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Can the defending champs knock off the current top squad?
By
William Schwartz
&
R.J. White
Nov 1, 2024 at 11:12 am ET
5 min read
| WHO | No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines |
| WHEN | Saturday, November 2, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| HOW | CBS |
Amidst what is shaping up to be a very tough season, the Michigan Wolverines (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) have found a much-needed bright spot — a third straight win over rivals Michigan State. The Wolverines had lost consecutive games for the first time since 2020 heading into the clash with the Spartans, but they walked away from the highly anticipated nighttime matchup with a tense 24-17 victory.
While Michigan’s national title defense has been all but completely derailed, the Wolverines are hosting a team that still harbors very real national title aspirations, the highest-ranked team in the country. No. 1 Oregon (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) is one of just three teams in the Big Ten without a loss on its record, putting it in a commanding spot to earn a top seed in the upcoming College Football Playoff given the SEC’s lack of even a single undefeated team at this stage.
Other than a shaky season opener against Idaho, that Ducks offense has scored at least 30 points each week, but a trip to the Big House is arguably the tallest task they’ve faced yet. Oregon is a big favorite at most major sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings, with the spread set at around a two-touchdown margin.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan spread | +14.5 (-110) | +14.5 (-108) | -14.5 (-110) |
| Oregon spread | -14.5 (-110) | -14.5 (-112) | +14.5 (-110) |
| Michigan moneyline | +490 | +455 | +460 |
| Oregon moneyline | -720 | -625 | -650 |
| Over | Over 45.5 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 45.5 (-112) | Under 45.5 (-112) | Under 45.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Michigan Wolverines
Ann Arbor is never an easy place to play, even under the best of conditions. Until a loss to Texas this season, Michigan had won 23 straight games at home, a streak dating back to the start of the 2021 season. Suffice it to say that the conditions under which Oregon will be making its visit to Michigan are not the best. The Ducks have to travel across three time zones to an environment in which essentially none of their players or coaches have played before to face one of the most talented defenses they’ve seen all year.
Michigan’s greatest strength is its run defense, which ranks 13th in success rate and is anchored by potential first-round pick defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. The duo has combined for 5.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss, creating quite the barrier to the inside run game. If the Wolverines can make early downs tough for the Ducks and keep them behind the sticks, they have a chance to stay in this one.
The offense also showed real signs of life with Warren back at the helm. After putting up 24 combined points in their previous two games, the Wolverines hung 24 on the Spartans last week. It was also the first game in over a month in which Michigan did not throw an interception, and Warren led the Wolverines on a pair of sustained touchdown-scoring drives that lasted 10 or more plays.
Why bet on the Oregon Ducks
The differences between Michigan and Oregon begin at the top. New Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore has had a tough time adjusting to the new job after spending the last few years as an offensive coordinator, while Oregon’s Dan Lanning has been much more consistent in his game management. On offense, his Ducks are putting up an impressive 6.9 yards per snap, while Michigan’s average is a pedestrian 5.0.
Not many programs can quickly reload after losing a first-round pick at the quarterback position – just look at Michigan – but Oregon has done exactly that. After transferring in from Oklahoma, Dillon Gabriel has produced at essentially the same level as Bo Nix did a year ago, with both passers sporting FBS-leading completion rates and yards per attempt numbers approaching the impressive 10.0 plateau.
Oregon’s defense isn’t its strength, but it shouldn’t have to strain too many muscles to hold down a Michigan offense that ranks in the bottom five in FBS by EPA per pass. The Wolverines’ rushing offense is better, but a one-dimensional ground game simply will not be enough to keep up with the Ducks, who should shred a defense that has allowed 21.5 points per game this year after averaging a remarkable 10.4 a season ago.
Best bet on Oregon vs. Michigan: Oregon -14.5 (-107, BetRivers)
With the spread set at just over two touchdowns at most college football sportsbooks, the gap between these teams is bigger than many analysts expected ahead of the season. However, it’s hard to imagine Michigan making things any closer than that number would imply they might.
The over/under is set in a great spot for the sportsbooks, as Oregon probably won’t break it on their own, but one or two unexpectedly competent Michigan drives could easily swing things toward the over. The Ducks should have no issue pulling away by the time this one wraps up, making a bet on the spread a potent one.
Prediction: Oregon 33, Michigan 10
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