NASCAR predictions 2026, expert picks for NASCAR Cup champion, Chase

NASCAR has returned.

The 2026 Cup Series season begins officially with the Daytona 500 on Feb. 15. What’s to look forward to this season? A 19-year-old wunderkind rookie making his full-time debut, a couple of new tracks (one you’ll recognize) on the schedule and a new championship format.

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Kyle Larson is the defending series champion, winning his second Cup title in November. Denny Hamlin fell just short of his first championship, then had a difficult offseason.

Who will make the NASCAR playoffs? Who will surprise and disappoint in the next 38 weeks? Here’s how The Tennessean’s experts see the 2026 NASCAR season playing out:

2026 STORYLINES: NASCAR top 20 storylines heading into 2026 season, including the Chase return

NASCAR predictions 2026: Who will win Cup Series title?

The biggest surprise in the NASCAR Cup Series this season will be . . .

Mike Organ, sports reporter: Spire Motorsports was wise to give Carson Hocevar a long-term contract into the next decade because the driver of the No. 77 Chevrolet is on the brink of a breakout. The 23-year-old won rookie of the year honors in 2024 and finished 21st in the championship standings in 2025. That was only two places higher than his 2024 finish, but back-to-back solid seasons will equip Hocevar to knock on the door of the top 10 in 2026.

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Nick Gray, trending reporter: RFK Racing’s emergence across all three race teams in the Chase era. Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece and Brad Keselowski will fare better in a system that rewards consistency and strategy. Preece’s win in the Clash only reinforced this belief. Buescher could be a stealth championship contender in 2026.

Tom Kreager, sports director: Kyle Larson hits a bump on the road. He struggles mightily and fails to make the Chase.

Who or what will be the biggest disappointment in the NASCAR Cup Series this season?

Organ: The pressure is on 23XI Racing’s Riley Herbst after co-owner Denny Hamlin said he expects more from Herbst in 2026. With Corey Heim, a talented driver, waiting for his shot with the 23XI team, Herbst — who did not have a top-10 finish in 2025 — will struggle.

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Gray: Kyle Busch will be around the Chase bubble for most of the summer but again will miss out on competing for the championship. It’s not the way he should be spending his post-prime Cup Series years, but he’s the one who re-signed with RCR. Lying in made beds, etc.

Kreager: Christopher Bell has looked like the best driver in the Cup Series at times in 2024 and 2025. That will again happen in 2026. But he will falter down the stretch and fail to win a NASCAR Cup championship for Joe Gibbs Racing.

2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase picks

Mike Organ’s picks: Ross Chastain, Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, Shane Van Gisbergen.

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Nick Gray’s picks: Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, Ryan Preece, Carson Hocevar.

Tom Kreager’s picks: Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar.

2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion

Mike Organ’s picks: Ryan Blaney. It’s difficult to imagine the driver of the No. 12 Team Penske Ford having worse luck than he had in 2025 and yet he still he finished sixth in the Cup standings with 19 top-10s. He was a contender with all that bad fortune, and the law of averages suggests he’ll have more go his way in 2026. Blaney should be credited for never losing his confidence, and his resilience will pay off this season.

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Nick Gray’s pick: Chase Elliott. Elliott’s driving style and approach fit this format better than the playoff system. And if needed in the Chase, he is well overdue for a hot stretch.

Tom Kreager’s pick: Denny Hamlin. Look, this is a sentimental pick. With what he has gone through with the loss of his dad and just missing out on winning the 2025 championship, he finally wins it in 2026.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NASCAR predictions 2026, expert picks for NASCAR Cup champion, Chase