The Lions have developed under coach Dan Campbell the well-earned reputation of going for it on fourth down. When it works, it works. When it doesn’t, it absolutely doesn’t.
The most notable failure came in the 2023 NFC Championship. Up 14 with 7:03 to play in the third quarter, the Lions faced fourth and two from the 49ers’ 28. A 46-yard field goal, if good, would have restored with 22 minutes to play the three-score lead the Lions held at halftime. Campbell and the Lions opted to go for it.
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Yes, receiver Josh Reynolds dropped the pass from quarterback Jared Goff. But that’s one of the risks taken when rolling the dice on fourth down, one of the basic realities of not having it together on a gotta-have-it play.
The moment woke up the 49ers, who scored a touchdown only five plays later. The Lions’ lead was cut to seven, and the rest is history.
Fast forward to 2025. Campbell continues to display “big onions” in those critical moments. And the opponents know it. They expect it. It impacts the approach to third down. It affects the reaction after a successful stop on third down. The defense assumes they’ll be staying on the field for another play.
Recently, the defenses have had the Lions’ number on fourth down. In the team’s most recent two losses, the Lions are 0-7 on such plays.
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On Thursday, the Lions trailed by 10 points — two scores — with 10:55 to play. They faced fourth and three from the Green Bay 21. They went for it. Receiver Jameson Williams dropped the pass from Goff. (Again, that’s one of the risks of going for it.)
The 39-yard field goal, if good, would have made it a one-score game. Failure to convert the fourth-down try kept it at a two-score game.
The broader point, as the title to this item indicates, is unpredictability. The Lions go for it so often that it’s no longer unpredictable.
For teams preparing to face the Lions, fourth-down defense is now part of the overall strategy, from planning to practice time to game-day mentality. Everyone knows the Lions go for it. Everyone is ready for it.
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These are variables that aren’t reflected in the analytics. And the Lions have lost the element of surprise that comes from the offense remaining on the field after a third-down play that falls short.
Unpredictability matters, in all aspects of football. If the opponent doesn’t know what’s coming next, there’s an advantage. The sweet spot is to force the defense to truly not know what will happen when fourth down arrives. It keeps them guessing. It keeps them on their heels.
That’s what happened when the Lions first embraced the go-for-it approach. It was an eye-opener. It no longer is.
Does that directly impact any of the fourth-down attempts? No. Does it indirectly impact all of them? How can it not?
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Unpredictability. The Lions have surrendered that quality. And in their most recent two losses, they’re 0-7 on those critical plays.
After Thursday’s loss, during which the Lions failed on both fourth-down tries, Campbell said the failures won’t necessarily have an effect on him, because he liked the plays that were called.
That’s fine. But the plays didn’t work. And maybe they didn’t work because defenses fully expect it, with a punt or a field goal now counting as the unexpected thing.
There’s no easy way for the Lions to restore unpredictability on fourth downs. And they’re now on the outside looking in, with five games to play. Which, if anything, will make Campbell more inclined to keep doing the thing that has worked so well in the past.
Even if it’s not working currently.
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