Alright, there was a lot of movement on the first day of the “legal tampering period,” so we’re going to try to hit on some big themes here. In general, the market reacted as we expected, as players, for the most part, signed deals in order of their ranking on our NFL Free Agency Consensus T0p-200 Big Board.
Pretty neat data!
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The biggest surprise, so far, is probably guard Zion Johnson signing a $16.5 million per year deal with the Cleveland Browns. He was ranked as the 73rd overall player in the free agency class and the seventh overall guard. At the moment, he ranks 12th in APY (average per year) in this class, and the average rank of the players who signed for more than him (APY-wise) on the consensus board is 13.5. He got paid about 70% higher than expected. Good for him.
Top-50 Free Agents Remaining
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1: Trey Hendrickson, EDGE
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28: Alijah Vera-Tucker, G
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47: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE
There’s still some meat on the bone, even if 27 of the top 50 free agents have already agreed to sign with their new team. Interestingly, two Green Bay Packers are among the top-six players who are still out there on the market. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s something to pay attention to.
The NFL Fights Back
We’re seeing close to $25 million increases on the cap year over year, which means that you tend to see the prices also increase year over year. Two positions where this wasn’t necessarily true this year, though, were off-ball linebacker and cornerback.
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Linebacker
Last season, Nick Bolton and Jamien Sherwood, two non-Pro Bowl or All-Pro linebackers, were able to secure $15 million per year deals to return to their team just ahead of the free agency period starting. To many, this was a sign that the starting price for true starting linebackers coming off of rookie contracts now began at $15 million per year.
Reality hit those who represent linebackers pretty hard on Monday, as Devin Lloyd, an All-Pro last year, was only able to match the $15 million per year that Bolton and Sherwood signed to. Some believed that Lloyd would make around $20 million per year on this next deal. On top of that, Quay Walker ($13.5 million per), Nakobe Dean ($12 million per), Tremaine Edmunds ($12 million per) and Devin Bush ($10 million per) all signed well below that $15 million per year price.
It seems like the market is pushing back a little on the 2025 pricing of the position, when supply was a little more scarce. It’s pretty unusual for players’ prices to drop in a market, even when the supply changes, because of the increasing salary cap. With that being said, teams have been spending above the cap so consistently since the pandemic that some clubs (not all) are running out of runway to borrow from to keep their teams together.
For example, it’s virtually impossible for the Philadelphia Eagles, who haven’t made any moves in free agency, to clear any cap space with a simple restructure of their own contracts anymore. They flat out have to dump to add (or extend) moving forward.
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Cornerback
The other position where you saw some market pushback was at cornerback. Last year, four cornerbacks without all-star accolades were able to secure $18 million per year contracts. Again, this was taken as “the price of a legitimate starting cornerback coming off a rookie contract now starts at $18 million.” Again, this assumption was wrong (these types of assumptions have been right at other positions, but have been wrong at linebacker and cornerback, specifically).
While Paulson Adebo, an average corner coming off A BROKEN LEG, was able to net $18 million per last offseason, the top-ranked cornerback in this year’s class, Jaylen Watson, agreed to sign for $17 million per on Monday. Jamael Dean, who is on the older side at 30 years old, signed for just $12.25 million per after being ranked as the third corner in the class and the 17th player overall. For perspective, D.J. Reed (who was 29 last year) was able to get $16 million per in 2025.
The only cornerback who was able to beat the $18 million per year price point was the Tennessee Titans’ signing of Alontae Taylor at $19.3 million per. Taylor has been an average-ish cornerback who has been moving from slot to outside cornerback (back and forth) throughout his NFL career. Over the next two years, he’ll make $8 million more than all-star cornerback Patrick Surtain II of the Denver Broncos. This might go very poorly for Tennessee!
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Beyond Taylor, though, it does feel like the market has pushed back. The remaining top cornerback APYs that we haven’t already touched on include Cordale Flott ($15 million per), Montaric Brown ($10.6 million per), Eric Stokes ($10 million per), Josh Jobe ($8 million per) and Amik Robertson ($8 million per).
All of the top-80 ranked cornerbacks in this class have already signed, beyond Tariq Woolen (ranked 16th) and Nashon Wright (ranked 37th).
Runs – By Position
Here’s how many of the top-200 free agents have signed, by position, so far.
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Linebacker: 10 of 19 (53%)
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Cornerback: 11 of 24 (46%)
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Running Back: 6 of 14 (43%)
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Interior Defensive Line: 6 of 14 (43%)
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Edge Defender: 9 of 28 (32%)
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Quarterback: 2 of 9 (22%)
The safety, quarterback (in part because some of these players haven’t officially been made available yet as cap casualties) and tackle markets have been moving very slowly, while the centers (no surprise because of the short supply), tight ends and nose tackles flew off the boards on Day 1.
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The tackle market is interesting, as teams may be waiting on a Rasheed Walker (sixth-ranked free agent) decision, but there’s also the question of where Trent Williams is going to play in 2026. It doesn’t appear that the San Francisco 49ers want to pay him at his current price, but he hasn’t been released or traded yet. Willis is a 37-year-old, but Walker is the only young full-time starter on the market anyway. I can see why the market might wait and see what’s going to happen with the 12-time Pro Bowler before teams start inking players to deals.
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We’ll keep our consensus free agent board updated throughout the week if you want to follow along. Also, keep an eye on our cap casualty tracker as new names will become available.
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