Nearly two dozen college football teams remain perfect through Week 5 of the season, 13 of which are ranked in the latest AP Top 25. The likelihood of multiple power conference squads finishing with unblemished records ahead of College Football Playoff selections in a few months is minimal given the parity across the sport, so we’ve taken a shot at predicting every FBS squad’s first loss.
Conference play kicks into high gear for most this weekend, including several undefeated teams hoping to avoid road losses like Miami, Vanderbilt and Iowa State.
Consistency is vital during October when programs begin separating from others in the playoff race and conference discussions. Unbeaten seasons could be denied if execution lacks precision when teams enter the meat of their respective schedules.
College Football Playoff Rankings projections shake up as SEC floods race and Ole Miss rockets into top four
Brad Crawford
Projected first loss: at Arizona, Oct. 11
The Cougars played with fire at Colorado but luckily did not get burned. They’ll beat West Virginia this weekend to get through the first half of the slate unscathed before reality sets in and the losses begin. After traveling to Arizona, BYU plays Utah, Iowa State, Texas Tech and TCU over a five-week gauntlet. It’s going to be next to impossible getting through that group in conference play without a loss or two.
Projected first loss: at Duke, Oct. 18
The Yellow Jackets’ undefeated season almost went belly up at Wake Forest over the weekend, but Haynes King made enough plays in crunch time to reverse fortunes. They’re going to get every ACC team’s best shot the rest of the way, even if the schedule appears favorable from the outside looking in. The next ranked opponent for Georgia Tech comes during rivalry weekend against Georgia in Atlanta, but a loss will happen before that. I’m taking a stab at Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils getting the best of the Yellow Jackets a few weeks from now.
Projected first loss: vs. Texas Tech, Saturday
The Cougars have beaten up on a couple lackluster teams in the early going, but Willie Fritz deserves credit for having this team two wins away from bowl eligibility in Week 6. That’s notable. If Houston can avoid further injuries at key spots, an 8-4 finish could be in the cards. The first loss comes this weekend against our current Big 12 playoff favorite Texas Tech.
Projected first loss: at Oregon, Oct. 11
Go ahead and give Curt Cignetti national coach of the year honors if he’s able to take the Hoosiers to Autzen Stadium and win. That would essentially lock into Indiana into a playoff berth for the second straight year and make Cignetti one of the sport’s hottest commodities in coaching. Oregon’s playing at an elite level following its win at Penn State and should be able to handle Indiana at home.
Iowa State
Projected first loss: at TCU, Nov. 8
Saturday’s trip to Cincinnati is extremely dangerous for the Cyclones, who opened as a 1.5-point underdog despite being unbeaten and ranked No. 14. However, oddsmakers are giving Brendan Sorsby and the Bearcats too much credit for beating Kansas, 37-34. Defense was optional in that game and Iowa State will not have nearly as many coverage busts this weekend. Looking further down the schedule, the Cyclones play nationally ranked BYU, Arizona State and then TCU over a critical three-week stretch. They could lose either of those in Big 12 play.
Projected first loss: vs. Virginia, Saturday
Nearly buried by Pitt in the first half over the weekend, the Cardinals recovered to win their ACC opener, 34-27. Now, they’ll host a newly ranked Cavaliers squad coming off the program’s biggest win in years against Florida State. This could be a letdown weekend for Virginia, but right now, Chandler Morris and this Cavaliers offense is playing with a bit more precision.
Projected first loss: vs. Washington, Saturday
Not to discredit Mike Locksley’s surprising start with true freshman quarterback Malik Washington leading the charge, but the Terrapins will be humbled soon. That will come in one — or perhaps, both — of their next two Big Ten games against Washington and Nebraska. Maryland hasn’t been tested through the air defensively to the level of what Demond Williams Jr. and Dylan Raiola will bring to College Park.
Projected first loss: vs. Tulane, Nov. 7
If the Tigers survive South Florida at home in late October, they’ll host the Green Wave a couple weeks later with first place on the line in the American. Sutton Smith is galloping his way to conference player of the year accolades should his success on the ground continue. He’s averaging 7 yards per carry as a junior and the 5-foot-9 speedster has scored five touchdowns. Tulane-Memphis in the season’s final month likely determines who gets to the American title game.
Miami
Projected first loss: None
The first of three projected regular-season unbeatens, the Hurricanes march one step closer to their end goal with a victory this weekend at Florida State. A win over the Seminoles would mark Miami’s third this fall over ranked competition and puts the Hurricanes in the driver’s seat for one of the selection committee’s top seeds.
