way as NASCAR makes its annual stop in the St. Louis area.

RELATED: Gateway schedule | Playoff standings

According to Racing Insights, Christopher Bell is projected to win at the 1.25-mile egg-shaped oval and earn his first victory since rattling off three straight in the first month of the regular season. He’s among a group of projected top-eight finishers, seven of whom placed 12th or worse at Darlington.

Bell has never finished worse than 11th in three starts at Gateway, navigating the flat track to a career-best seventh-place finish there last year. He’s always performed well at shorter, flatter ovals, registering a pair of victories at both Phoenix Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway — both upcoming playoff tracks.

But while Joe Gibbs Racing has never won in St. Louis, Team Penske has. Racing Insights projects Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano to finish second and third, respectively; Blaney led last year’s race before running out of fuel coming to the white flag, while Logano won the inaugural event in 2022 and has an average finish of 3.0 — his best among all tracks. Austin Cindric, the beneficiary of Blaney’s fuel miscalculation and defending winner, has never finished worse than 13th at Gateway. Like Logano, WWT Raceway is Cindric’s best track on the circuit with an average finish of 8.3.

All four Hendrick Motorsports cars finished 17th or worse last week, but expect an improvement this weekend with Regular Season Champion William Byron, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott all projected to finish inside the top seven. Larson (plus-38) and Byron (plus-25) both sit comfortably above the cutline with two races until the first set of eliminations at Bristol Motor Speedway, but Chase Elliott (plus-9) has much more work to do. Elliott’s finished outside the top 25 in two of the last four races after starting the year with 23 consecutive top-20 results. If he can win on Sunday, the perennial most popular driver would become the fourth driver to win in his 350th series start.

But on the other side of the coin, some of the playoff drivers tighter on the bubble are at risk of continuing their postseason slide into “The Lou.” Austin Dillon, winner three weeks ago at Richmond Raceway, is projected to finish 21st despite coming home sixth in last year’s race. He also won Richmond last year, a track with similar characteristics, so it’s certainly not out of the cards to see the 35-year-old in the mix come Sunday. According to Racing Insights, Dillon will likely advance in the playoffs if he can average 30 points over the next two races. He enters Gateway eight points below the cutline.

Maybe the biggest question mark of them all is road-course ace Shane van Gisbergen, who won four times in the regular season but essentially used up his entire playoff cushion with a 32nd-place finish last weekend. SVG hasn’t been to Gateway before in any series and is projected to finish 34th, which, at three points above the cutline, would complicate his postseason aspirations. But with long straightaways and tight corners leading to shifting and heavy braking, the Kiwi might have an advantage. To compare, AJ Allmendinger, another road-course phenom, has an average finish of 12th in two Gateway starts. Maybe SVG can follow on a similar trajectory and keep himself afloat heading to Bristol.

For some drivers, WWT Raceway provides a Gateway into the Round of 12, while others could remain arching the wrong way before the first elimination race of the playoffs.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: The 2021 series champion has never finished worse than 12th at Gateway and could use an old-school Larson performance. He’s nearly broken out of his summer rut with top 10s at Richmond and Daytona, but is winless since Kansas in May. A strong run would set him up well for Bristol, where he’s won the last two races.

DENNY HAMLIN: There are just four ovals on the current Cup schedule that Hamlin hasn’t won at, and Gateway is one of them. He finished second in two of the three St. Louis-area races with his feud with Ross Chastain in 2022 as the exception. A win on Sunday would make him the series leader with five 2025 triumphs.

TYLER REDDICK: A runner-up to Chase Briscoe at Darlington, Reddick heads to the Midwest on one of his best stretches of the year, finishing 12th or better in six of the last 10. He scored a top five in this race last year and led 41 laps last month at Richmond before a crash took him out of contention.

ALEX BOWMAN: The No. 48 driver finished 31st at Darlington after a 40-second pit stop, but in a race with massive postseason implications, expect Bowman to show well. He’s finished 11th or better in eight of the last 12 races with a second at Richmond. While he’s yet to finish better than 13th in three Gateway starts, some of the similar characteristics from Richmond could be used to his advantage.

KYLE BUSCH: The future Hall of Famer is the only non-Team Penske driver to win at Gateway — a 2023 triumph that is his most recent trip to Victory Lane. He’s led laps in all three races, turning 202 out front to pace the series, and also won a 2009 Xfinity Series race at the track. A win Sunday would break a career-long 84-race winless drought and provide some needed momentum into 2026 as Busch sits on the outside of the playoffs for the second year in a row.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR THE ENJOY ILLINOIS 300

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

*Denotes playoff driver

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