We’ve reached the final weekend of the 2025 NASCAR season.
Champions will be crowned in all three national series, bookended by Sunday’s Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
Going for the Cup Series title will be Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin, and Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron and Kyle Larson. All four have won races at the 1-mile Arizona oval, but Racing Insights has other ideas as to who will grab the checkered flag to end the season. Before the green flag waves Sunday, see who’s projected to win at Phoenix and how the Championship 4 drivers shake out.
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Briscoe and Hamlin are predicted to get outdueled by teammate Christopher Bell on Sunday. The No. 20 Toyota driver has won the last two spring races at Phoenix, but was stumped in his two Championship 4 appearances at the track with a 10th-place finish in 2022 and exiting during Stage 2 in 2023 after a brake failure.
The two championship-eligible JGR drivers are both projected to finish outside the top five. Hamlin, still seeking the Cup title that has eluded him for 20 seasons, was a part of the photo finish in the spring in a battle he came up short in against Bell. Hamlin is a two-time winner at Phoenix, but the numbers in the Next Gen car have been hit or miss with top 10s in just three of seven races since 2022. As for Briscoe, his first career Cup win came at Phoenix in the spring of 2022. However, he’s finished 29th or worse in the last two races at the track, including getting caught up in an early wreck in the spring.
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Byron is predicted to finish highest among the Championship 4 — and for good reason. He won the spring race in 2023 and has finished sixth or better in all but two of the Phoenix events since 2022. Sunday also marks the third consecutive Championship 4 appearance for the driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Chevrolet.
Larson’s lone win at Phoenix was his championship-crowning moment in 2021, the last race in the Gen 6 car. But his presence at the desert oval hasn’t faded in the Next Gen era. The No. 5 Chevrolet driver has tallied top 10s in five of the seven races in the Next Gen era.
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DRIVERS TO WATCH
RYAN BLANEY: It’s the first time in the Next Gen era that Team Penske will be knocked off the top of the Cup Series throne. Blaney (2023) and teammate Joey Logano (2022, 2024) took home the last three Bill France Cups, but it shouldn’t keep the team out of the mix Sunday. Blaney’s never won at Phoenix, but before an engine expiration in the spring, he had finished top five in the seven prior races.
JOEY LOGANO: The three-time series champion has plated some interesting results at Phoenix. He won the two championship races he was eligible for. The others? He’s finished outside the top 10, minus an eighth-place finish in the spring of 2022.
ROSS CHASTAIN: The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver spoiled the Championship 4 drivers by winning the season finale in 2023. He finished inside the top three in both 2022 events and owns the third-best average finish among the field in the Next Gen era (9.4).
CHRIS BUESCHER: Speaking of average finishes, Buescher is just behind Chastain during the same span at 9.6. The driver of the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford has finished ninth or better in the last four Phoenix races and is looking for some momentum to springboard into 2026.
DANIEL SUÁREZ: Sunday marks Suárez’s final race for Trackhouse Racing, as he’ll move to the No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet next season. Phoenix has been pretty good to Suárez. He’s finished 11th or better in three of the seven events in the Next Gen era.
RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR CUP SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP RACE:
Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.
*(P) denotes playoff driver
| FINISH | CAR NUMBER | DRIVER |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 2 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 3 | 24 | William Byron (P) |
| 4 | 5 | Kyle Larson (P) |
| 5 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 6 | 11 | Denny Hamlin (P) |
| 7 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 9 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 10 | 19 | Chase Briscoe (P) |
| 11 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 12 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 14 | 21 | Josh Berry |
| 15 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 16 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 17 | 60 | Ryan Preece |
| 18 | 71 | Michael McDowell |
| 19 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 20 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 21 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 22 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 23 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 24 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 25 | 4 | Noah Gragson |
| 26 | 42 | John H Nemechek |
| 27 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 28 | 34 | Todd Gilliland |
| 29 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 30 | 38 | Zane Smith |
| 31 | 7 | Justin Haley |
| 32 | 88 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 33 | 10 | Ty Dillon |
| 34 | 41 | Cole Custer |
| 35 | 35 | Riley Herbst |
| 36 | 51 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 44 | J.J. Yeley |
| 38 | 66 | Casey Mears |
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