Other NFL team previews: 32. Titans | 31. Saints
The Cleveland Browns were the last to know that Deshaun Watson was one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks.
Even as the rest of the world could easily see Watson was a shell of the player he was with the Houston Texans, the Browns continued to act like everything was fine. They refused to even consider benching him and Kevin Stefanski would get defensive at the suggestion that he sit down a quarterback who posted an 80.7 passer rating in three Browns seasons and somehow looked even worse than that.
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It had to be cathartic for Browns fans to hear owner Jimmy Haslam say the team “took a big swing and miss with Deshaun.” Everyone else knew that long ago. The Browns were in deep denial.
An Achilles injury for Watson, and then a second tear of the tendon a couple months later, might have forced the Browns to open their eyes. Watson will end up being perhaps the worst trade and also the worst contract in NFL history. Swing and a miss doesn’t really cover it.
But the only way out of the mess was to admit there was a mess. As much as it stings to start another rebuild — the Browns’ “trust the process” era produced a 4-44 record from 2015-17 and all that trouble didn’t result in a single division title afterward — at least there’s some clarity now. It’s better than another season of Stefanski acting like everyone was crazy for suggesting Watson wasn’t good.
A key decision at the top of the draft was the unofficial start of reshaping the roster. The Browns passed on the chance to draft Travis Hunter second overall to get a huge haul from the Jacksonville Jaguars in a trade. It included the fifth overall pick and the Jags’ first-round pick next year. It had to be hard to give up Hunter, but it was probably the right move.
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The big part of the rebuild will be figuring out quarterback, and the Browns are taking a shotgun approach to it this year. They have four relatively low-cost quarterbacks and are praying one is the answer. Joe Flacco is the 40-year-old stopgap, Kenny Pickett is the reclamation project, Dillon Gabriel was the rookie the Browns drafted proactively in the third round, and Shedeur Sanders is the fifth-round pick everyone wants to talk about. If Sanders climbs up from fourth on the depth chart and starts any games this season, the Browns suddenly will become one of the most watched teams in the league.
Maybe one of those quarterbacks will emerge as a franchise player, but it’s probably more likely the Browns’ answer at quarterback will be playing on Saturdays this fall. The odds of a player in his 40s, a failed first-round pick, an undersized third-round pick or any fifth-round pick becoming a Pro Bowl QB are very low, even if you bundle all four together. It’s disheartening, especially for someone like Myles Garrett who is heading down a very Joe Thomas-like path in his career. But there’s not much the Browns can do but admit the reality of their situation.
The process starts over. Hopefully for Cleveland it’s not as long and difficult as the last one, and with some positive results this time.
Offseason grade
Given where the Browns find themselves, they had a solid offseason. They didn’t make many big moves in free agency. Defensive tackle Maliek Collins (two years, $20 million) was the only player to get more than $4.76 million per year. Instead the Browns focused on depth pieces like outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, offensive tackle Cornelius Lucas and guard Teven Jenkins. The Browns’ draft was good, though they could end up being remembered as the team that traded the Travis Hunter pick. Moving down produced a haul of extra draft capital. Defensive tackle Mason Graham was a good pick at No. 5, second-round linebacker Carson Schwesinger is an exciting replacement for injured Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (he’s out for the season with a neck injury), running backs Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson could be a fun 1-2 punch (though that means Nick Chubb is likely moving on) and the quarterback duo of Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders will seem smart if one of them works out.
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Grade: B
Quarterback report
Deshaun Watson is technically still on the roster, but it would be a massive shock if he played another snap for the Browns. It seems like a long shot he’ll ever play in the NFL again. Guessing who will start the most games for the Browns this season is fun. Joe Flacco seemed like a weird shot at recapturing a fluky hot streak two years ago. Flacco was so poor with the Colts last season, they had to quickly reverse a plan to let Anthony Richardson sit on the bench and learn. Kenny Pickett is trying to be the next Geno Smith/Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold reclamation, and he’s just 26 years old. The team obviously liked Dillon Gabriel to draft him 94th overall, and are betting his fantastic college production will outweigh physical disadvantages (5-foot-11, 205 pounds at the NFL scouting combine). Shedeur Sanders is the most curious case. Does he really have the upside of a first-round pick, which many draft analysts thought he’d be? Or was the NFL telling everyone when he slid to the fifth round that he’s just not good enough to be an NFL starter? The list of successful quarterbacks from the fifth round and beyond isn’t empty, but it’s very, very short. How the competition shakes out will be interesting. The Browns will have to figure out if it will be worth the unusual move of keeping all four quarterbacks on the roster. If they do keep all four, it’s reasonable to believe all four might get at least one start this season. That’s not good.
