A few days ago, we had Saturday circled as the ‘make or break’ day as far as finding out who the Penguins would likely be playing in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia was one point up on the NY Islanders and Saturday would see the Flyers play the Winnipeg Jets and NYI take on the Ottawa Senators. The results were conclusive — the Flyers romped to a 7-1 win, the Islanders got shutout and lost 3-0. Then, yesterday the Islanders made their elimination official by losing to Montreal.
As a result, via Hockeystats.com, the Battle of Pennsylvania is coming into further focus for the first round of the playoffs. Here are the odds of opponent for the Penguins.
The Flyers have two games left – one tonight against a Carolina team that has first place sewed up. The Hurricanes have won three straight, they haven’t employed a ‘pack it in and wait for the playoffs’ strategy by any means so it might be a tough game. Then Philadelphia plays tomorrow night against the Canadiens, who have incentive to win to strengthen their chances of winning the Atlantic Division. Should Philadelphia win either game or pickup overtime/shootout losses in both games, then their ticket to the playoffs is punched.
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The playoff race only gets interesting if the Flyers suffer a regulation loss tonight against the Hurricanes. That would throw at least some hope to Washington and Columbus — who play each other on Tuesday. Here’s the standings.
While Philadelphia gets their chance to win and get in, the situation would get a lot more interesting if the Flyers lose tonight. The Capitals (36 regulation wins) hold the first tiebreaker over the Flyers, so a Washington win tomorrow against CBJ would put pressure on the Flyers to have a must-win game on Tuesday – assuming a PHI regulation loss tonight.
Columbus, at this point, needs a lot of help. They would need the Flyers to lose both of their games in regulation AND do their part by defeating Washington in regulation tomorrow night. Then CBJ, by virtue of regulation wins, would surpass Philadelphia if both ended up with 94 points (and Washington sat tight at 93). The math and odds are relatively more favorable for the Caps, since they would pass either CBJ/PHI if all ended up with 94 points and would pass PHI if WSH/PHI ended with 95. The trick for the Caps will be relying on the Flyers to only get zero or one point in the standings over the Flyers’ next two games, along with of course needing to get a result against the Blue Jackets to bolster their case.
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The Red Wings latest end-of-season meltdown as them eliminated after being in first place in the conference as late as January, meaning Detroit now possesses the longest playoff drought in the NHL at 10 seasons, being as Buffalo has had a great season.
In the end, the drama didn’t go down to Game 82 for the Wild Cards – Ottawa won four-straight games last week and has a 5-1-1 April record to salvage their season and advance to the playoffs. Boston wasn’t hot in April (0-3-2 prior to yesterday’s win against Columbus) but managed to do enough in the second half of March (8-4-4 from March 14th on) to glide into a spot above the rest of the Metropolitan Division, courtesy of teams like the Blue Jackets and Islanders running out of steam in a major way over the last 10-12 games.
The Penguins sit in a fortunate spot, whether it’s the Flyers, Capitals or Blue Jackets the Pittsburgh first round opponent will likely have the fewest points of any Eastern playoff qualifier and certainly the lowest goal differential. The Flyers and Capitals have both been in good form winning seven of their last 10 games, though several of those opponents have had nothing to play for down the stretch.
The Penguins themselves are one win away on Tuesday in St. Louis from achieving their first 100-point season since 2021-22. That mark doesn’t look like any sort of priority for the team as they prepare for the start of the playoffs but would be a nice ending point for their season.
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For now, the focus is over to the Flyers tonight to see if they can take care of their business against Carolina or will open the door to make Tuesday a very interesting night when it comes to determining which team will be meeting the Pens in the playoffs.
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