NFL offseason power rankings: No. 4 Denver Broncos might not repeat a 14-3 record, but their foundation is strong

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Among the countless interesting tidbits in an ESPN story shadowing Sean Payton for a week before last season’s AFC Championship game was one of Payton’s “playoff myths” he shared with the team.

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The myth he showed his players was, “We’ll Be Back Next Year.” Payton followed that by telling the team, “Nothing is promised.”

The Denver Broncos had a remarkable season with a weird ending. Not long after the Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills in one of the most thrilling games of last postseason, Payton returned to the podium and shared with the media that Bo Nix had broken his ankle and was out for the rest of the season, including the AFC championship game.

The Broncos battled in that AFC title game against the Patriots with Jarrett Stidham starting at quarterback, but one massive turnover by Stidham and a questionable fourth-down gamble in the first half, along with a blinding snowstorm in the second half, might have cost them a win and a chance to play in the Super Bowl. As Payton told the team before the game, being in that position might not happen again.

“Man, we missed Bo in that game,” Payton said in the story, written by Seth Wickersham.

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The bad news for the Broncos is it’s almost impossible to improve upon a 14-3 record, especially considering how many comeback wins Denver had. The good news is Denver’s infrastructure is solid.

The Broncos have a coach in Payton who has a good shot at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. They finally found an answer to their longtime quarterback problem in Nix. The Broncos have perhaps the best offensive line in the NFL as well as a top five defense.

And now Denver brings on a brand new playmaker in Jaylen Waddle, acquired in a trade with the Dolphins. It would be nice if the Broncos had a star running back or were better at linebacker, but nobody’s perfect and Denver is situated for success as well as anyone aside from a few teams.

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The regression case can’t be ignored though. Like the Patriots, who beat Denver in that snowstorm to advance to the Super Bowl, there’s plenty of skepticism about the Broncos coming close to repeating their 2025 season. It starts with great fortune in close games last season. The Broncos were 2-2 after four weeks, then had a 10-game winning streak. Nine of those wins were by eight or fewer points. After a loss to the Jaguars to break the streak, the Broncos added a seven-point win over Kansas City without Patrick Mahomes.

That streak of close wins is unsustainable, unless you’re the 2023-24 Chiefs. It included one of the wildest comebacks ever, as the Broncos trailed 19-0 at home to the lowly Giants but scored 33 points in the fourth quarter to win 33-32. Denver trailed in 12 of its 14 regular-season wins, becoming the first team in NFL history with 12 comeback wins, according to Opta Stats. Then they added another comeback win in the playoffs against the Bills.

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The Broncos profiled as closer to an 11-win team based on point differential (+90) and DVOA. There’s nothing wrong with an 11-win season, but it’s a big step back from 14.

Denver was average in most offensive metrics, and maybe Waddle doesn’t change all of that. The defense was good but that fluctuates more than offensive success from season to season. While the Patriots got a lot of scorn for facing an easy schedule, the Broncos played the fourth-easiest schedule last season, according to DVOA.

There are reasons to believe in the staying power of the Broncos while also acknowledging that they’re unlikely to have as smooth of a runout as last season. The Broncos hope to be right back in the AFC championship game and finish the job to make a Super Bowl. But nothing is promised.

Offseason grade

The Broncos were surprisingly quiet in the early part of free agency. Then came the big move, as Denver traded for Jaylen Waddle and a fourth-round pick, sending the Dolphins a first-, third- and fourth-round pick in return. That’s a lot to give up, but it was also a weak draft class. While the Broncos retained many of their own free agents, like running back J.K. Dobbins, linebacker Alex Singleton and tight end Adam Trautman, the only outside free agent they added was safety Tycen Anderson on a one-year, $1.5 million deal. The plan was pretty clear: Run it back with last season’s team, with one key addition in Waddle.

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The Broncos did lose defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers, who signed a massive three-year, $63 million deal with the Titans, and linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who didn’t fit well in his first and only Broncos season. The draft was light due to Denver sending three picks to the Dolphins. Despite making only a few additions, Waddle was such a perfect fit for what the Broncos needed that it was still a successful offseason.

Grade: B

Quarterback report

Bo Nix had 279 yards and three touchdowns with several key plays in an overtime win over the Bills in the divisional round, which has to be a reason why everyone has decided to ignore that Nix was only average at best during the regular season. Nix’s 87.8 passer rating was 26th among qualified quarterbacks, behind players like Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa. Most of Nix’s numbers were slightly down from his rookie season. Offensively, the Broncos ranked 15th in DVOA, 15th in EPA (expected points added) per play and 19th in success rate. Nix individually was 18th in adjusted EPA per play among quarterbacks. He wasn’t bad, but he also isn’t suddenly better than Lamar Jackson.

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Assuming Nix has recovered from ankle surgery, he could make positive strides in his third season. Payton is still around, although Davis Webb takes over as the play-calling offensive coordinator after he was a hot candidate in the coaching cycle this offseason. Getting Jaylen Waddle is a boost for the passing game. And Nix’s rookie season set a good foundation even if there was a bit of a sophomore slump. Nix should be fine, even if he got a little too much credit this offseason.

Odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “With a healthy Bo Nix, we could be discussing the Broncos as defending Super Bowl champions. Even with Nix, though, Denver won a lot of games (14-3, AFC No. 1 seed) but wasn’t good to bettors, posting a 7-9-1 ATS record in the regular season, including a 4-9 ATS mark as a favorite. With that said, the Broncos are loaded this season, as they return the vast majority of their roster and they added Jaylen Waddle via trade to provide another offensive weapon for Nix. The No. 5 defense by DVOA should be a terrific unit as well. Grab Denver to make the postseason at -140 odds.”

