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At the moment Philadelphia Eagles rookie Cooper DeJean was cutting across the field after baiting a frustrated Patrick Mahomes into an easy interception, or maybe when DeJean was weaving through the last few Kansas City Chiefs near the end zone to give his team a 17-0 lead, reality started sinking in: The Eagles were going to win Super Bowl LIX.
They were clearly a better team that night than Kansas City, which was going for a historic Super Bowl three-peat. It was a culmination of a season that, from the start of October to that dominant day in New Orleans, saw Philadelphia win 16 of 17 games. In the only game they lost, Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the game due to a concussion in the first quarter, the Eagles were facing a 12-win Washington Commanders team on the road and Washington still didn’t score its game-winning touchdown until six seconds remained. That’s how close the Eagles came to entering this season on a 17-game winning streak.
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The Eagles won a Super Bowl at the end of the 2017 season too, but this recent title feels different. For the first one, Philadelphia was the underdog late in the season after Carson Wentz went down and they went on a great postseason run. It seemed like the 2018 Eagles could slip a bit, and they had just a 9-7 record as reigning champs. The Eagles kept fading after that too, as they failed to win double-digit games or a playoff game for three more seasons that followed.
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It’s hard to imagine this Eagles team slumping like that. The defense that led the NFL in yards allowed and absolutely suffocated Mahomes and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl was the youngest defense in the NFL last season. The only starters on a star-filled offense who were older than 27 years old last season were right tackle Lane Johnson and tight end Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia lost talent in the offseason, as champions often do, but no team is better suited to absorb those losses. General manager Howie Roseman has built the deepest roster in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley, who had one of the greatest running back seasons ever after signing with the Eagles, noted after the Super Bowl, “Why not start our dynasty now?” Barkley amended that statement later.
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“I said after the game, ‘Why can’t our dynasty start now?’ I probably had a little bit of Champagne and other stuff in my system at the time,” Barkley said, via Michael Greger. “But you really can’t focus on that, you’ve just got to enjoy the moment. It’s hard to win one.”
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It’s fine for Barkley to backtrack, but his initial bravado was justified. Philadelphia is loaded. Barkley rushed for 2,000 yards last season. Hurts improved his already lofty standing among NFL quarterbacks with a Super Bowl MVP award. The Eagles have a great offensive line, two elite receivers and a defense that might be the best in football this season. Trying to find a weakness on the Eagles’ roster will be a waste of time.
Yet, as the 2018 Eagles found out, it’s hard to repeat. The Eagles played a lot of extra football last season. Sometimes you can be the best team and still not win three or four playoff games in a row to take the title. Injuries happen. For all of the celebration of the Eagles now, two teams had a better record last season and a third matched them at 14-3. Philadelphia will be remembered as a great champion but it took everyone a long time to come around to how dominant that team was from September on. The Eagles weren’t favored in that Super Bowl last February and practically nobody was picking them to win. There will be some revisionist history on how we viewed that Eagles team up until that moment DeJean put Super Bowl LIX on ice.
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For now though, the Eagles have every reason to believe that great win over the Chiefs was the start of a multi-year run. The first time the Eagles won the Super Bowl it was a “now I can die in peace” moment for a fan base that had been desperate for one title. This time around, nobody would be satisfied if this group stopped at just one Super Bowl.
Cooper DeJean and the Philadelphia Eagles celebrate DeJean’s touchdown off a Patrick Mahomes interception in Super Bowl LIX. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
(Gregory Shamus via Getty Images)
Offseason grade
The depth of a roster shouldn’t affect an offseason grade. We should look at how much talent was acquired and lost. And if that’s the criteria, the Eagles had a tough offseason. Two of the six most expensive free agents to change teams left the Eagles: Defensive tackle Milton Williams got $104 million from the New England Patriots, which was the richest contract among players changing teams this offseason, and defensive end Josh Sweat got $76.4 million from the Arizona Cardinals. Both players were fantastic in Super Bowl LIX and for much of their time in Philadelphia. Guard Mekhi Becton also left, as he signed with the Los Angeles Chargers, and cornerback Darius Slay went to the Pittsburgh Steelers after he was released. The Eagles didn’t sign a single free agent who got more than $3 million total (the one that got $3 million was pass rusher Azeez Ojulari). The Eagles prioritized retaining All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun after his massive breakout last season, and were able to bring him back. That was a win, and everyone knew the Eagles had to be selective given their salary cap situation. The draft brought linebacker Jihaad Campbell and safety Andrew Mukuba with their only top-100 picks, and once again analysts defaulted to overpraising Eagles general manager Howie Roseman for the class, which happens no matter how good the Eagles’ draft really is. Roseman has earned plenty of that praise for his roster building, which is why the Eagles should be fine even after an offseason that saw more losses than gains.
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Grade: C
Quarterback report
Jalen Hurts passed only 361 times in the regular season. That’s almost 300 fewer attempts than Joe Burrow, who had 652. Hurts was 22nd in attempts, and more telling, Philadelphia was dead last in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) at -8.7%. He had more than 30 attempts in a game just once after September. That’s not necessarily an indictment of Hurts, who had a career-best 103.7 passer rating. But the Eagles became a Saquon Barkley-centric team, especially as their defense rose to an elite status. When the Chiefs focused on taking away Barkley in the Super Bowl, Hurts rose to the occasion with 221 yards passing and two touchdowns with another 72 yards rushing and a touchdown as he won Super Bowl MVP. The Eagles have a tougher schedule this season and might need more from Hurts as a passer if they play more close games.
