It took two Games 5s and a whole lot of extra innings, but we’re down to the final four in the MLB postseason.
It’s Mariners vs. Blue Jays and Dodgers vs. Brewers, with ALCS Game 1 kicking things off on Sunday and NLCS Game 1 on Monday.
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Let’s get to it.
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We’re down to the final four in the MLB playoffs. (Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)
ALCS: No. 2 Seattle Mariners vs. No. 1 Toronto Blue Jays
How they got here
Mariners: Having won the AL West for the first time since 2001, the Mariners secured a bye to the ALDS that enabled them to rest up and prepare for what turned out to be a grueling, five-game brawl with the Detroit Tigers that concluded in epic fashion with a 15-inning, walk-off victory Friday in Game 5. Outlasting Detroit under those circumstances was a monumental accomplishment for a franchise seeking its first World Series appearance, and the road isn’t getting any easier from here, especially with such a quick turnaround before the Mariners jet cross-continent to face Toronto in Game 1 on Sunday.
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Blue Jays: The Blue Jays, who earned the AL’s top seed and home-field advantage in the ALDS, swiftly dispatched a Yankees team that played three wild-card games against Boston before heading north of the border. If you were unconvinced about Toronto’s superiority over New York in the regular season, the Blue Jays resoundingly demonstrated in the ALDS that they’re indeed the class of the AL East, if not the definitive team to beat in the American League.
In this ALCS, Toronto will once again be starting fresh relative to their opponents, as the Game 1 hosts enjoyed multiple days off between rounds. Toronto won the season series against Seattle 4-2, but it’s worth noting they played quite early: The Blue Jays lost two of three at home in April and then swept the Mariners at T-Mobile Park in early May. We’ll see to what degree those regular-season matchups inform this October rematch in October.
X-factors
Mariners: Cal Raleigh
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It’s not only that the Mariners’ star catcher just had one of the greatest individual regular seasons of all time and then led his team with eight hits in the ALDS. Raleigh also historically rakes against Toronto. “The Big Dumper” has hit .274/.361/.655 in 97 regular-season plate appearances vs. the Blue Jays, with an astonishing 10 home runs, and that doesn’t include his 4-for-8 showing with a homer in Seattle’s two-game sweep of Toronto in the 2022 AL wild-card round. Raleigh has been giving the Blue Jays fits since long before he became an MVP candidate, and he has the chance to continue that trend in their highest-profile encounter yet.
Blue Jays: Shane Bieber
While veteran Kevin Gausman and rookie Trey Yesavage shined against New York, Bieber turned in by far his shortest outing as a Blue Jay in Toronto’s lone loss in the ALDS. It was a disappointing blip for a pitcher who was acquired at the deadline explicitly for moments and situations such as this. Still, the opportunity remains for him to make good on those expectations against Seattle. If the Blue Jays can get a longer and more effective outing (or two) from Bieber facing this stout Mariners lineup, it’ll make it much easier for them to avoid overtaxing their bullpen, which they came dangerously close to doing against New York.
How they win
Mariners: The Mariners must defend home field in the middle games of this series and continue to demonstrate elite run prevention at T-Mobile Park with whatever combination of hurlers Dan Wilson throws out there in those contests. Once properly rested from their Game 5 marathon, the Mariners could quickly regain a collective edge on the mound for the remainder of this series. If they can make the most of that advantage, and if their ability to rake on the road shines through enough to snag a win in Game 1 or 2 or in a pivotal Game 6 or 7, the Mariners should have enough to slow down a Blue Jays team that is undeniably flying high.
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Blue Jays: The Blue Jays jumped to a commanding lead last round thanks in large part to a massive pitching advantage in Game 1, with a fresh Kevin Gausman facing New York’s No. 4 starter, Luis Gil. The same dynamic is in play in the ALCS, with Seattle handing the ball to Bryce Miller opposite Gausman on Sunday, and it’s possible that Seattle’s use of virtually its entire pitching staff in Game 5 vs. Detroit could have a cascading effect that also impacts Game 2 in terms of pitcher availability and effectiveness. But regardless of any advantages entering the series, the Blue Jays can win by continuing to excel at what they do best: Put the ball in play, get slugging from their stars, play great defense and mix and match on the mound. This club didn’t get the top seed by accident; the recipe is working here, and seeing that sustain en route to a World Series appearance would hardly be a surprise.
How they lose
Mariners: Beyond the challenges they might face on the mound after what they needed to do to get past Detroit, it’s worth pointing out that the Mariners’ offense was far from fully functioning in the ALDS, which might warrant some concern as they advance to face a Blue Jays team that is far more capable of scoring runs. Raleigh, Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco have been steadily productive, but Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez combined to strike out 26 times against Detroit. If those whiff-heavy tendencies continue against the Blue Jays, this offense might not have enough firepower to keep up with Toronto’s more balanced attack.
Blue Jays: On the flip side, there’s a realistic scenario in which Seattle’s offense heats up in a more substantial way against a Blue Jays team that entered October with the highest team ERA in the postseason field and a proclivity to allow the long ball, a Mariners specialty. And if Toronto’s big righty mashers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, are neutralized enough against Seattle’s army of tough right-handers, the Blue Jays might lack the slug to keep pace with a Mariners lineup featuring an array of hitters who can change the game with one swing. That said, it’s much more likely that a Toronto downfall would involve a breakdown on the mound, something that cropped up as a weakness at multiple points in the regular season.
