The theme of our final regular-season free-agency update? Status quo.
Frankly, not much has happened since the trade deadline. The good players have continued to play well. A few characters have tumbled from underperformance or skyrocketed up from anonymity, but for the most part, August solidified what we already thought we knew.
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As a reminder: This is a weak class. It’s increasingly unlikely that a single position player will surpass the $100 million threshold, something that hasn’t happened in more than a decade. The uncertainty of the lockout will have an impact as the sport prepares to go on a transactional hiatus starting Dec. 1.
We’ll be back with free-agency coverage before then, with our comprehensive top 50 free agents list dropping in October.
Notes: Whenever you see a number, a slash and another number, that’s a reference to contract years and total earnings. For instance, the shorthand for Bryce Harper’s 11-year, $330 million deal would be “11/330.” Ages listed below are for the 2027 season.
Previous rankings: May edition | June edition | August edition
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It’s been business as usual for the two-time Cy Young since he joined L.A. before the trade deadline. Skubal has a 2.93 ERA in seven Dodger starts with more than a strikeout per inning. He has been walking more hitters than normal, but everything else, from his zone rates to his chase rates to his pitch rates, is in line with career norms.
Most importantly, Skubal has been healthy. That early-season “Skubal Scope” NanoNeedle surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow feels definitively behind him — as much as something like that can be behind someone whose livelihood relies on his elbow.
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The only question now is how high the bidding will go when Skubal finally hits the market. For players of this caliber, players whose salaries crest into the hundreds of millions, owners are intimately involved in the wooing and signing process. That means a dominant October on the big stage could push Skubal’s final number higher. On the flip side, an abbreviated or underwhelming postseason showing might keep things in the more reasonable, yet still record-breaking, realm.
More status quo. Suzuki has rebounded after a disastrous May. Only four National Leaguers have posted a higher OPS since June 1: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Rafael Devers, Jake Bauers and Shohei Ohtani. And Suzuki’s defensive value continues to give him the edge over Arozarena. Advanced metrics have him ranked as one of the best corner outfielders in the sport.
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The opposite is true for Arozarena. But while the electrifying Cuban-born Mexican is a negative in the grass, he can expect a nice payday thanks to what has been a career year at the plate. Arozarena is rocking full-season career highs in on-base percentage, OPS and the sophisticated, all-encompassing offensive metric of your choice. Collecting 20 steals and 20 homers in six consecutive seasons is no small feat, either. A return to Seattle feels unlikely, but Arozarena should expect a sturdy market.
We stayed high on Peralta despite his woeful four-month stint in Queens, and that faith is finally starting to pay off. His overall numbers with Tampa Bay don’t look much improved on the surface, but Peralta appears to have turned a corner. Over his past three starts, the likable Dominican has allowed just two runs and issued one walk across 18 innings of work. That uptick in control is notable for a pitcher who, even during his best years in Milwaukee, ran a higher-than-you’d-like walk rate.
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Peralta is also throwing far more changeups since joining the Rays, an unsurprising trend considering that Tampa Bay is on pace to shatter the modern-era record for changeup usage by a single team. Crucially, Tampa also decided to have Peralta work exclusively from the stretch, something he did as a Brewer but scuttled during his Mets tenure. With the Rays tracking toward a division title and the AL’s best record, expect Peralta to get the ball in Game 2 of the ALDS. If he shines in October, it could push him back up to the No. 2 spot on this list.
Tarik Skubal remains No. 1 in an underwhelming free-agent class.
(Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
5. Michael King (opt-out), Padres SP, 32 (12)
Despite making just 15 starts in 2025, King secured a three-year, $75 million deal from the Padres because his stuff was too good to ignore. That makes what has transpired this season particularly bizarre. King has remained impressively healthy, on track to post career highs in both starts and innings pitched. He has also been quite effective, pitching to a 3.00 ERA across 29 outings. But while the surface-level results are encouraging, he’s sporting a career-high walk rate and a career-low strikeout rate, likely results of a decline in the zone rate of his heater.
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Some teams might be scared off by the underlying stuff, and there’s a chance King, who has a $28 million option for next season, might not want to test the open market. Considering all the uncertainty swirling around this offseason, there are worse choices than to make nearly $30 million and live in San Diego.
We will continue grouping these second basemen together until morale improves. As has been the case all season, one could rank and re-rank these four in myriad ways. MLB teams certainly are.
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Arraez’s contributions to PhilliesLand have been more about the vibe than the actual offensive production. The contact-happy hitter’s unique style is always going to make him more susceptible to the shifting, ever-volatile BABIP gods, but it’s impossible to say he has been tearing the cover off the ball.
