Every year, NFL teams emerge seemingly out of nowhere to become legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Need proof? Entering the 2025 NFL season, the New England Patriots were viewed as a bottom-barrel team in the AFC. Instead, they managed to enjoy a 10-win turnaround in Mike Vrabel’s first season, posting a 14-3 record and making it all the way to Super Bowl 60 before losing to the Seattle Seahawks.
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The Seahawks were another team that didn’t enter the season among the Super Bowl favorites. But in his second season, Mike Macdonald molded his defense into that of a true contender while Sam Darnold delivered a quality first season in Seattle to help power them to a championship win.
Granted, the 2025 campaign was particularly unpredictable. Two of the biggest preseason Super Bowl favorites – the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs – didn’t even make the playoffs.
Still, the performances of the Patriots and Seahawks serve as a reminder to all NFL teams that a breakout can happen at any time.
Which teams could fit that mold in 2026? Here are four dark-horse teams who could emerge as playoff contenders this season if all goes well.
The Bengals went just 6-11 last season, but they could emerge as legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2026. It will largely depend on whether Joe Burrow can stay healthy.
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Over the last three seasons, Burrow has appeared in 35 of a possible 51 games for the Bengals. Cincinnati has a 19-16 record in the 35 contests the three-time Pro Bowler has started but sports a mark of just 5-11 when he isn’t on the field.
While having Burrow available will be critical for Cincinnati, improving its defense will be, too. The unit has ranked in the bottom 12 in defensive EPA in each of the last three seasons, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, and checked in at just 29th in the league last season.
The Bengals invested a lot to improve their defense in 2026. They traded for Dexter Lawrence and signed Jonathan Allen to improve their defensive tackle group. They also added Boye Mafe and Cashius Howell to play on the edge while inking local product Bryan Cook to provide a much-needed upgrade at safety.
Those upgrades are part of why Burrow believes the Bengals have “the most talented roster” they have had since he joined the team in 2020. That could be enough to help Cincinnati get back into the playoffs for the first time since the 2022 NFL season and become an under-the-radar Super Bowl contender.
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The Cowboys fit a profile similar to the Bengals’. Dallas sports an excellent offense headlined by Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams and one of the best receiver duos in the league, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
The issue for the Cowboys last season was that their defense struggled immensely under the leadership of Matt Eberflus. The unit ranked dead-last in defensive EPA per play, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, and badly missed Micah Parsons, who was traded on eve of the 2026 season.
With that in mind, Dallas was aggressive in upgrading its defense during the offseason. It drafted blue-chip safety prospect Caleb Downs in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft and added several potential veteran starters to its unit, including edge rusher Rashan Gary, linebacker Dee Winters and safety Jalen Thompson, among others.
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That infusion of talent may not turn the Cowboys’ defense into an elite unit, but it should get it closer to the average to above-average range. That could go a long way toward helping Dallas challenge for another NFC East title and become a potential contender.
The Vikings went 9-8 in 2025, but their performance was viewed as a disappointment. Minnesota had gone 14-3 the previous season under Sam Darnold but saw its offensive productivity and efficiency wane considerably in J.J. McCarthy’s first season as an NFL starter.
The Vikings decided to bring in proven competition for McCarthy in 2026 because of his struggles. The 23-year-old will be given a chance to compete with Kyler Murray for the starting job, and the winner of that battle could give Minnesota a chance to emerge as a strong bounce-back candidate in 2026.
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Minnesota still has the makings of a quality offense. It has an excellent receiver trio of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings while T.J. Hockenson remains an effective tight end. The team also sports a solid offensive line and a decent two-headed monster at running back in the form of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, so average to above-average quarterback play could help the Vikings climb their way back into the playoff race.
Questions exist about how the Vikings will be able to deal with some key departures on defense. Long-time safety Harrison Smith is gone while veteran defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave became cap casualties.
Nonetheless, Brian Flores remains one of the league’s best defensive coordinators. He should be able to turn Minnesota’s stop unit into an effective – and maybe even fearsome – one while Kevin O’Connell remains a bright, young offensive mind who should raise both the team’s floor and ceiling.
The Vikings may not get a lot of love entering the 2026 season because of their uncertainty at quarterback, but make no mistake. This is a team that could exceed expectations and challenge for a playoff spot if all goes well.
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If any team is going to come out of nowhere to earn a playoff spot, it will probably be in the NFC South. None of the teams in the division last season had a winning record, which allowed the 8-9 Carolina Panthers to emerge as the division winners.
The NFC South race remains wide open, but the Saints may be the most intriguing team in the race. Kellen Moore did yeoman’s work with an undermanned squad last season, and New Orleans actually posted a winning, 5-4 record with rookie Tyler Shough as its starter.
The Saints spent the offseason building around Shough, adding Travis Etienne, a versatile running back, and David Edwards, a strong left guard, in free agency to support him. They also spent a first-round pick on Jordyn Tyson to serve as a No. 2 receiver across from Chris Olave, which filled one of the team’s biggest holes from last season.
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All that should allow New Orleans to take another step forward on offense while the Saints’ defense, which ranked 11th in defensive EPA per play last season, should remain solid once again. And New Orleans’ schedule – which is, on paper, the second-easiest schedule league-wide in 2026 – should only aid in the team’s quest to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since Drew Brees’ final season in 2020.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Predicting 4 NFL teams that could emerge as dark horse contenders in 2026
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