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Series prediction: Mariners in 7
Toronto might have the edge in the early portion of this series, but over the course of seven games, Seattle’s pitching will emerge supreme, while the Blue Jays’ run prevention will regress just enough against the Mariners’ offense to lose a game or two at home. However this series unfolds, it should be an absolute treat to watch. — Shusterman
It’s time to battle for the pennants. Which teams will emerge victorious from the championship series and advance to the Fall Classic? (Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)
NLCS: No. 3 L.A. Dodgers vs. No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers
How they got here
Dodgers: By shifting into gear. Entering the season, this Dodgers team was billed as a generational juggernaut, the best money could buy. Instead, L.A. spent six months on relative cruise control, looking like a World Series favorite at times and an overpaid, uninterested colossus at others. As such, they finished with MLB’s fifth-best record and missed out on a first-round bye.
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But when the games began to matter, the defending champs flipped the switch. They thoroughly battered the Reds in the wild-card round before topping the Phillies in four games in a hard-fought NLDS, throughout which the Dodgers showcased as the superior club. Los Angeles’ starting rotation, a unit that experienced a cavalcade of injuries in the regular season, has been a particular difference-maker in October, with a 2.02 ERA and one homer allowed across 35 2/3 innings.
Brewers: The Brewers proved they had the pitching and the offense to get past their division rivals, defeating the Cubs in Game 5 of the NLDS to win their first postseason series since 2018. And after they weren’t able to defeat the Mets in Game 3 of the wild-card round last year, Milwaukee seems to have learned from that experience, rallying to survive the Cubs’ comeback from down 0-2 that flipped the NLDS. Milwaukee now faces a much bigger challenge, as they will host the Dodgers in the NLCS in a rematch of the 2018 championship series in which L.A. defeated the Brewers in seven games.
X-factors
Dodgers: The correct answer is Los Angeles’ exhausted, undermanned bullpen, but that’s boring, so I’m going with Shohei Ohtani, the hitter.
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The two-way unicorn’s first playoff pitching start was a massive success, a watershed moment for the game’s most singular character. But small-sample caveats aside, Ohtani has been straight-up bad as a hitter through the first six games of this postseason, going 4-for-27 with three walks. He cranked two homers in the wild-card round against an overmatched Cincinnati staff but finished the NLDS just 1-for-18 with no extra-base hits. It feels preposterous to critique Ohtani after all he has accomplished, but that .720 career playoff OPS is well below his supersonic standards.
It’s also worth mentioning the uncomfortable reality that Ohtani has been a definitively worse hitter when he pitches. During his 14 starts this season, the 31-year-old has a .207/.313/.517 slash line with an .831 OPS in 67 plate appearances. Those numbers get even worse — .160/.263/.400 with a .663 OPS — when you remove Ohtani’s first two outings, both of which were only one inning.
Brewers: Jackson Chourio
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The Brewers need someone in their lineup to emerge as a hero if they hope to make it to their first World Series since 1982. And who better than their 21-year-old star, who has become very comfortable in big moments during his short time in the big leagues? The Brewers’ left fielder is a game-changer at the top of Pat Murphy’s lineup and usually finds himself in moments when the Brewers need him to come through. With his hamstring injury seemingly behind him, Chourio’s blend of speed and power is exactly what Milwaukee’s offense needs to upset the Dodgers.
How they win
Dodgers: By leaning on their starting rotation. The quartet of Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow is simply superior to whatever the Brewers can roll out there. Quality advantage aside, those guys do need to give the Dodgers length so L.A.’s shallow bullpen doesn’t get exposed in a longer series. That’s because even with the ascension of starter-turned-reliever Roki Sasaki, who tossed three perfect innings in Game 4 against the Phillies, Los Angeles has some big questions in the ‘pen. Worrisome as that is, it won’t matter too much if the Dodgers’ starters can shut down the Brew Crew through six innings.
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Brewers: Chaos, chaos, chaos. The Brewers have gotten to the NLCS by doing things their way, so why stop now? Milwaukee thrives when drawing walks, stealing bases, taking extra bases and hitting the occasional home run. But don’t be mistaken: The Brewers know how to score. They ranked third in MLB in runs during the regular season, and in the postseason, in which teams that experience power outages struggle, the Brew Crew don’t rely on power to succeed. It’s worth noting that Milwaukee did not swipe a base until Game 5 of the NLDS against the Cubs. In order to win this series against an L.A. team that can score in bunches, the Brewers will have to put up some crooked numbers, even if they don’t come via the long ball.
How they lose
Dodgers: The bullpen has gotten a lot of flak recently, but the defending champs were a bounce or two away from having to fly back to Philly for NLDS Game 5 primarily because their lineup didn’t show. Dodgers hitters had a collective .557 OPS in four games against the Phillies, the lowest mark of any team in the division series. They managed just six extra-base hits and clubbed only two home runs. The star trio of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman went a combined 8-for-50 with no extra-base hits. That level of futility can’t happen if the Dodgers want to punch a return ticket to the Fall Classic.
Brewers: While it’s easy to look at the Dodgers’ lineup as a reason for Milwaukee to be concerned, the biggest talent gap comes in the rotation. In a short series against the Cubs, the Brewers were able to hide some of their deficiencies on the mound, giving ace Freddy Peralta two starts and going to a bullpen game for their Game 5 win. In the next round, you can be sure Peralta will get two starts, but after that, there are tough questions with no clear answers. In a best-of-seven series, Milwaukee just doesn’t have the rotational depth to stack up with L.A.
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Series prediction: Dodgers in 5
The Dodgers are the more rested team, they have better and deeper starting pitching, and they seem to be rediscovering their collective rhythm at just the right time. So long as their three MVPs in Ohtani, Betts and Freeman can get back to mashing baseballs and roughing up opposing pitchers, the defending champs should find themselves back in the World Series with relative ease. — Mintz & Dorsey
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