Chisholm just hit the IL due to a thumb problem, adding yet another pock on what has already been a disappointing season. Given his age, ceiling and raw ability, Jazz had the highest financial ceiling of any bat in this free-agent class. His slick glove at the keystone and immense baserunning value create a high floor, but it’s tough to see a club dropping nine figures on someone with a league-average OPS+.
Lowe, unexpectedly, has the best defensive numbers of this group, but recently he has been striking out more than an offputting dude at a speed dating event. Talk about a red flag. Lowe still offers a rare combination of long-ball juice and defensive prowess, but the age and swing-and-miss tendencies dampen his market somewhat. There will also be teams skeptical that his unforeseen defensive rejuvenation will stick.
Since returning from the IL on July 20, Torres has been … perfectly fine. Capable but far from a difference-maker. That’s a problem, given his defensive shortcomings. The Tigers’ decision to extend a qualifying offer to Torres last winter looks curious in retrospect, while his acceptance of the offer looks genius. It’s unlikely that he’ll surpass $20 million in AAV this go-around.
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Minnesota’s decision to hang on to Jeffers at the deadline felt admirable at the time but now looks foolish, with October baseball likely passing the Twins by once again. Jeffers, had he been dealt, might’ve been the best hitter moved this summer. He’s having a career year, with highs in pretty much every rate-based stat. There are real questions about his defense, and some teams won’t want to hand an every-day job to someone this poor at controlling the running game. Jeffers best fits as a part-time DH who catches 70 or so games a year, but the bat has been real enough to make that type of arrangement work.
Rogers hasn’t been nearly as dominant as that silly-good, 18-start, 1.81-ERA run at the end of last season. Still, there’s a lot to like here. All the advanced data think Rogers is better than that 4.15 ERA. He doesn’t walk guys, gets tons of chase and, recently at least, stays off the IL. Lefties and 29-year-olds with those characteristics don’t grow on trees, which could secure Rogers a deal larger than casual fans might expect.
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Predictably, Holmes’ high-contact, groundball-heavy style has been a perfect match for Chicago’s best-in-show defense. Things should only get even better when shortstop Dansby Swanson and his elite glove get off the IL. While it’s probably fair to ask whether Holmes, who missed most of the summer after fracturing his leg on a comebacker, could thrive like this in a different environment, his ability to miss barrels and get grounders is sticky enough for him to slot into the middle of most rotations.
Gray will get Cy Young votes, particularly from old-school voters excited to drool over his 17-4 record. The peripheral numbers aren’t as bullish, even if the 36-year-old vet firmly falls into the “knows how to get outs” category. Those underlying yellow flags and Gray’s advanced age will limit the length of a free-agent deal, but the undersized righty has performed well enough to earn a diet version of the Max Scherzer/Justin Verlander late-career, high-AAV deals.
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14. Ian Happ, Cubs OF, 32 (10)
15. Jake Bauers, Brewers 1B, 31 (20)
It has been a down year of sorts for Happ, who has been playing through nicks and knocks for a while now. He’s been so consistent for so long that it’s odd to see the offensive numbers take a dip. Even still, the longtime Cub remains a valuable every-day player because he walks a ton and plays great defense. That’s why he has been worth 2.3 fWAR despite a .213 batting average.
Bauers is the opposite of Happ. It has been a gradual rise for the former seventh-round pick from up-down guy to bench bat to platoon player to focal point of the best team’s lineup. Bauers currently owns an .885 OPS, the seventh-highest mark among qualified hitters. That’s absurd! Who saw that coming?! The defensive limitations are real; Bauers is mediocre, at best, at first. But man, everything from bat-speed numbers to chase rates to barrel percentages says Bauers’ breakout is real. What that translates to in dollar figures is anyone’s guess.
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16. Adrian Morejon, Padres RP, 28 (15)
17. David Bednar, Yankees RP, 32 (16)
Simply put: These are two of the best relievers in the sport.
Morejon, understandably, gets overshadowed by the flamethrowing alien species named Mason Miller who also happens to wear brown and gold. But don’t overlook the 27-year-old Cuban, whose dastardly four-pitch mix makes him a horrifying proposition late in ballgames. Relievers are notoriously unreliable year to year, but Morejon’s young age, particularly for a reliever, will make him a hot commodity this winter.
Bednar has more miles under his belt and less overpowering stuff, but he has the very real added bonus of having proven himself capable of handling the Yankees’ closer job, a role that comes with its own unique mountain of pressure.
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None of this trio is having fun right now. Varsho went from Toronto to Houston at the deadline, a flop of a swap thus far. The fist-shaped center fielder is 23-for-123 as an Astro, with just nine extra-base hits.