Projected first loss: vs. Alabama, Oct. 11
Not that we’re doubting Eli Drinkwitz’s ability to prepare a successful game plan coming out of an open date against the Crimson Tide, but the Tigers’ secondary has shown some holes this season despite an unbeaten start. And if there’s one team left on the schedule that could nuke Missouri at the back end, it’s Alabama and quarterback Ty Simpson. The Crimson Tide will have to stop the run, however. Alabama ranks 14th in the SEC in the category and Tigers tailback Ahmad Hardy leads the league with 730 yards and nine touchdowns.
Projected first loss: at North Texas, Nov. 1
The Midshipmen lead college football in rushing nearing the midseason point, but haven’t hit their stride just yet. There’s a strong chance Navy will be 7-0 going to North Texas in November with a showdown at Notre Dame looming after that. The matchup with the Mean Green is of far more importance, however. That’s the first of three games against American opponents down the stretch currently tied at the top of the standings.
North Texas
Projected first loss: vs. South Florida, Oct. 10
The first of several big games in the American comes next week when the Mean Green host USF on a special Friday night kickoff from Denton, Texas. The winner of that one takes frontrunner status alongside Memphis and Tulane in the conference. The Bulls will have the best player on the field with quarterback Byrum Brown, but pay attention to the Mean Green’s two-headed monster in the backfield — Caleb Hawkins and Makenzie McGill II.
Projected first loss: None
The Buckeyes have made both of their early-season tests look easy through five weeks, downing Texas in the opener before another dominant defensive showing over the weekend at Washington. Illinois, Penn State and Michigan are the three top 25 teams left on the slate for the Buckeyes and they’ll be at least a touchdown favorite in each of those matchups prior to Indianapolis.
Projected first loss: at Georgia, Oct. 18
As long as the Rebels split their remaining two contests against nationally-ranked teams in SEC play, Lane Kiffin will get to the playoff for the first time in his coaching career. Saturday’s win over LSU was a huge leap forward for the Rebels, who already have an impressive resume that includes a victory over American threat Tulane as well.
Projected first loss: vs. Texas, Oct. 11
This one hinges on the availability of John Mateer against the Longhorns. There’s reportedly an “outside chance” Mateer returns from wrist surgery in two weeks for Red River, which would significantly enhance Oklahoma’s shot to beat Texas. If he misses that one, Michael Hawkins Jr. will have his hands full against a loaded front seven in a rivalry game.
Oregon
Projected first loss: None
Unless Indiana catches the Ducks sleeping next week or Oregon stumbles in the regular-season finale at Washington, Dan Lanning’s team is going to reach the Big Ten Championship Game without a loss for the second straight campaign. Saturday night’s double-overtime victory at Penn State was predicted by most to be Oregon’s first setback of the season, but Dante Moore and Dillon Thieneman had other plans.
Projected first loss: at LSU, Oct. 25
Mike Elko’s team has three road games left against top-20 competition and it’s unlikely they’re going to get through that stretch unscathed. LSU could be in a backs-against-the-wall situation at Tiger Stadium in late October, needing a win to stay alive in the playoff conversation. Marcel Reed’s won difficult games on the road before — namely Notre Dame — but beating LSU could be a tall order.
Texas Tech
Projected first loss: at Arizona State, Oct. 18
Despite consecutive wins over Arizona State, the Red Raiders have lost both previous meetings against the Sun Devils in Tempe and this opponent still believes the road to a Big 12 title goes through them. Arizona State’s off to a 2-0 start in conference play thanks to narrow wins over Baylor and TCU. Up next for Kenny Dillingham’s team is a date with Utah before hosting the Red Raiders.
Projected first loss: at Wyoming, Saturday
We’re not calling Dan Mullen’s unbeaten start smoke and mirrors, but three of four victories have come by a single possession and two of those opponents — Sam Houston and UCLA — are winless this season. In the Mountain West opener for both teams, the Cowboys get the best of the Rebels in Laramie.
Vanderbilt
Projected first loss: at Alabama, Saturday
Bryant-Denny Stadium is where the Commodores’ hot streak to start the season finally ends. Alabama’s won 14 straight at home and remembers last season’s loss to Vanderbilt all too well. The back and forth between Alabama and Vanderbilt over the summer will spill onto the field this weekend during what should be one of the SEC’s most competitive matchups in Week 6.
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