The goal of every sports bettor is to win, but there are different avenues to success.
My goal at Yahoo Sports is to gain closing line value and to hold a positive expected value wager at kickoff. If the current line represents 50/50 on either side, and betting -110 represents a 52.4% breakeven hit rate, then the edges needed to be a successful sports bettor are obtained by gaining winning numbers on your side relative to the closing line.
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On Tuesday I recommended taking the Seattle Seahawks at +1 on “Thursday Night Football” against the Arizona Cardinals. The current consensus line is now Seahawks -1.5. While that move may seem trivial at first glance, landing on the 1 has been the fourth-most common NFL outcome the last three seasons with over 5% of games having that point differential. We can also say that games priced a specific number are more likely to land on that number, bumping up the 5% rate a bit. Now, Seattle Seahawks +1 bettors have over a 55% expected hit rate on a 52.38% price tag. That is how I produce long-term winning results.
So can value still be found on Thursday night? Let’s dive into the spread, total and a player prop worth betting.
The Seattle Seahawks are currently flying high and are favored on Thursday night. (AP Photo/Ben VanHouten)
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The spread: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+1)
The NFC West might be the best division in the NFL this season. The Seahawks are currently in last place at 2-1. The 49ers are 3-0 with division wins over both Seattle and Arizona, the Rams are 2-1 without a divisional loss, and the Cardinals currently own a tiebreaker over the Seahawks. Regardless of the current standings, the strength of this division means every divisional game is going to be pivotal. As Jim Harbaugh would joke, divisional games are worth 2, 2.5, even 3 games in the standings.
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The advantage Seattle currently has is health. The Seahawks should have a healthy team, including the return of running back Zach Charbonnet. Their questionable players include (DE) Leonard Williams, (CB) Devon Witherspoon, (S) Julian Love, (TE) Elijah Arroyo and (FB) Robbie Ouzts. That lengthy list of questionable players can likely be attributed to injury reporting on a short week and giving players a break from practice — all are on track to play except for possibly Ouzts.
The Arizona Cardinals injury report tells a much different story. The biggest name is RB James Conner, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 3. Conner has been the focal point for the Cardinals offense the last few seasons, so this is a major blow going against a stout defense. Zay Jones will also miss the game because he’s in concussion protocol, and guard Will Hernandez is a true 50/50 questionable as of now.
On defense, the Cardinals have lost S Joey Blount, CB Garrett Williams and DE L.J. Collier since the season began. CB Will Johnson has also started the week as a non-participant in practice with a groin injury. This team has been hit hard with injuries early in the season.
Because of these factors, the short-week advantage goes to Seattle in a big way. I do not see any market resistance coming in late on Arizona and think line movement will continue to be in one direction. I would still back the Seahawks at the best available number, which is -1 (-110) at BetMGM. The -115 on the money line is actually a 1 cent better value on every dollar bet, so play the ML here.
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The pick: Seahawks ML -115
The total: over/under 43.5
Let’s approach the total from a market perspective. When Week 4 lines emerged, the total was priced between 43.5 and 44. Some books hung a 44, while BetMGM had 43.5 (-120) toward the over. Now looking at the odds, it is 43.5 across the board, with some Las Vegas casinos pricing this down to 43. The under is the play, according to the betting market.
I would tend to agree. Arizona’s offense lost a bevy of weapons and the Seattle defense is one of the strongest units in the NFL. The Seattle offense has been impressive, ranking 13th in rushing first downs, fourth in rushing touchdowns and first in goal-to-go rushing yards per carry. The only major rushing stat that is not better than league average is rushing yards per carry. Combining subpar yards per carry with a high volume of first downs and touchdowns on the ground shows Seattle is a high-volume rushing offense, which should favor the under as well.
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The only caveat to this line still holding a lot of value is 44 is a key number for NFL totals. Since we missed the 44, 43.5 toward the under is still a decent bet but the value has decreased. I would only consider playing it for half a unit and not a normal staked bet. Under or nothing, but make it small.
The pick: Under 43.5
The prop market: Kyler Murray under 1.5 passing TDs (-160)
This prop falls in line with everything detailed above. The under on the game total, liking the Seattle Seahawks on the money line and loving the Seattle defense as an elite unit. It is also a market play, as this line is priced around -175 at many other books, but BetMGM still has it at -160. That 15 cent discrepancy will likely help obtain closing line value in the prop market. Trey McBride has never had much red-zone chemistry with Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. is not living up to his status as a top-five NFL Draft pick, and Jones is out with a concussion. I expect Murray to look to run, and the Cardinals to try to establish Trey Benson on the ground in the red area.
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Other props I considered as honorable mentions: Sam Darnold over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115), Sam Darnold over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+150), Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115), Sam Darnold over 7.5 rushing yards (-110).
I am generally very anti-parlay as a bettor, but considering some of these have inverse correlation to the totals market, I am not opposed to placing a very small amount on Seattle ML/favorite Darnold prop/JSN receiving yards over/full-game under. If the payout hovers around 12 to 1, go for it.
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