Other NFL team previews: 32. Titans | 31. Saints | 30. Browns | 29. Panthers | 28. Jets | 27. Giants | 26. Raiders | 25. Patriots | 24. Colts | 23. Dolphins | 22. Jaguars
The Atlanta Falcons made the most polarizing NFL Draft pick in several years when they took Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall last year. Given how interest in the draft has skyrocketed, it might be the most debated pick ever.
Advertisement
Except, there wasn’t much debate. Practically everyone hated it. Here were some of the reviews of the Penix pick from major media outlets on draft night:
“This is a failure on every single level.”
“I just wonder why the Falcons would pick a QB at 8 knowing that Kirk Cousins is their guy for the next two to three years.”
“Like the player, but don’t like the pick.”
“An older quarterback with medical issues as a developmental pick is a bit of a head-scratcher.”
“This feels [like] a reach.”
“What is going on in Atlanta? This pick makes absolutely no sense.”
Advertisement
On The Falcoholic, more than 1,500 fans voted on the Penix pick and 47% gave it an F. To say the pick was panned is an understatement; it was hard to find anyone who gave it a benefit of the doubt.
Well, about that. A year later, the so-called madness looks prescient. Penix took over for the ineffective Cousins late in the season, had some promising moments and the Falcons declared he would be their starter in 2025. Cousins is still on the roster, and that seems odd until you recognize that the Falcons have gone about fixing their quarterback conundrum in an unconventional way. That unorthodox approach is why they were endlessly mocked for the Penix pick (spoiler alert: most NFL analysts mock anything that doesn’t entirely align with how all NFL teams have operated for decades). Look at it this way: The Falcons paid $160 million and also used the eighth pick of the draft on quarterback, and ended up with a player who they truly believe can be a franchise quarterback for many years. Plenty of teams that have struggled forever to figure out quarterback would happily sign up for that scenario. NFL teams only have to get the right answer on the test when it comes to quarterback; they don’t need to show their work.
Now comes the part of finding out if Penix can be a top-end starting quarterback. There are plenty of reasons to be excited, but that’s based off just 105 passes. Penix completed only 58.1% of his attempts, had three touchdowns and three interceptions with a 78.9 passer rating. All of those numbers will have to improve significantly for Penix to pay off on his promise. But Penix had some exciting flashes over his three starts, and that was enough for the Falcons to turn the page to a new era.
“Realistically, the light at the end of the tunnel for us, despite how bad and poor we played on defense or anywhere else, is the quarterback,” coach Raheem Morris said after a season-ending loss, via the team’s site. “The organization has a quarterback that is certainly bright, that is certainly our future, that certainly can go out and make any single play and play in any single game that you can play in. Those are the things we’ll talk about I’m sure … moving forward. We’ll figure out ways to fix what we need to fix. We’ll figure out ways to fix the things we got to get done. But Michael Penix is certainly outstanding. He’s certainly one of the guys that’s going to play in this league and absolutely dominate for as long as we allow him.”
Advertisement
The Falcons are hopeful that Penix is fantastic right away and helps elevate the rest of the roster. Penix, Bijan Robinson and Drake London could form the foundation of an exciting offense. The defense is a work in progress, but doubling up on pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. in the first round of the NFL Draft might fix Atlanta’s massive and longstanding weakness on the edge. Hiring Jeff Ulbrich, formerly of the New York Jets, to be their new defensive coordinator could help too. The Falcons were 8-9 last season despite uneven quarterback play and a poor defense. Improvements in each area could put them in line to take the NFC South.
We’ll need to figure out what Atlanta has in Penix first. At this moment the Falcons are pretty happy to have their second-year quarterback. Nobody saw that coming when he was drafted.
Offseason grade
The Falcons’ huge trade up to draft James Pearce Jr. in the first round was widely criticized (the front office must be used to that by now). The Falcons overpaid, giving up 2025 second- and seventh-round picks as well as next year’s first-round pick to the Rams for the 26th overall pick, but Atlanta has struggled to find a decent pass rusher for years. It felt the need to make a dramatic move to solve the problem. The other first-round pick of edge rusher Jalon Walker at 15th overall was fantastic value. Defense was the focus of the offseason. The key moves were re-signing cornerback Mike Hughes, then adding linebacker Divine Deablo, pass rusher Leonard Floyd and defensive end Morgan Fox. Atlanta got better on defense, though cutting defensive tackle Grady Jarrett in a salary cap related move did hurt.
Advertisement
Grade: C
Quarterback report
The Falcons weren’t able to trade Kirk Cousins, but there are also reasons they didn’t cut him before a $10 million roster bonus was due in March or give him away in a deal. Michael Penix Jr. isn’t a sure thing, and he had a long injury history in college too. The Falcons are paying too much for a backup quarterback, but how many teams see their seasons fall apart when the starter misses time and they have no decent backup option? Cousins looked bad last season, which is why he was benched, but he also was coming off an Achilles injury and has a pretty good 13-year NFL track record. If Penix gets injured or is ineffective, the Falcons still have a decent option. If Cousins ends up having to play and helps the Falcons win games, the cost won’t matter that much.
