Racing Insights: Bell projected to score another win, but who can challenge him at Loudon?

On Sunday, quaint Loudon, New Hampshire — population approximately 6,000 — takes front and center of the NASCAR world as the Cup Series makes its first playoff stop at the “Magic Mile” in eight years (2 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). A field of 16 NASCAR Cup Series title contenders has been trimmed down to 12, and with a new round of the playoffs on the horizon, anything is bound to happen in 301 laps.

That said, a familiar face is expected to return to Victory Lane and hoist the iconic lobster. Racing Insights projects that Christopher Bell, winner last week at Bristol Motor Speedway, will win for the fifth time in 2025 and defend his victory in the “Granite State.”

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Bell and Joe Gibbs Racing’s recent numbers at New Hampshire Motor Speedway are nothing short of incredible. The organization is three-for-three in the Next Gen car at the one-mile flat track, with Bell winning twice and Martin Truex Jr. scoring the victory in 2023 — his last Cup Series win. JGR has led 661 of 907 laps run in this current car, amounting to 73%, with the organization responsible for every stage win in that time frame. Dating back even further, at least one JGR Toyota has finished inside the top two in the last 13 Loudon events.

Add in the organization’s wicked hot start to the playoffs — a sweep of the first three races — it’s no doubt that JGR is the team to beat Sunday in Merrimack County. Racing Insights predicts Denny Hamlin, winner of the last flat track race at Gateway, to finish second, while Chase Briscoe, the Southern 500 winner, to finish eighth. Briscoe finished runner-up last year in a race decided by tire management in wet-weather conditions and has top 15s in the last three Loudon events, while Hamlin is pretty much a threat wherever the series goes. He’s a three-time Loudon winner, but it’s been since the 2017 summer race.

Don’t forget about 23XI Racing, either. Bubba Wallace, who earned the most stage points and third most points overall in the Round of 16, has a pair of top-10 finishes in three Next Gen races. Tyler Reddick has finished sixth in each of his last two trips to Loudon, boding well for the No. 45 driver as he begins the Round of 12 seeded last on the playoff grid.

Widening the scope even further, Toyota, who’s led 83% of the laps over the last three races at New Hampshire and 78% of the laps so far in the playoffs, has had four drivers in the top nine or better in every Loudon event since 2022.

Shifting gears, Team Penske is a team that continues to perform well at flat tracks, although Loudon is a minor exception. Ryan Blaney is projected to finish third on Sunday, but has finished outside the top 15 in all three Next Gen starts. However, he’s riding a streak of eight top 10s in his last nine races (the best in the series), so could it finally be Blaney’s time to conquer New England? Joey Logano, a two-time NHMS winner, finished outside the top 20 in two of his last three starts there (with a runner-up sandwiched in between).

With Loudon serving as the final flat-track race before the championship at Phoenix Raceway, it’s the final opportunity for the organization to tune up this package in hopes of bringing home a fourth consecutive title to Ford and Roger Penske.

Finally, that leads us to Chevrolet, and specifically, Hendrick Motorsports. Limping through the first round of the playoffs and losing one of its drivers to elimination (Alex Bowman), it’s felt like an eternity since HMS has tamed the “Magic Mile.” Kasey Kahne is responsible for the organization’s last win there in 2012, and since then, Hendrick has won 114 times at 28 different tracks, claimed four championships and finished in every position inside the top 15 at Loudon except first. Their four drivers — Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Bowman — had just one combined national series start at the time of Kahne’s victory.

As the playoffs march on, the margin of error gets thinner for those fighting for the Bill France Cup. The championship certainly can’t be won at New Hampshire, but a bad outing Sunday could put teams well behind the eight-ball toward advancing to the Round of 8.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Last week’s winner at Bristol has gone to Victory Lane in seven of his 11 national series races at Loudon, including twice in Cup and four times in four Xfinity Series starts. Excluding Josh Berry with just one Loudon start, Bell has the best average running position at 8.4. He heads to New England with 16 top 10s this season, tied for the best in the series.

KYLE LARSON: The 2021 series champion has finished runner-up at New Hampshire three times, but has not managed to score a victory. He’s led just 22 laps there over his career and six in four starts with Hendrick Motorsports, but with the team working to improve on flat tracks, maybe Sunday will be the day Larson gets to raise the lobster.

WILLIAM BYRON: The Regular Season Champion enters the Round of 12 on his second slide of the season, finishing outside the top 10 in each of the last five races. He’s never finished inside the top 10 at New Hampshire — the only track on the schedule that he hasn’t — and has just nine laps led. Although he’s 24 points above the cutline, a strong showing in the northeast would go a long way toward securing a spot in the semifinal round.

AUSTIN CINDRIC: It’s been a bit tougher for Cindric at Loudon in the past, finishing no better than 13th in three starts. But his win at Gateway last year shows that he can hang with the rest of the Team Penske crowd at flat tracks, and his fifth-place finish at Richmond Raceway last month could translate to a strong run at New Hampshire.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: A two-time Loudon winner, Keselowski has top 10s there in five of the last six races. He’s riding a stretch of nine top 10s in the last 17 races and nearly caught Christopher Bell in the final corner for the win last weekend at Bristol. If any non-playoff driver were to spoil the party, don’t be surprised if it’s the RFK Racing co-owner, as he searches for his first win in 52 races.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR MOBIL 1 301

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

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