With just over one week remaining in the 2025 MLB regular season, the AL MVP race between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh is shaping up to be one of the closest votes in recent history.
In a poll of 14 current front office executives conducted by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Raleigh received one more vote than Judge for the award (7-6), with one respondent sitting in the middle by declaring it a tie.
One executive for an AL team who voted for Raleigh said the positional value made the difference since Judge has slowed down after his torrid start to the season.
The primary arguments in favor of Raleigh had to do with his positional value as a catcher, even though most acknowledged Judge is the superior offensive player.
“Had Judge continued the Bonds-like start he got off to, I might think differently,” the AL executive said. “But as is, I’d go with the all-around monster year from the guy playing the most demanding position on the field.”
Judge has also been hurt because the elbow injury he suffered earlier in the season has primarily limited him to a DH role since returning from the IL on Aug. 5. He has played the outfield in three of the last four games.
There’s also a bubbling narrative working in favor of Raleigh. He has already set MLB records for most homers in a season by a player in games as a catcher (45) and by a switch-hitter (56).
This weekend could be a huge determining factor in the MVP race because the Mariners play a three-game series against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Those two teams are tied for first place in the AL West, with Seattle trying to win its first division title since 2001.
Even though the Yankees (86-67) have a better record than the Mariners (84-69), there’s been a feeling around the Bronx that this team is underachieving because they have spent more than two months looking up at the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East, even though they have won 24 of their last 35 games entering Friday.
It’s also not totally accurate to say Judge has slowed down since returning. He’s hitting .288/.464/.576 in 40 games since Aug. 5. By comparison, Raleigh’s season slash line is .247/.359/.585.
The defensive value for Raleigh certainly closes the gap. He ranks eighth among all players in FanGraphs’ defensive value metric. His pitch framing ranks in the 87th percentile among all catchers.
Judge still maintains an advantage in fWAR at 9.0 to Raleigh’s 8.4, but that’s not so significant a margin to make him clearly superior.
The next nine days are going to be huge in deciding the AL MVP. If the Mariners win the AL West and Raleigh gets to 60 homers playing primarily as a catcher, the narrative might be too hard to ignore.
If nothing else, this at least gives fans and voters an award to debate for the first time in a long time. The MVP winner in both the AL and NL has been a unanimous vote in each of the previous two years.
The last time the top two vote-getters received at least 10 first-place votes was in 2019 when it happened in both leagues. Mike Trout beat out Alex Bregman in first-place votes (17 to 13) and total points (355 to 325) to win his third AL MVP award. Cody Bellinger (19 first-place votes, 362 total points) finished ahead of Christian Yelich (10 first-place votes, 317 total points) in the NL.
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