Ole Miss cleared a big hurdle by beating LSU — now it’s up to Lane Kiffin to avoid previous CFP pitfalls

For all of Ole Miss’ success under coach Lane Kiffin, Rebels fans have grown used to a familiar refrain: close, but no cigar. Time and again, they’ve been painfully close to breaking through to the College Football Playoff.

The Rebels arguably should have done it last year when they started 4-0 with five eventual top-100 NFL Draft picks, including record-setting quarterback Jaxson Dart. They brushed against the playoff in 2023, too, when they won 11 games but failed to beat Alabama and Georgia.

This year feels different. In spite of heavy personnel losses and minimal preseason hype, Ole Miss looked every bit like a contender in Week 5 by dominating No. 4 LSU in a statement win.

It was a victory that underscored the depth and development Kiffin has built in Oxford. Ole Miss controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, piling up 166 yards and scoring two of its three touchdowns on the ground. The Rebels iced the game with an 11-play, 5:04 drive — nearly all runs — capped by a 20-yard fourth-down strike from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss to tight end Dae’Quan Wright that allowed them to kneel out the clock.

Defensively, the Rebels harassed LSU’s patchwork offensive line, tallying one sack and eight quarterback hurries. Without top back Caden Durham, the Tigers mustered just 57 yards rushing on 22 carries, their lowest total of the season. The performance was particularly encouraging given Ole Miss had to replace three drafted defensive linemen: first-rounder Walter Nolen, Princely Umanmielen and JJ Pegues.

Kiffin also struck gold again in the transfer portal. Chambliss, a Division II national champion at Ferris State, didn’t even enter the season as the starter. He only took over when Austin Simmons went down with injury, but his blend of poise and playmaking has given Ole Miss a dynamic offensive threat with real Heisman Trophy upside. At this point, it’s hard to imagine him heading back to the bench.

Through five games, Ole Miss looks like a true playoff team. With an early top-five conference win already secured, the Rebels control their own destiny.

“After this win over LSU, I’m comfortable putting the Rebels in the playoff in Sharpie as long as they — at worst — split games against Oklahoma and Georgia,” CBS Sports College Football Playoff expert Brad Crawford said. “Losses to both could potentially leave it up to chance with the selection committee. This team looks earmarked for a 10-win floor, though.”

Still, the past serves as a cautionary tale. Last season, Ole Miss nearly locked up a playoff spot with a home win over No. 3 Georgia in early November, only to follow with a disastrous loss at unranked Florida that dropped them from playoff certainty to the Gator Bowl. A separate slip-up against Kentucky that season reinforced the thin margin for error.

Ole Miss 5-0 Starts in FBS Era (since 1978)

Looking ahead, the Rebels’ remaining schedule appears manageable. They face just two ranked teams over the final seven games, though both come on the road: No. 5 Georgia and No. 7 Oklahoma. A win in either would all but lock up a playoff bid in a 12-team field. The rest of the slate includes home games against preseason top-15 South Carolina and Florida, plus a rivalry trip to a resurgent Mississippi State to close the regular season.

For now, the vibes are immaculate in Oxford. Ole Miss has everything in front of it. Now it’s about finishing the job — and this Rebels team looks more capable of doing that than any before it under Kiffin.