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Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “RJ Harvey did a lot of fun things as a rookie, with 12 touchdowns pushing him into RB2 range. But the regular spikes belied a mediocre 3.7 YPC, and the Broncos still have a crowded backfield, retaining J.K. Dobbins and drafting Jonah Coleman. Harvey was underwhelming after Dobbins got hurt last year, a slump I can’t overlook. He’s not one of my proactive targets in the middle rounds.”

Stat to remember

When Sean Payton was hired as the Broncos’ new head coach in 2023, he hired Vance Joseph as his defensive coordinator. It was weird because Joseph had been Denver’s head coach five years before, but it worked.

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After a rough first season, Joseph’s last two defenses have been fantastic, finishing fourth and fifth in DVOA. Last season the Broncos were second in yards allowed, third in points allowed and first in success rate allowed. They were first in adjusted yards per attempt allowed and third in yards per rushing attempt allowed, the sign of a balanced defense. There are stars on the defense, led by cornerback and 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II and pass rusher Nik Bonitto, who had 14 sacks last season.

It’s hard to rank inside the NFL’s top five on defense for multiple seasons, but 10 starters return (though edge rusher Jonathon Cooper’s status is uncertain after he was arrested twice in June and charged with felony assault). Joseph, who couldn’t land a head coaching job despite some interviews, also returns. That continuity should lead to another strong season.

Burning question: How much different will the Broncos’ offense be with Davis Webb calling plays and Jaylen Waddle on board?

The 2026 Broncos will look surprisingly similar to the 2025 Broncos. There wasn’t much turnover. But there are two huge changes to the offense.

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Davis Webb, who was promoted to offensive coordinator this offseason after Joe Lombardi was fired, takes over play-calling duties from Sean Payton. It’s the first time since Payton became a head coach in 2006 that one of his offensive coordinators will be a full-time play-caller, aside from the season he missed due to a Bountygate suspension. Payton gushed about Webb’s ability — Webb got multiple head-coaching interviews despite being 31 years old and having no coordinator experience — but it’s not like Payton won’t have influence on the offense.

“We think very similarly. I know how he wants the game to be played,” Webb said, via the team’s site. “It’s the same offense for the most part, just little tweaks here and there. This is a Sean Payton-coached football team, a Sean Payton offensive philosophy.”

Webb will be figuring out how to get Waddle the ball as often as possible. Waddle, who is 28 years old, set a then-rookie record with 104 catches in 2021 and had 1,356 yards a year later. Injuries and problems within the Dolphins’ offense capped his numbers the past couple seasons, but his versatility will fit well with Courtland Sutton, Denver’s big X receiver. Waddle should be a huge difference maker. That would make Webb’s job easier.

Best-case scenario

Imagine how dominant the Broncos would have been last season if Bo Nix improved from his rookie season instead of taking a bit of a step back. They were the top team in the AFC last regular season with Nix being a middle-of-the-road quarterback. He’s not the first QB to dip in his second season, and he could end up being very good in his third season, especially if Jaylen Waddle hits big.

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It also says something about new offensive coordinator Davis Webb that Sean Payton was willing to give him play-calling duties in what looked like an attempt to keep Webb in Denver while other teams were trying to poach him. Maybe some new ideas will energize the Broncos’ offense and Nix.

The defense should be good again and we can count on the Broncos to be very well coached. The Broncos had a fortunate record in close games last season, but a great coach and strong defense should provide an edge in those games. Perhaps it wasn’t that fluky. It will be very hard to repeat 14-3. The Broncos would prefer a couple more wins in the playoffs instead.

Nightmare scenario

If the Broncos played to their point differential, DVOA or had a record just above .500 in close games, they would have been 11-6 last season. That’s not a bad baseline, but they probably wouldn’t be in the top five of this countdown either. The Broncos shouldn’t fall too far, even if they can’t repeat last season. It’s also possible that, in a tough division and a deep AFC as a whole, the Broncos could slip behind the Chiefs and Chargers or both in the AFC West and get squeezed out in a competitive wild-card race.

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That might happen if Bo Nix doesn’t improve from last season — which would put the Broncos in a sticky spot when it comes to Nix’s second contract negotiation — and the defense can’t repeat a top-five finish. Going from a heartbreaking loss one step from the Super Bowl to being out of the playoffs would be crushing to a Broncos franchise that thought it was out of its post-Peyton Manning malaise.

The crystal ball says

In a weird way, the Broncos would probably be a trendier team if they went 11-6 last season instead of 14-3. Because regression is now a buzzword, everyone is in a race to condemn the Broncos. Denver’s record certainly will take a step back, but to what? Most people will go overboard downgrading the Broncos, and I won’t be doing that. There’s a lot to like about Denver. If it weren’t for the regression police, we’d be talking about a team with an elite defense, top offensive line and a third-year quarterback who could play much better than he did last season with an exciting new offensive playmaker. And they’re all led by a head coach who is likely to land in the Hall of Fame. It doesn’t look like a team that will be hovering around .500.

This is a talented team on both sides of the ball, and Bo Nix’s playoff performance should be an indicator that he’ll have a good third season. There is a chance the Broncos aren’t the AFC West winner because they play in perhaps the NFL’s toughest division, but this should be a playoff team. They won’t win 14 games again, but don’t make the mistake of overlooking them.