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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs enter the season looking to reestablish themselves atop the AFC West, with the two-time MVP targeting a September return after suffering a devastating ACL tear late in the 2025 campaign.
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While there’s still no official timetable for Patrick Mahomes’ return, the superstar joins new Minnesota Vikings signal-caller Kyler Murray among the early favorites in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds.
Here are the latest NFL odds as we build toward Week 1.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
|
Player |
Position |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Patrick Mahomes |
QB |
+150 |
|
Kyler Murray |
QB |
+550 |
|
Micah Parsons |
Edge |
+1000 |
|
Malik Nabers |
WR |
+1000 |
|
Daniel Jones |
QB |
+1600 |
|
Nick Bosa |
DE |
+1900 |
|
Fred Warner |
LB |
+1900 |
|
Tucker Kraft |
TE |
+2500 |
|
George Kittle |
TE |
+2500 |
|
Cam Skattebo |
RB |
+2700 |
Odds as of 5-25-2026. Odds from FanDuel, one of our best betting apps. Sign up with our FanDuel promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year opening odds
Here is a look at the opening odds for NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Patrick Mahomes (+150) opened as the betting favorite.
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year prediction
Concussion history aside, Tua Tagovailoa will really benefit from a change of scenery.
Heading into a one-year contract with the Atlanta Falcons, the former fifth overall pick will have a leg up on Michael Penix Jr. in training camp, as Penix continues to recover from the partially torn ACL he suffered a year ago.
Tua spent three consecutive years from 2022–2024 leading the league in either passer rating, passing yards, or completion percentage, and landing in an offense featuring Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts could give the Falcons quarterback production similar to his best days under Mike McDaniel.
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Tagovailoa will also escape the cold conditions of the AFC East, no longer having to play in Buffalo or Foxborough, instead spending half his time indoors at home in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, along with favorable environments in New Orleans and Tampa Bay.
If anything, Tagovailoa should feel like he’s back in his SEC college days.
CPOY Pick: Tua Tagovailoa (+4000 at FanDuel)
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends
• Over the last eight years, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has gone to a quarterback seven times.
• From 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year, and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation.
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• Joe Burrow joins Chad Pennington (2006 and 2008) as the only player to win this award twice.
Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners
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