Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois 2 predictions, odds, picks: Is Dubois the man to finally beat Usyk?

For the first time in boxing’s four-belt era, the undisputed heavyweight championship will be contested on British soil as Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois unify all the belts in front of more than 90,000 fans at Wembley Stadium.

It’s a rematch of their 2023 contest that saw Usyk knock out Dubois in the ninth round, however, the drama began long before Dubois sat out the count from a heavy Usyk jab. In the fifth round, Dubois floored Usyk with a right hand that was controversially ruled a low blow, and Usyk was given a four-minute break to recover. The punch has divided opinion for almost two years, but on Saturday in London, the score will be settled once and for all.

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It’s the best fight that can be made right now in heavyweight boxing, with a brilliant storyline to go with it. So without further ado, let’s break it all down.

Undisputed heavyweight title: Oleksandr Usyk (-300) vs. Daniel Dubois (+250)

Oleksandr Usyk has already beaten Daniel Dubois once, so why would the rematch be any different? Because Dubois is no longer a boy. He’s a man.

Dubois’ transformation from the first Usyk fight to Saturday’s rematch is nothing short of a revelation. The Brit’s legitimacy as a contender was rightly called into question after he took a knee and sat out the count in both of his defeats against Joe Joyce and Usyk. Dubois had the skill and the physicality, but he lacked the heart and grit to become the face of boxing’s blue-ribbon division.

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Following his fight with Usyk, Dubois was matched with American Jarrell Miller. Dubois and Miller seemed even through five rounds, but the momentum was starting to shift in Miller’s direction. Things were getting tough for Dubois — and when things had gotten tough for him in the past, we’d seen what happened.

Promoter Frank Warren, who signed Dubois before his 2017 pro debut, saw it too. So he urged Dubois’ imposing father to give his son words of encouragement in the corner and persuade him to stick it out when things weren’t going his way. Dubois managed to weather Miller’s increased tempo and eventually stopped Miller in the final round.

Miller was vocal throughout the build-up. At times, he was bullying Dubois in the verbal back-and-forth. But when it came down to it, Dubois bullied the bully in the ring — and that was the beginning of Dubois’ transformation into a champion.

Dubois followed that up with back-to-back stoppage wins against Filip Hrgović and Anthony Joshua. Both times, he was the underdog, but on both occasions, he impressed with inside-the-distance victories.

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In the Hrgović fight, he weathered an early storm. Dubois got battered for much of the first three rounds but refused to give up and stopped the Croatian in the sixth round. The Joshua fight didn’t have the same early adversity — that fight was more of a coming-out party. Although he already held the IBF heavyweight title, 96,000 fans saw him crowned the king that night when he defeated Joshua, who was British boxing’s poster boy for the better part of a decade.

Yet while Dubois is on a sensational run, Usyk is on a different level from the rest of the division. The Ukrainian maestro, Uncrowned’s No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer, is a two-division undisputed world champion. He owns a pair of victories over both Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua and took over the heavyweight division in just six fights.

Usyk, at age 38, is showing no signs of slowing down, although the end is near for his storied career. Dubois and Joshua had success when attacking Usyk’s body, which is the consensus key to beating Usyk. Finding the target is easier said than done, though. Usyk has prolific footwork, defense and timing. Dubois will be deterred by the Ukrainian’s stinging left every time he tries to hold his feet and land downstairs.

Dubois has one of the best jabs in heavyweight boxing, and he must utilize it Saturday. Usyk will not be as easy of a target to hit as Joshua. Dubois will need to be content with working behind his jab and hitting arms and gloves for much of the first few rounds. It’s another mental battle for Dubois to overcome. Will he be disheartened by the frustration of not landing clean?

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There’s no doubt Dubois will benefit from the magnitude of the fight. He’s the first boxer in history to have two consecutive fights at Wembley Stadium. Even after being booed into the ring for his fight with Joshua, Dubois rose to the occasion and produced the greatest performance of his career when it mattered most.

I expect Dubois to give Usyk the toughest fight of his career — potentially even drop — only for Usyk to come through an arduous test and leave no doubt about his greatness.