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “The Browns are one of three teams favored in only one game this season and have the NFL’s lowest win total of just 4.5 at BetMGM, the team’s lowest win total since 2017 (when the Browns didn’t win a game). This season will likely be measured by the success of how Cleveland’s QB situation plays out, rather than by wins. Hopefully, the Browns can at least improve on their 4-13 record against the spread last season.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “The early market doesn’t believe Jerry Jeudy’s breakout year — although he was the WR15 in half-point PPR scoring last season, he’s being drafted at the WR33 slot this spring. Alas, I think the market is probably right. Cleveland’s quarterback room might be even worse than it was last year, and the Browns likely recognize their path to competing is to ugly things up by relying on defense and the running game. That sort of approach puts a capped ceiling on the passing game. Jeudy also has a modest touchdown rate as a pro — receivers own most of that metric once you get deep into a career. Even at a bargain cost, Jeudy is not a proactive target for me in 2025.”
Stat to remember
Here were the Browns’ NFL ranks last season in expected points added (EPA) per play and success rate, first as an offense and then per dropback in the passing game: 32nd, 32nd, 32nd, 32nd. On top of that, Cleveland was 27th in EPA and 30th in success rate in the run game. It was an unwatchable offense. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired, replaced by Tommy Rees. Cleveland’s passer rating as a team was 71.4, which seems like a typo. It was 73.7 the year before. It’s not all Deshaun Watson’s fault, but plenty of it was. It’s not like the Browns are completely devoid of pass catchers. Jerry Jeudy made a Pro Bowl after the Browns acquired him in a trade with the Broncos, David Njoku is a good tight end and Cedric Tillman was coming alive before a concussion ended his second NFL season early. The Browns need competent quarterback play. That’s nothing new in Cleveland.
Burning question
What is the true level of the Browns defense?
The hope for the Browns last season was that a fantastic defense would get some help from the offense and the team would take a step forward from 11 wins the season before. We know the offense failed miserably, and in hindsight that shouldn’t have been a surprise. But the defense falling apart was shocking.
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One of the problems was a secondary that was filled with big names made almost no plays. Cleveland had just four interceptions, which was the lowest total in the NFL. That’s hard to believe from a secondary with Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, Martin Emerson Jr. and Grant Delpit. Those are all Day 1 or Day 2 draft picks with good reputations and they did almost nothing in 2024. The Browns got solid play from the front seven last season, and the secondary fell hard. That’s a big reason the team had a -22 turnover margin. The second-worst team in the NFL last season was at -16. Defensive success is historically isn’t guaranteed to carry over from year to year, but the Browns going from second in DVOA in 2023 to 25th last season despite returning most of the lineup is hard to explain. Getting no support at all from the offense couldn’t have helped. The Browns defense seems much more likely to be in the top 10 of the NFL this season than the bottom 10.
Myles Garrett should be a top contender for NFL Defensive Player of the Year again this season. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
(Jason Miller via Getty Images)
Best case scenario
Two seasons ago the Browns were 11-6 and in the playoffs. Many of the same reasons for optimism coming into last season still exist. Plenty of the defense that led the NFL in yards allowed in 2023 remains, including all-world defensive end Myles Garrett and coordinator Jim Schwartz. Defensive success can fluctuate from year to year; that cost the Browns last season but it also means the defense could bounce right back. The quarterback play is unlikely to be good this season but the Browns have two exciting rookie running backs and could be a team that wins by playing defense and running the ball. The Browns were terrible as a whole at quarterback two seasons ago but won a lot of games. If the defense is at a top-five level again, if Kevin Stefanski returning to calling plays boosts the offense to a passable level, and if there’s better injury luck after they piled up last season, maybe Cleveland will be a surprise playoff contender.
Nightmare scenario
When Myles Garrett requested a trade, the underlying message was that he didn’t think he could win a Super Bowl in Cleveland. That all got smoothed over with a four-year, $160 million extension, but it’s not like Garrett’s team-level concerns were fixed. The Browns are a bad franchise. We have more than 25 years of evidence to prove it. It seems like a team that could start four different quarterbacks this season and none of them are a good bet to be a long-term answer. It’s a roster that’s among the oldest in the NFL, because Cleveland expected its process to be in full bloom by now. The Deshaun Watson fiasco derailed everything. The only good news that would come from the Browns having an even worse season in 2025 would be that they’re in position to draft a top quarterback prospect. But then ask yourself: Do you trust the Browns to not screw that up?
The crystal ball says
The Browns should be more competitive this season, especially on defense. Their outright collapse on that side of the ball made little sense. And if Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson both hit at running back, the offense will be better. Which isn’t saying that much; it’s hard to be worse than the 2024 Browns were on offense. So while the Browns shouldn’t be ranked higher than 30th on this list, there is potential to win more games than expected. Just don’t expect another playoff season, or anything close to it. The only time we’re going to be truly interested in the Browns this season will come when and if Shedeur Sanders plays.
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