PGA Championship Win Probability & Odds 2026: Scottie Scheffler With 16% Chance to Defend the Wanamaker Trophy

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Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite with a PGA Championship win probability in the 156-man field. Scheffler has odds of +500 to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy for the second straight year.

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The PGA Championship field is locked at 156, with Brandt Snedeker and Sudarshan Yellamaraju claiming the final two spots.

Here are the latest PGA Championship odds and win probabilities for the outright winner market at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — as well as important field notes.

📊 Live PGA Championship odds 2026

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.

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⭐ PGA Championship favorite

  Scottie Scheffler’s PGA Championship odds: 16%, +500

Scottie Scheffler skipped the Truist Championship Signature Event at Quail Hollow Club — the site of his PGA Championship victory last year. The week off didn’t impact his odds to successfully defend the Wanamaker Trophy, helped by a lackluster Sunday leaderboard topped by Kristoffer Reitan, Rickie Fowler, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Alex Fitzpatrick.

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Scheffler’s PGA Championship odds would’ve lengthened if one of the other favorites — Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, or Rory McIlroy — had won this week.

Scheffler leads all golfers with 2.97 true strokes gained per round this year, according to Data Golf. He also tops the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ranks second in SG: around-the-green.

PGA Championship betting tips

📈 Latest PGA Championship odds movement

All but two of the PGA Championship outright favorites saw their odds to win lengthen following the conclusion of the Truist Championship (and Myrtle Beach Classic). A largely unimpressive performance by the two PGA Championship contenders in their final tune-up helped to level the playing field at Kalshi.

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We’re seeing a more balanced oddsboard than we have in most recent majors and Signature Events. Only Scottie Scheffler has a double-digit win probability (17%). Rory McIlroy’s chances to win dropped from a high of 11% on Friday following a disappointing T19 finish at Quail Hollow.

Kristoffer Reitan’s PGA Championship odds sit at +10000 (1% win probability). Brandt Snedeker and Sudarshan Yellamaraju both have less than a 1% chance of winning the major.

Only Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau saw their PGA Championship win probability rise this weekend.

⚖️ How I’m trading the PGA Championship

Aronimink Golf Club, in Newtown Square, Pa., hasn’t hosted the PGA Championship since 1962. That lack of competitive course history for the entire 2026 PGA Championship field helps to lengthen the list of names to consider for the outright win this week. Keegan Bradley, who won the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink GC, has a 0.8% win probability this week.

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I consider the 2026 PGA Championship to be one of the more wide-open major championships in golf in recent years.

A par-70 course measuring nearly 7,400 yards, it will favor bombers. A sharp approach game is key at any “new” venue in golf. And a hot week with the putter can often fuel surprise runs to the top of the leaderboard in these situations.

I’ll be sprinkling more on the PGA Championship long shots this week. This is the major already most likely to produce long-shot winners, and hosting an event for the first time in a generation is the great equalizer.

For more, we’ve got you covered with a comprehensive PGA Championship cheat sheet.

COVERS INTEL:

Focus on driving distance, strokes gained: approach, and recent form with the putter in your PGA Championship picks to win this week.

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🆚 2026 PGA Championship field

The 2026 PGA Championship field was announced on Tuesday. The field closed at 156 golfers with Brandt Snedeker earning his way as champion of the Myrtle Beach Classic, while Canadian Sudarshan Yellamaraju claimed the final spot as the first alternate. Kristoffer Reitan — the winner of the Truist Championship — was already entered.

Neither Tiger Woods nor Phil Mickelson is in the field.

There’ll be no further field changes, barring a withdrawal.

📜 PGA Championship past winner odds

Six of the last eight winners closed with 20/1 odds or shorter, including Brooks Koepka three times (18/1, 10/1, and 20/1). With that said, we’ve also seen massive longshots win over the last 20 years, including Phil Mickelson in 2021 (200/1) and Keegan Bradley in 2011 (150/1).

Closing odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.

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❓ PGA Championship odds FAQs

Who has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship, with a 16% win probability from Kalshi.

How often are 2026 PGA Championship odds updated?

Books can adjust PGA Championship futures at any time, especially after PGA Tour events, major news, or heavy betting action. On this page, the odds shown reflect the timestamp listed in the odds table. If you’re comparing prices, refresh the page and check the book’s current listing.

Do favorites usually win the PGA Championship?

Not always. PGA Championship outrights are a deep market, and even elite players win at a low rate in a single-event sample. Historically, many winners come from the short-to-mid range rather than the single shortest favorite. Use favorites as a starting point, then compare price to course fit, current form, and alternative markets like Top 10/Top 20.

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What’s the best way to trade on the PGA Championship besides outrights?

If you don’t want the volatility of an outright, consider Top 5/Top 10/Top 20 finisher predictions or head-to-head matchups, which can better reflect form and course fit. Props can also offer angles without needing the winner.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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