Luka Dončić thought he would spend the rest of his career with the Dallas Mavericks; that, as he was (and we were) stunned to learn back in February, won’t happen. What comes next, now that the Los Angeles Lakers team that traded for the Slovenian superstar has been eliminated from the 2025 NBA playoffs, is Dončić figuring out what Plan B for his future will look like — a process that starts with some contractual decisions.
A 26-year-old, five-time All-Star and All-NBA First Team selection, Dončić is on the Lakers’ books for just under $46 million next season, and holds a player option for nearly $49 million in the 2026-27 campaign. And on Aug. 2, six months from the date of his league-rattling trade to the Lakers, he will become eligible for an extension of his current contract — one that could cement him as the next signature superstar to carry the NBA’s preeminent glamour franchise into the next decade.
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Dončić — who averaged 28.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.5 assists per regular-season game as a Laker, and 30.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game during L.A.’s five-game defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves — said after the Lakers’ elimination that he’d been too wrapped up in a whirlwind the last three months to give much attention to the prospect of opening up extension talks with his new employers.
“I didn’t think about it yet,” he told reporters after the Game 5 loss to the Wolves. “I’ve been focused on basketball. So obviously, this is the time now to think about everything.”
Whether or not Dončić has been thinking about it, it’s pretty safe to assume that both Dončić’s agent, WME’s Bill Duffy, and Lakers president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka have been mulling it over for months — even dating back to before the blockbuster deal to extract him from Dallas was consummated. Jovan Buha and Sam Amick of The Athletic reported that Dončić’s “uncertain long-term status was the primary reason the Lakers were able to avoid giving up their 2031 first-round pick in the deal” that brought him to Los Angeles, and that the Lakers “will be amenable to whatever contract structure Dončić desires.”
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The potentially-more-than-half-a-billion-dollar question: What structure is that, exactly?
This much we know for sure: It won’t be the projected five-year, $345.3 million deal that Dončić could have signed in Dallas. The collective bargaining agreement between the NBA’s teams and the league’s players union stipulates that the designated veteran player extension (DVPE) — colloquially known as the supermax — can only be offered to a player by either the team that drafted him, or a team that acquired him while he was still on his rookie-scale contract. Since Dončić, the third pick in the 2018 NBA draft, cycled off of his initial pact back in 2022, the DVPE is off the table.
What can be on the table, come Aug. 2, is an extension that starts at 30% of the salary cap, with 8% raises, that can tack up to an extra four years onto his existing contract. With current projections placing the 2026-27 salary cap at just over $170.1 million, Dončić could earn a maximum of just over $228.6 million through the end of the 2029-30 NBA season — about $38.1 million less than he could’ve made over those four seasons in Dallas, and nearly $117 million less than the total value of the five-year supermax.
That’s not the only option available, though.
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Dončić could also play out next season, exercise his 2026-27 opt-out to enter unrestricted free agency, and then sign a new deal with the Lakers that could pay him $296 million over a five-year stretch, ending in 2030-31. That’s an awfully hefty chunk of change; it’s also still below what he would’ve been eligible for in Dallas, and a payday that he’d have to wait a year to lock in.
Another option for narrowing the gap in total compensation: Dončić, who just completed his seventh NBA season, could sign a shorter-term deal with the Lakers now — one that allows him to dip back into free agency in the summer of 2028. That’s when he will have reached 10 years of service time, which, under the rules laid out in the CBA, makes him eligible to sign a new five-year deal with a starting salary of up to 35% of the salary cap.
A three-year max extension right now, with a player option for 2028-29, would top out at just over $165.3 million. With the 2028-29 cap line currently projected at nearly $208.4 million, a subsequent five-year, 35% max contract would put Dončić in line to earn more than $417.8 million through the end of the 2032-33 season — adding up to just under $524 million in new money over the next seven seasons.
The main takeaway from all those options? While Dončić isn’t exactly going to be hard up for cash no matter which path he picks, the road likeliest to lead to the largest possible bag accumulation would be signing a three-year deal now, opting back out when he hits 10 years of service time, and then signing a five-year, full-boat, all-the-toppings max in 2028.
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That said: No projected future contract is ever guaranteed until the ink is dry on the contract — even when it comes to the lure of Hollywood. (To wit: Dwight Howard.)
If, for whatever reason, Dončić decided he preferred flexibility to locking in guaranteed money now, he could sit tight, play out next season and see how things shook out before making a choice on his future. And if, for whatever reason, the way events unfold next season led him to choose to leave L.A., he could opt out in the summer of 2026 and sign a new deal with another suitor for up to 30% of the salary cap. The team signing him, though, could only give Dončić a 5% year-over-year raise, rather than the 8% bump the incumbent Lakers could offer; that means the top dollar he could get elsewhere would be about $219.4 million through the end of the 2029-30 season.
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That scenario projects as highly unlikely for a couple of reasons. For one thing, players presented with the opportunity to sign for as much money as possible today rarely say, “Nah, I think I’ll wait until tomorrow.” For another? The early returns suggest that Luka likes L.A.
“It’s been great, honestly. The way the fans accepted me has been amazing,” Dončić told reporters. “I’m glad I’m here, I had a great couple of months … trying to learn about the city, about the team, just trying to process everything.”
To put a finer point on it: Asked by ESPN’s Malika Andrews during a recent sitdown if he wanted to spend the rest of his career with the Lakers, Dončić quickly answered, “Yes.”
It’s tough to put a price tag on happiness and comfort. That’s what Luka’s about to start thinking about doing, though … and whichever option he picks, that price tag’s going to be awfully, awfully high.
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