But at least Varsho is playing, which can’t be said for Grisham. The mustachioed Yankee strained his right hamstring on Sept. 5 and might not be available for the remainder of the regular season. That could be a blessing in disguise, as Grisham had been underwhelming on both sides of the ball for some time. The biggest concern moving forward is his defense. Unless Grisham gains a step somehow, he’s not a viable center fielder anymore. That puts more pressure on a streaky bat that probably isn’t good enough to carry the day in a corner.
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Ward has been the worst of the three and perhaps the single worst deadline performer in the sport. The 32-year-old has not homered in 89 plate appearances as a Mariner and has just one extra-base hit. His slugging percentage in Seattle is a crisp .141. Unless he turns the ship around soon, Ward might need to settle for a one-year pact.
It has been a weird season for Mize, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick. He was magnificent for much of the summer (2.36 ERA across 14 starts between April 11 and July 25) despite three IL stints. Then he went to San Diego at the deadline, where he has posted an awful 6.34 ERA across seven starts. As a Padre, Mize’s strikeout rate has collapsed, and his home run rate has exploded to unsustainable levels. Lefties, in particular, have torched Mize of late, and his slider has gotten obliterated. Both the Padres and Mize’s financial advisor would love it if he could recapture that early-season magic.
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Soroka was having a breakout season before a glute strain landed him on the IL in mid-June. He returned in early August but went back on the shelf for a fortnight due to right arm inflammation. He came back Sept. 9 and looked just OK. Considering that injuries have derailed Soroka’s career multiple times, it’s fair to worry about how his most recent ailments might limit him moving forward. Still, he displayed a new and improved version of himself this season, which is always something teams like to see before investing real cash.
Stephenson, a Red since 2020, expected to be playing elsewhere by now. He was extremely emotional in his postgame interview the day before the deadline. On the day itself, he drove around Cincinnati with his wife to visit all their favorite spots one last time. But when the dust settled, Stephenson remained a Red. That qualified as odd, considering he has been a perfectly capable starting catcher for a while now. He’s not exceedingly dynamic on either side of the ball, but there are so few backstops with above-average sticks that Stephenson should secure a multiyear deal this winter. One note: His framing numbers, never great, have been abysmal this year, which could be a sticking point for some clubs.
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24. Foster Griffin, Guardians SP, 31 (29)
25. Robbie Ray, Padres SP, 35 (26)
Both southpaws have been just alright with their new clubs, yet both are in line to start a postseason game in a few weeks — that is, if the Padres and Guardians get in.
Griffin is the more compelling free-agent case, despite a 91.5 mph average fastball velocity. That’s because heat be damned, Griffin has hoovered up outs since coming over from Japan. His seven-pitch mix works, and maybe a team thinks a few mechanical tweaks could conjure a tad more velocity. Most importantly, he has stayed healthy all season.
In general, Ray has been better than expected, particularly against righties, thanks to a rejuvenated changeup. Contenders might look at his horrendous K/BB rate, which ranks second-worst among qualified hurlers, and say thanks, but no thanks. But a fringe contender probably scoops Ray up as an innings-eater and deals him at the deadline next year.
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The next 25
26. Alec Bohm, Phillies IF, 30 (38)
27. Kevin Gausman, Cubs SP, 36 (25)
28. Shota Imanaga, Cubs SP, 33 (27)
29. Raisel Iglesias, Braves RP, 37 (28)
30. Nick Martinez, Rays SP, 36 (30)
31. Matthew Boyd, Cubs SP, 36 (31)
32. Joc Pederson, Rangers DH, 35 (45)
33. George Springer, Blue Jays DH, 37 (32)
34. Bryan Abreu, Astros RP, 30, (NR)
35. Alex Vesia, Dodgers RP, 31, (NR)
36. Ryan Helsley, Orioles RP, 32 (33)
37. Carson Kelly, Cubs C, 32 (35)
38. Kris Bubic, Dodgers SP, 29 (36)
39. Paul Goldschmidt, Yankees 1B, 39 (41)
40. J.P. Crawford, Mariners IF, 32 (42)
41. Luis Robert Jr. (opt-out), Mets CF, 29 (37)
42. Tyrone Taylor, Cubs OF, 33 (50)
43. Edmundo Sosa, Phillies IF, 31 (NR)
44. Mauricio Dubon, Braves SS, 32 (43)
45. Dustin May, Brewers SP, 29 (21)
46. Lane Thomas, Braves OF, 31 (46)
47. Jason Adam, Padres RP, 35 (44)
48. Jack Flaherty, Tigers SP, 31 (47)
49. Shane Bieber, Blue Jays SP, 32 (40)
50. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks SP, 31 (48)
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