Over the past few weeks, someone around here suggested Alex Bowman might’ve slipped into the playoffs by inches, but could very well make a deep postseason run and become a championship factor.
That same someone also said Shane van Gisbergen was bringing so many bonus points to the Round of 16, he’s a decent bet to make the Round of 12, which includes a road course and, well, you know how much SVG loves heavy braking and right-hand turns.
So if you came here in search of a sound playoff prognosis, abort. Couldn’t blame you. But you need to know there will be no such attempts at crystal-balling today, just some observations and overhead views of the lay of the land with all wagons pointed toward Bristol Motor Speedway.
That includes the bandwagon, by the way, and we’ll do our best to explain that vehicle of classic Americana and why Denny Hamlin feels obliged to commandeer it — maybe just temporarily, since bandwagons don’t often have long-lasting odometers.
First Gear: How safe is Chase Elliott above the bubble?
Let’s start with that overhead view of the standings and try getting a grip on things as the Round of 16 cutoff looms at Bristol, where the marketing team bills its track as “The Last Great Colosseum.”
Fortunately, when it comes to eliminations, Bristol doesn’t handle things they way the Romans did in the First Great Colosseum. In fact, not only will the four eliminated playoff drivers be gently escorted to the exit, they’ll even be allowed to come back in the ensuing weeks to keep racing for trophies, pride, sponsor incentives, etc.
Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin have won the first two playoff races and obviously locked up Round of 12 berths. These guys are either mathematically locked in or pert-near, as they say: Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and maybe even Chase Elliott.
Maybe Chase? Yes, just maybe. Chase is sitting ninth in points, 28 ahead of Austin Dillon in 13th. Things can happen, especially at Bristol, where you can run out of room in a hurry.
As a for-instance, Chase finished third Sunday at St. Louis and collected 38 points. The 27th-place car (Cole Custer) earned 10 points, 28 fewer than Chase, and that tells you how relatively easy it is to cough up a healthy points lead.
Until he hustled for a third-place finish Sunday, it appeared the highlight of his day was meeting Grand Marshall Bill Murray at the drivers meeting.
Second Gear: Clinging to playoff life with Alex Bowman
The above scenario would involve Austin Dillon finishing third at Bristol, where he’s never posted a top-three in 20 career Cup starts, but math is math.
Thankfully for Dillon, he doesn’t necessarily need third or better, because he’s just 11 points below the bubble in 13th place, with another Austin (Cindric) bubbling in 12th. If you’re watching from home Saturday night, good luck keeping up with the in-race graphic constantly updating who’s currently above and below the cut line.
Joining Dillon on the wrong side of the bubble are SVG (15 points out of 12th), Bowman (35 back) and the crumpled remains of poor Josh Berry’s No. 21 Ford (45 points back). How could you possibly have a worse start to the playoffs than Berry has suffered?
Trick question, because it’s mathematically impossible to finish worse than last at both Darlington and St. Louis. At Darlington, he bottomed out on the first lap and crashed. At St. Louis, he had help — Chase Elliott nosed Berry’s left-rear quarter entering a turn, and though he apologized later, he didn’t offer to loan Berry any points (barring a weekly rulebook change, this remains illegal, by the way).
If one of the bottom four wins at Bristol, things change dramatically, of course. Aside from Bowman, it’s hard to imagine that happening, however, and yes, I’m clinging to that earlier Bowman suggestion — by the fingernails, but clinging nonetheless.
Third Gear: Denny Hamlin is familiar with the bandwagon
Denny Hamlin has been field-testing various proclamations after winning races the past couple of years. There was his us-against-the-world T-shirt he showed off earlier this year — a nod to his adopted college football favorite, Ohio State.
And the line he’s tossed out more than once in post-win TV interviews: “I beat your favorite driver. All of ’em.”
And then came Sunday, when he brought back an old one and told those in the bleachers and those watching on TV: “You can either get on the bandwagon or get run over by it.”
After two decades of trying to win that elusive championship, Denny surely knows better than to predict continued dominance over the next couple of months. He was just enjoying the moment and the opportunity to poke back at those who prefer to boo him for various reasons.
He also knows about hopping on bandwagons, given his later-in-life conversion to an Ohio State Buckeye fan. Meanwhile, bandwagon? How did that become the go-to vehicle for fans of frontrunners?
Turns out, in older times, the bandwagon was just that — the wagon that carried a band during parades or in town-to-town tours by musical troupes. The wagon was loud, colorful and downright fun. Who wouldn’t want to be a part of it?
But those wagon wheels could be as unpredictable as a race-day Goodyear if not bolted on properly. So Denny should enjoy the music every chance he gets and, just in case, tip the fiddler.
Fourth Gear: Connor Zilisch speeding toward Xfinity history
Dating back to the start of the modern Xfinity Series in 1982, only Sam Ard — in 1983 — reached double-digits in victories while also winning the championship. He won 10 that year and eight the next in repeating as champ in the Busch Series, as it was known then.
Why bring that up?
Because Connor Zilisch got his ninth win of 2025 this past weekend at St. Louis. Want to talk about a heater? Connor Z has now won four straight Xfinity races and seven of his last eight starts (yes, including Daytona three weeks back when Zilisch, recovering from the collarbone injury, gave way to Parker Kligerman).
In 15 races since crashing at Talladega in late April, Connor Z also has three runner-up finishes and nothing worse than a fifth. Granted, another runner-up in two months at Phoenix could cost him the championship in a season he’s dominated.
But if you’re a member of Trackhouse Racing’s No. 99 team, you have to be eager to get him in your car next February. Unless you’re Daniel Suarez, of course.
Oh, by the way, Connor Z still has work to do if he’s going to set the all-time Xfinity record. Kyle Busch won 13 Xfinity races in 2010 while moonlighting from his Cup job, but sat out six Xfinity starts and therefore didn’t win the title.
Surely you remember Kyle Busch, right? Sure do miss him.
— Email Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com
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