Pick: Usyk

Heavyweight: Lawrence Okolie (-238) vs. Kevin Lerena (+190)

Former WBC bridgerweight champions Lawrence Okolie and Kevin Lerena clash in a heavyweight battle in the Usyk vs. Dubois co-feature.

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Okolie, who also formerly held the WBO cruiserweight title, moved up to heavyweight this past December, where he scored a first-round knockout of Hussein Muhamed.

Lerena put Dubois down three times in the opening round in December 2022 and had Justis Huni in deep trouble in their March 2024 heavyweight bout. The South African southpaw impressed in both defeats and will now look to leverage the experience he gained in those fights to give Okolie a real welcome to the heavyweight division.

Okolie put on a staggering 37 pounds for his heavyweight debut against Muhamed. He filled out into the division impressively, and many believe the Brit, who competed in the 2016 Rio Olympics, could have his best days ahead at heavyweight.

For Okolie, the key is to keep the contest at long range, as that’s where he can do his best work with his jab, and it will allow his 6-foot-5 frame to get leverage and power into his punches. Lerena has fast hands and explosive power, so he will be looking to close the gap and let his hands go at short range. Okolie has also struggled on the inside before and is infamous for holding excessively up close rather than letting the action flow.

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Okolie isn’t used to carrying a 260-pound frame, so it could serve Lerena well to take the Brit into the later rounds and test his engine with the added weight. Okolie will be dangerous early, but he has to be careful not to be reckless. When Dubois fought Lerena, he let his hands go early in the fight and caught a left hand in response that had his legs all over the place. Huni was also stunned in the opener by Lerena.

Lerena will be a live dog in this matchup. I expect Okolie to come through a few rocky moments and leave with his hands raised, but if there’s going to be an upset on Saturday’s undercard, this is certainly the fight for it.

Pick: Okolie

Light heavyweight: Daniel Lapin (-500) vs. Lewis Edmondson (+360)

Light heavyweight contender Daniel Lapin looks to score the biggest win of his career against fellow unbeaten British and Commonwealth champion Lewis Edmondson.

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Lapin is a member of Team Usyk, while Edmondson, like Dubois, is promoted by Frank Warren’s Queensberry, making this matchup a fitting precursor to the night’s main event.

The Ukrainian was last in action on December’s Usyk vs. Fury 2 undercard, where he won a shutout unanimous decision over France’s Dylan Colin. Edmondson pulled off an upset over Dan Azeez to claim the domestic titles this past October and defended the Commonwealth belt with a decision victory over Oluwatosin Kejawa this past March.

The styles don’t jell too well here. Lapin is a clever, tall southpaw with fleet feet and an educated jab. Edmondson relies on his reflexes and sharpness and prefers to do his best work at long range, which won’t bode too well against the 6-foot-6 Lapin.

This fight likely won’t steal the show. I can see Lapin’s physical advantages as well as his brilliant footwork guiding him to a comfortable points win.

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Pick: Lapin

Heavyweight: Vladyslav Sirenko (-700) vs. Solomon Dacres (+525)

Ukrainian heavyweight prospect Vladyslav Sirenko makes his debut on the big stage against former English champion Solomon Dacres.

Dacres lost his unbeaten record after he was brutally stopped by David Adeleye in December in London. Sirenko, now based in the U.S., has had his past three fights in Nashville against journeyman opposition.

Sirenko is a strong, aggressive pressure fighter who will no doubt take center ring and look to start fast. Dacres may still be fighting the demons from the Adeleye defeat, and so it is imperative he weathers the early storm and doesn’t let Sirenko dictate the tempo. Dacres is much the opposite of Sirenko. He prefers to work behind his jab and slow down the pace of the contest, outboxing his opponents in low-output rounds.

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Unfortunately for Dacres, I don’t envision his boxing skills and defense being sound enough for him to keep Sirenko off him for long. Even in his two fights with Michael Webster, Dacres proved far too easy to hit to compete with his style, even at the British championship level.

I expect Sirenko to break Dacres down and stop him inside the first half.

Pick: Sirenko

Undercard quick picks:

• Super lightweight: Lasha Guruli (-4000) def. James Francis (+1700)

• Super lightweight: Aadam Hamed (-4000) def. Ezequiel Gregores (+1600)