The future of Texas A&M football looked brighter than ever in December of 2012 as Johnny Manziel cradled the Heisman Trophy in Manhattan before the Aggies capped an 11-2 season with a Cotton Bowl victory over Oklahoma. A&M was fresh off a wildly successful debut campaign for coach Kevin Sumlin and had sent a warning shot to the SEC during its first year in the league by winning at No. 1 Alabama.
Backed by big boosters, with a massive stadium renovation project on deck and a home in college football’s top conference, the Aggies looked poise to claim a spot in college football’s ruling class. In retrospect, however, that 2012 season is the 21st century high-water mark for a program that is always at least somewhat relevant but never dominant.
A&M’s efforts to spend its way to the top have failed, leading to a program reset under Mike Elko for the 2024 season that Aggies fans hope will begin paying dividends in 2025. The Aggies have languished behind their expectations, but they aren’t alone on college football’s misery meter.
Not far behind is a Nebraska program that fancied itself above winning 9 or 10 games on a regular basis under Bo Peeling from 2008-14. In the decade after his firing, the Cornhuskers won nine games just once and only last season snapped a streak of seven consecutive seasons without a bowl appearance.
Though the definition of “overrated” is inexact, we’ve set out to quantify which college football programs have underperformed the most over the past decade. Through coaching salaries, recruiting rankings, program investment, historical success and fan followings, it’s easy to identify the programs most serious about winning.
But the payoff — or lack thereof — is always found in quantifiable results on the field, especially when there’s a large sample size. The 10 most overrated teams of the past decade made a combined one College Football Playoff appearance from 2015-23, when the field was capped at four teams. They’ve struggled mightily against ranked opposition, and all made at least once coaching change over the decade.
Without further ado, here are college football’s 10 most overrated teams of the past decade, encompassing on-field results from 2015-24. Average recruiting ranking is from the 247Sports team rankings while average coach salaries came from USA TODAY’s coaches salary database and other reported figures.
Overrated programs of the past decade
1. Texas A&M
10-year record: 77-48
Average coach salary: $7.02 million
Average recruiting ranking: 11.2
Losing seasons: 1
Record vs. top 25: 17-26
CFP appearances: 0
Texas A&M spent as big as anyone to try and bring about a successful decade, only to be met with mediocrity at every turn. The beginning of this 10-year window coincided with the completion of a $484 million Kyle Field renovation project. Then came the arrival of Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher, who began his coaching tenure in 2018 as the nation’s fourth-highest paid coach. Fisher was rated as an “A” hire by CBS Sports and landed four consecutive top-10 recruiting classes, including the No. 1 overall haul in 2022. But it never translated to the field, as the Aggies failed to reach 10 wins at any point in his six-year tenure. Replacement Mike Elko got off to a 7-1 start last season before finishing 8-5. A&M’s only top-10 finish since Johnny Manziel’s magical run in 2012 came during the COVID-impacted 2020 season, when the Aggies went 9-1 against a schedule that featured just one ranked regular season foe.
2. Nebraska
10-year record: 50-69
Average coach salary: $4.42 million
Average recruiting ranking: 24.3
Losing seasons: 8
Record vs. top 25: 2-28
CFP appearances: 0
The hiring of Scott Frost at the end of the 2017 season drew an “A” grade from CBS Sports. The native son was coming off an undefeated season at UCF and looked like a slam dunk. But he limped to a 16-31 (10-26 Big Ten) record over five seasons, even while regularly signing top-25 classes. The Cornhuskers never beat a ranked team under Frost’s leadership — despite making plenty of appearances on FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff — while suffering an endless cascade of close losses. The jury is still out on whether successor Matt Rhule is going to make Nebraska a real player in the Big Ten. He also received an “A” grade but is just 12-13 through two seasons. There’s never been a season when true greatness was expected from the Cornhuskers in the past 10 years. But they’ve failed to even reach competence.
3. Auburn
10-year record: 70-57
Average coach salary: $5.73 million
Average recruiting ranking: 12.3
Losing seasons: 4
Record vs. top 25: 15-38
CFP appearances: 0
Auburn’s decade of gloom encompasses the final six years of Gus Malzahn’s tenure, the disastrous two-year reign of Bryan Harsin and a similarly uninspiring beginning to Hugh Freeze’s run. The program’s 15-38 mark vs. ranked foes is largely explained by a 2-8 record vs. arch rival Alabama and a 1-10 mark vs. historic rival Georgia (they met twice in 2017). Despite never finishing with a recruiting class outside the top-20 during the span, Auburn has finished in the top 10 of the CFP rankings just once in the past decade. Harsin’s hire was graded a B+, and landing Freeze earned the Tigers an “A.” But the Tigers have nonetheless continued falling short of the pace set by the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide and of their own standards.
4. Florida State
10-year record: 71-53
Average coach salary: $5.52 million
Average recruiting ranking: 13.6
Losing seasons: 5
Record vs. top 25: 10-25
CFP appearances: 0
Between the final three seasons of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure and the seven years since, Florida State certainly hasn’t been boring. But outside of 2023, it’s almost always been disappointing. Even that season was tainted by an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis that was used (unfairly) as justification for leaving the undefeated ACC champions out of the CFP. Five of FSU’s past seven campaigns have been of the losing variety, including last year’s dismal 2-10 mark. The Seminoles may view themselves as too good for the ACC, but that view is misaligned with their recent performance.