The Falcons have big expectations for Michael Penix Jr. in his second NFL season. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
(Todd Kirkland via Getty Images)
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “It’s Michael Penix Jr.’s team this season, and the Falcons will only go as far as he takes them. With a win total of 7.5 at BetMGM and favored to miss the postseason (-185), oddsmakers don’t have particularly high hopes for a Falcons team that spent two first-round picks on pass-rushers to fortify one of the league’s least feared D-lines. Atlanta has gone under its win total in six of the past seven seasons. Is this the year that RB Bijan Robinson truly breaks out? He has the fourth-best odds (12-to-1) to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “The longer I play fantasy football the more I want my rosters to skew younger, so I get the best part of a player’s career. Bijan Robinson is an appealing pick into his age-23 season, after outscoring all the backs over the final 12 weeks last year. It took new OC Zac Robinson some time to figure out Robinson’s best usage last year; he’s there now. I realize Robinson is high on everyone’s board, but he enters the summer as my RB1, the best of the backfield targets. I’m happy to pass on Saquon Barkley’s mileage (the workload last year is especially worrisome) and take a back who’s five years younger.”
Stat to remember
Only four teams had a pair of teammates in the top 25 of yards from scrimmage last season: Bengals (Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown), Vikings (Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones), Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown) and Falcons (Bijan Robinson, Drake London). Robinson had 1,887 yards, fourth in the NFL, and London ranked 25th with 1,268. The duo combined for 161 catches; 100 from London and Robinson had 61. Even better for Atlanta, London will be just 24 years old this season and Robinson will be 23.
Advertisement
Atlanta rode one of the best running back/receiver duos in the NFL hard last season and that’s unlikely to change. Darnell Mooney is a good complimentary receiver. Tight end Kyle Pitts probably is never going to recapture his rookie season form. The Falcons didn’t add anyone of note at the skill positions. The whole offense will rotate around Robinson and London again. Michael Penix Jr. peppered London with targets in his three starts, throwing to him 39 times. Robinson was a workhorse all season. We go into the season knowing exactly who will be getting a majority of the work in Atlanta’s offense.
Burning question
Can 2 rookie pass rushers fix the defense?
The Falcons haven’t had a good defense in many years, and that’s a trend through their franchise history. Atlanta has finished in the NFL’s top 10 of points allowed and yards allowed just once since 1998 and only three times since 1977. The Falcons have finished 18th or worse in points allowed seven straight seasons (and 23rd or worse five of the past seven seasons). Part of the recent problem is pass rush. The Falcons haven’t had a player get more than eight sacks in a season since Adrian Clayborn in 2017. That better change soon after the Falcons used first-round picks on pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. If both of them pay off right away, maybe the Falcons field a defense that finishes in the top half of the league. It has been a while.
Best case scenario
Michael Penix Jr. was a fantastic college quarterback and the Falcons saw enough late last season to turn over the offense to him going forward. We saw the 2024 rookie quarterback class shine last season, and maybe Penix fits right in with that group. If Penix hits, the Falcons have a good offensive line and stars at running back and receiver. The offense could be really good. If the defensive additions drag that unit to an average level, the Falcons could win the NFC South and be in line to control the division for a while.
Nightmare scenario
If we see the Falcons voluntarily start Kirk Cousins this season, we’ll know things have gone awry for Atlanta. Michael Penix Jr.’s emergence last season has been overstated a bit. He had some good plays but also was far from a finished product. What if he gets exposed over a full season? He has a long injury history too. Cousins is theoretically a reliable veteran — he still needs to show last season’s dip wasn’t his new level going forward — but turning to him because Penix struggles would undo a lot of the excitement the Falcons have going into the season. If the Falcons don’t have a winning season because of bad luck, injuries or the defense being poor again, that’s not the worst outcome. Penix taking a big step backward would be.
The crystal ball says
Michael Penix Jr. should be just fine. He has elite talent. However, it’s asking a lot for him to be an instant superstar. Last season was a solid debut but it’s not like he was Jayden Daniels right away. There’s work to do. Also, it’s hard to believe the Falcons defense can go from 29th in DVOA to the top half of the NFL just because they added two first-round pass rushers. It often takes rookie pass rushers at least a year to adjust to the NFL. It wouldn’t be fun for the Falcons to have a losing season and then watch the Rams select in their spot in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, but that seems like a reasonable prediction. Unless Penix does hit his ceiling right away, which isn’t an impossible dream.
Read the full article here