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “The champs are back and basically managed to keep the band together. One of the league’s best defenses added depth (Josh Uche, Azeez Ojulari, Adoree’ Jackson, Jihaad Campbell, Andrew Mukuba), and should be able to keep players fresh for another postseason run as a result. The Eagles (+650) are deserving Super Bowl favorites at BetMGM, are tied for the NFL’s highest win total of 11.5 and are the clear favorite at +325 to grab the NFC’s top seed again. Still, Philadelphia is only a -150 favorite to repeat as NFC East champion.”
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Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Saquon Barkley’s season has ‘outlier’ stamped all over it, with 15 touchdowns coming from an astounding average of 29.4 yards. The Eagles didn’t give Barkley a single touchdown from the 1-yard line — that’s Jalen Hurts’ territory — and Barkley remarkably kept hitting those glorious home runs. But 5.8 YPCs are always poor bets to repeat (De’Von Achane waves hello) and Barkley might have trouble staying healthy after handling a ridiculous 482 touches last season. Pricing in some regression is the prudent play; let’s not forget that Barkley missed multiple games in each of the five seasons preceding his move to Philadelphia.”
Stat to remember
The Eagles had the youngest defense in the NFL last season and it will be even younger this season. According to NBC Sports Philadelphia, the average age of the Eagles’ defense will be 23.9 years old if cornerback Kelee Ringo and safety Andrew Mukuba win position battles in training camp. Zack Baun, at 28 years old, is the only locked-in starter who is older than 27. Depending on position battles, 10 starters could be 26 or younger and seven could be 24 or younger, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia. That’s not a bad thing. The Eagles’ youthful energy was a reason they gave up the fewest yards in the NFL last season and had an all-time great Super Bowl performance. Jalen Carter just turned 24 years old and might be the best defensive tackle in the NFL already. Others like defensive end Nolan Smith Jr., defensive tackle Jordan Davis and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are already impact players still on their rookie deals. Linebacker Nakobe Dean is another young star, but he’s coming off a season-ending knee injury. The Eagles drafted Jihaad Campbell in the first round to ensure no dropoff at that spot as Dean works his way back. This Eagles’ defense seems set to be a top-five unit for a few years to come.
Burning question
Will Saquon Barkley’s numbers fall off?
Last season Saquon Barkley had a remarkable 482 touches, counting postseason. That’s the most in the NFL since Demarco Murray in 2014. That season Murray had 2,261 total yards, and it fell to 1,024 yards in just one fewer game the following season. The fantasy football community has pointed out often this offseason that running backs with Barkley’s 2024 level workload almost always experience a steep dropoff the following season. Barkley had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, with 2,005 rushing yards, 2,283 yards from scrimmage and and 15 touchdowns and then another 574 total yards and five touchdowns in the postseason. He won NFL Offensive Player of the Year and in another era, before MVP became a quarterback-only award, he would have had a shot at that too. And while Barkley showed no signs of falling off as the season went on, it’s hard to deny the recent history. It seems very unlikely Barkley approaches those same numbers again. A lot went right for him, and the team as a whole. The Eagles didn’t have many injuries last season, finishing second in fewest adjusted games lost due to injury. That was a lucky run. Nobody is hoping for a Barkley injury and there’s nothing that indicates it will happen, but expecting Barkley to replicate his special season probably isn’t wise.
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Best-case scenario
It’s hard to believe, but there is a path for the Eagles to improve. The Eagles had a really young defense last season and they’ll have another offseason getting used to coordinator Vic Fangio’s scheme. We forget that late last season there was controversy over A.J. Brown saying last December that the team’s passing game needed to improve, and he wasn’t wrong. Philadelphia was 2-2 in September last season and there were questions in October about Nick Sirianni’s job security, and it seems hard to believe that slow start will happen again. Even the tush push remains after some teams tried to get rid of it in the offseason. Going 18-3 again, and being nearly perfect from the start of October on, is a tough ask. But Philadelphia can feel like it’s possible.
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Nightmare scenario
Just about every time a team wins a Super Bowl, it looks like it could be the first of many. The Eagles aren’t the first champ to get dynasty predictions after a title. But many of those teams never make it back to the Super Bowl. Life in the NFL can be unpredictable. Would we be talking about the Eagles like we do had the Los Angeles Rams gotten those final 13 yards in the final minutes of the divisional round to win at Philadelphia? Of course not. It’s easy to look at the Eagles’ roster and marvel at the high number of blue-chip players, but that doesn’t guarantee another title. The floor for the Eagles is very high, as long as their injury luck from last season doesn’t flip the other way, but there are other capable contenders and making Super Bowls is difficult. If the Eagles don’t repeat, at least as NFC champs, it would be viewed as a disappointment.
The crystal ball says
The Eagles did not have the best record in the NFC last season, or the best point differential in the league, they didn’t finish first in key metrics like DVOA (they were fifth) or yards per play differential (fourth), they weren’t favored to win a championship when the playoffs started or even when Super Bowl LIX kicked off. Yet they were an easy pick to be No. 1 in these rankings. They earned it. A dominant postseason run sticks in our memories for a long time, and it’s hard to deny the overall talent level of this Eagles roster. Yet, I’ll stop short of picking them to repeat as Super Bowl champions (the Ravens will be my pick this preseason). It’s rare to repeat, and the Eagles schedule gets a lot tougher this season (it was fourth-easiest last season via DVOA and is fourth-toughest this season according to Sharp Football’s projections). It obviously wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Eagles repeated of course. And if they do, it will probably be time to hand over the dynasty crown from the Chiefs to the Eagles.
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