5. Florida
10-year record: 77-50
Average coach salary: $6.04 million
Average recruiting ranking: 13.4
Losing seasons: 4
Record vs. top 25: 13-31
CFP appearances: 0
A strong finish to a brutally challenging 2024 slate and the emergence of rising sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway provide hope that Florida is turning the page. But the program’s past 10 years featured the unfruitful tenure of Jim McElwain, the rise and fall of Dan Mullen and the unpleasantries of a slow start for Billy Napier. Florida’s three straight losing seasons from 2021-23 marked the first such run for the program since 1947-49. The past decade-plus has been humbling for a UF program that won seven SEC titles under Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer from 1993-08.
6. USC
10-year record: 77-47
Average coach salary: N/A*
Average recruiting ranking: 13.2
Losing seasons: 2
Record vs. top 25: 15-28
CFP appearances: 0
USC started 11-1 in 2022 before getting stuffed in a locker by Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game and missing out on the CFP. The Trojans are just 15-12 since that loss, and Lincoln Riley needs a big 2025 to reclaim the excitement which accompanied his arrival from Oklahoma. Prior to Riley, Clay Helton posted a 46-24 record — which doesn’t seem so bad in retrospect — but never made the CFP while competing in a mediocre Pac-12. Realignment might be good for USC’s pocketbook, but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that living up to the program’s historical standards will be a challenge in the Big Ten.
*full figures unavailable in USA TODAY database
7. North Carolina
10-year record: 68-60
Average coach salary: $3.42 million
Average recruiting ranking: 24.1
Losing seasons: 4
Record vs. top 25: 8-18
CFP appearances: 0
The Tar Heels started the 2015-24 span with their high-water mark of 11-3 under Larry Fedora. After Fedora went 5-18 in his final two seasons, UNC turned to Mack Brown. He produced three straight top-15 recruiting classes from 2020-22 and some elite quarterback play with Sam Howell and Drake Maye. But Carolina never reached 10 wins under Brown, and his teams always seemed to lose steam late. North Carolina has risen into the top 15 of the AP poll at some point in six of the past nine seasons but has finished ranked just once. Given the recruiting success, quarterback talent and quality of competition, it’s hard to blame North Carolina for wanting more. Is Bill Belichick the coach who can provide it?
With Bill Belichick hire, ex-North Carolina coach Mack Brown notices massive changes for Tar Heels football
Carter Bahns
8. Miami
10-year record: 77-49
Average coach salary: N/A*
Average recruiting ranking: 15.0
Losing seasons: 2
Record vs. top 25: 10-17
CFP appearances: 0
The program is trending up as Mario Cristobal enters Year 4 on the job on the heels of a 10-3 season led by departed star quarterback Cam Ward. But the past decade encompasses the ending of Al Golden’s tenure and the awkward three-year stints of Mark Richt and Manny Diaz. Cristobal also got off to a clumsy 12-13 start, which included the 2023 no-kneel debacle in a loss to Georgia Tech. Is the “U” finally back after all that? If so, it has certainly paid its dues over a decade that featured few highs, aside from a flash-in-the-pan 10-0 start in 2017 that fizzled with three straight losses.
*full figures unavailable in USA TODAY database
9. Texas
10-year record: 80-49
Average coach salary: $6.09 million
Average recruiting ranking: 8.4
Losing seasons: 3
Record vs. top 25: 25-27
CFP appearances: 2 (2023, 2024)
Take it easy, Longhorns fans: Texas is finally on the other side of it now with a 25-5 mark over the past two seasons leading into the dawn of Arch Manning’s starting tenure. But the 2015-24 run began with consecutive losing seasons under Charlie Strong before a lukewarm four-year tenure for Tom Herman. Texas also went just 4-7 against Oklahoma over the past decade. Steve Sarkisian now ranks as the No. 4 coach in the sport, but he was just 13-12 through two seasons before correcting the program’s course with consecutive CFP semifinal appearances.
10. Tennessee
10-year record: 75-50
Average coach salary: $5.04 million
Average recruiting ranking: 14.2
Losing seasons: 3
Record vs. top 25: 18-29
CFP appearances: 1 (2024)
Tennessee is on firm footing now under Josh Heupel, who is 37-15, coming off a CFP appearance and in possession of two wins over Alabama. But the Volunteers epitomized an underperforming program during the tail end of Butch Jones’ tenure and during Jeremy Pruitt’s three-year run. The Vols stacked consecutive top-10 classes in 2014 and 2015 and reached No. 9 during a 5-0 start to the 2016 season. But Jones finished just 8-10 from there before a disastrous coaching search that led to Pruitt. The ex-Alabama defensive coordinator posted a 16-19 record and fizzled out in a cloud of alleged NCAA violations. Heupel has done well to pull the program from that mess and salvage the decade.
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