Racing Insights: Hendrick expected to return to winning ways at Kansas

With the postseason nearing its halfway point, the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs head to the heartland at Kansas Speedway for the second time this season on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Although much more is on the line the second time around in the Sunflower State, the predicted outcome remains the same.

Racing Insights projects that Kyle Larson will claim his fourth career win at the 1.5-mile oval, backing up a dominant victory in the spring. The 2021 series champion led 221 laps in May, the most by a driver in a 400-mile race at a mile-and-a-half track in series history. His 760 laps out front at Kansas since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2021 are four times more than any other driver in that span. In 34 starts at 1.5-mile tracks with the organization, he’s won 10 times — an impressive 29%.

And at this juncture of the season, few need a victory more than the 33-year-old from Elk Grove, California, even though he sits plus-41 to the cutline. His May Kansas romp was his most recent at the Cup level, a triumph that bookended a white-hot spring and began an 18-race stretch (leading up to now) that’s included six finishes of 28th or worse with just three top fives. A recovery at one of NASCAR’s most exciting tracks would alleviate a lot of stress for the Charlotte Roval, even though he’s the defending winner.

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In totality, Racing Insights projects the entire HMS four-car stable to finish inside the top seven, with Alex Bowman in sixth as the best non-playoff competitor of the field. Chase Elliott and William Byron have constantly performed well at Kansas as both drivers have recorded the second-most top-10 finishes among all tracks (12 for Elliott; eight for Byron). The organization has placed cars inside the top two in six of the last eight Kansas races and all four drivers rank inside the top 10 in speed and long runs at intermediate tracks in 2025.

While Ryan Blaney doesn’t have much to worry about on Sunday with a Round of 12 victory already in his pocket, other Team Penske members alluded to concerns regarding Kansas. The organization hasn’t won in the Jayhawk State since 2020 with just four top fives in that time frame. Joey Logano enters the middle race of the round at plus-24 with teammate Austin Cindric the opposite, sitting 19 markers below the cutline. Both drivers are inside the top 10 in just two NASCAR Insights categories at comparable tracks, and for Cindric, an average finish of 23.6 at the track is his worst among all venues with seven or more starts.

But as evidenced in the past, the organization rises to the occasion when the stakes are the highest. In the Next Gen era, Penske drivers click off wins at a 26.5% rate compared to just 12.5% in the regular season. While Logano has the momentum, recording top fives in three consecutive races for the first time in six years, Kansas could make or break both drivers’ championship aspirations.

The same goes for 23XI Racing drivers Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace. Both drivers enter race No. 5 of the playoffs well below the cutline (minus-23 and minus-27, respectively), but are by no means in must-win positions … yet. History bodes well for them as the organization is responsible for three of the last seven race wins at Kansas (and 33% of the team’s wins since its inception in 2021). The spring Kansas race didn’t go well as Reddick finished 17th and Wallace crashed and finished 33rd, but the 23XI track record is hard to bet against. And don’t forget about the last time we went to a high-speed oval: Wallace won his first Brickyard 400.

If you want a sleeper organization to keep an eye on, don’t overlook Spire Motorsports. Saturday success hasn’t quite translated to race pace on Sunday, but the team is responsible for a pair of 1.5-mile track poles this season. Plus, Carson Hocevar has the fourth-best average finish over the four playoff races (10.5).

Kansas breeds chaos in the most exciting way possible: Multi-groove racing up all the way to the fence; historically close finishes; and maybe most importantly, major implications that could make or break a driver’s championship run with a road course waiting in the wings next weekend.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHRISTOPHER BELL: A win Sunday would tie Bell with teammate Denny Hamlin at five wins in 2025. The No. 20 driver has led in all seven Next Gen Kansas races, totaling 197, the most all-time without a win at the track. He finished second in the spring and no worse than eighth in his last four trips to the heartland. With a victory at Bristol two weeks ago, he’s riding obvious momentum, recording an average finish of 10.75 in four playoff events.

DENNY HAMLIN: With win No. 60 of his career in Hamlin’s mind, Kansas would be a pretty fitting place to do it. His four victories at the high-speed oval are the most all-time with seven top 10s in his last eight starts. Hamlin places no worse than ninth in all five NASCAR Insights categories at comparable tracks, making it more than realistic that the historic win could come Sunday.

CHASE BRISCOE: The only driver to record a top 10 in all four playoff races, Briscoe’s searching for his first win at a mile-and-a-half race track. He finished fourth in the spring Kansas race, his best result in nine trips to the Midwest track.

ROSS CHASTAIN: The Trackhouse Racing driver earned his first top 10 of the playoffs last weekend at New Hampshire and heads to Kansas as the defending fall race winner. His average finish at 1.5-mile tracks is 11.4, tied for fifth-best, and is one of seven drivers with multiple Next Gen wins at this type of track. At comparable tracks, he’s first in defense and second on restarts, according to NASCAR Insights.

RYAN PREECE: In his first season with RFK Racing, Preece has been one of the best at mile-and-a-half tracks. His four top 10s this season tie Larson for the most in Cup, with his 11.4 average finish tying Chastain for fifth-best. Preece has finished 13th or worse in the last seven races, but a turnaround could certainly be in store for the non-playoff driver on Sunday.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400 PRESENTED BY ESPN BET

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

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