NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Can Aaron Donald Win It?

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds favorite as he attempts to work his way back from a devastating ACL tear suffered at the end of the 2025-26 campaign.

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However, an intriguing new candidate is climbing up the board in Aaron Donald, who came out of retirement to join the Los Angeles Rams on a one-year contract worth up to $30 million.

Let’s look at the latest NFL odds as we build toward Week 1.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds

Odds as of 8-31. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

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Hollywood sequel for Aaron Donald?

Three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald has officially come out of retirement to rejoin Los Angeles Rams, the current Super Bowl odds favorites. He’s currently given an 8% probability at Kalshi to win the award, but should he even be eligible?

The CPOY guidelines were recently codified following Joe Flacco’s “Comeback from Sucking” in 2023-24.

“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

A voluntary retirement by Donald certainly wouldn’t fit that criteria, but it might not stop voters from casting their ballots for No. 99 anyway.

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NFL Comeback Player of the Year prediction

Concussion history aside, Tua Tagovailoa should really benefit from a change of scenery with the Atlanta Falcons.

Tua spent three consecutive years from 2022–2024 leading the league in either passer rating, passing yards, or completion percentage, and landing in an offense featuring Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts could give the Falcons quarterback production similar to his best days under Mike McDaniel.

Tagovailoa will also escape the cold conditions of the AFC East, no longer having to play in Buffalo or Foxborough, instead spending half his time indoors at home in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, along with favorable environments in New Orleans and Tampa Bay. 

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If anything, Tagovailoa should feel like he’s back in his SEC college days.

CPOY Pick: Tua Tagovailoa (1% probability at Kalshi)

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NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends

• Over the last eight years, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has gone to a quarterback seven times.

• From 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year, and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation. 

• Joe Burrow joins Chad Pennington (2006 and 2008) as the only player to win this award twice.

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Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners

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