The 2026 NFL Draft is just over a month away, and plenty will change ahead of its first day on April 24.
However, with the largest portion of 2026 NFL free agency now in the books, mock draft analysts have a clearer picture of how the draft’s first round will play out. That has led many industry pillars to release their latest projections, including long-time ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.
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Kiper’s latest mock indicates a consensus may be forming atop the 2026 NFL Draft. He once again switched up who the New York Jets were taking with the No. 2 overall selection and made an increasingly popular change to the Tennessee Titans’ pick at No. 4.
There weren’t any major surprises in Kiper’s mock, but he did have a few notable players coming off the board later than the consensus.
Here are some takeaways from Kiper’s mock draft, as NFL fans and analysts assess the league landscape in the wake of free agency.
Takeaways from Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest 2026 NFL mock draft
Click here to read Kiper’s full mock draft and here to see it in video form.
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Will David Bailey go ahead of Arvell Reese?
The 2026 NFL Draft starts with the Jets at No. 2, as the Las Vegas Raiders will almost certainly choose Fernando Mendoza with the draft’s top selection.
New York is widely expected to take a defensive player with the second pick. It’s just a matter of who they prefer.
Kiper acknowledged he had the Jets going with Reese in his previous mock draft but made the switch to Bailey for this one. He believes New York needs “an instant impact edge rusher” and noted Bailey was “explosive and productive” during his lone season at Texas Tech, generating an FBS-best 14.5 sacks and a 20.3% pressure rate.
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Kiper’s choice aligns with Bailey’s momentum after being consistently productive throughout his career at Stanford and Texas Tech. USA TODAY Sports’ latest mock draft also has the Jets spending the second overall selection on Bailey.
Jets go QB in Round 1, select Ty Simpson
Simpson’s landing spot will be one of the hottest topics of the lead-up to the 2026 NFL Draft. The Alabama product is the clear-cut No. 2 quarterback in this year’s draft class after performing well in the pre-draft process and showing excellent accuracy, ball placement and pocket presence during his lone season as a starter for the Crimson Tide.
Kiper has Simpson landing with the Jets at the 16th overall pick. His reasoning? New York “has to take some swings” to find its franchise quarterback and Simpson would be ideally situated to learn and develop behind 35-year-old veteran Geno Smith as he acclimates himself to the NFL.
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Targeting Simpson at 16 would be sensible. It would allow the Jets to spend the No. 2 pick on a blue-chip defender, like Bailey, and still add a quarterback who would give Aaron Glenn and Frank Reich a high-potential option at the position.
Such a strategy would also mirror what the Jets’ cross-town rivals, the New York Giants, did in the 2025 NFL Draft – spending the No. 3 overall pick on Abdul Carter before trading into the back end of the first round to land Jaxson Dart.
Titans a fit for Jeremiyah Love?
Kiper has the Titans selecting Love with the fourth overall pick. He noted the 20-year-old would be “an immediate upgrade” over Tennessee’s current starter at the position, Tony Pollard, and would fit the goal the Titans’ new brain trust is trying to accomplish ahead of the 2026 NFL season.
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“Tennessee is committed to boosting the offense around second-year quarterback Cam Ward, and Love would take the run game to another level while also serving as a dynamic pass catcher,” Kiper wrote.
Kiper has typically advocated against spending first-round picks on quarterbacks throughout his career as an analyst. Mocking Love at No. 4 overall – which would make him the highest-drafted prospect at the position since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 overall in 2018 – just shows the rarity of the Notre Dame product’s talent.
Monroe Freeling gaining steam as OT1
Freeling has been a steady riser throughout the draft process and performed well at the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine. As a result, many draft analysts have projected the Georgia product to emerge as the draft’s No. 1 overall tackle prospect.
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That includes Kiper, who noted he sees “franchise left tackle traits” when watching Freeling’s tape and mocked him No. 6 overall to the Cleveland Browns.
It’s hard to argue with Kiper’s logic. The Browns have a big need at left tackle, and Freeling profiles as the best long-term fit at that position among the draft’s top offensive linemen. Francis Mauigoa is more of a right tackle prospect while concerns about Spencer Fano’s arm length could force him to play inside at the NFL level.
How Jaylen Waddle trade impacts draft
The Miami Dolphins traded Waddle to the Denver Broncos on March 17 for a package including the 30th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
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How did that change Kiper’s mock? Originally, he had Mauigoa mocked to the Dolphins at 11. Following the trade, he opted to slot Jordan Tyson in with the 11th pick to give Miami a potential No. 1 receiver.
And with the 30th pick, the Dolphins ended up taking Auburn’s Keldric Faulk to help replace Bradley Chubb, who was released early in the offseason.
The Dolphins have needs everywhere, but seeing them target players at the positions from which they just made cuts was hardly a surprise.
NATE DAVIS: Winners and losers of Jaylen Waddle trade from Dolphins to Broncos
Makai Lemon slides, just four WRs go in Round 1
After Tyson came off the board, there was a long gap between receivers coming off the board. Just four were taken in the first 32 picks of Kiper’s mock, and Lemon lasted until the 24th overall selection, which belongs to the Browns.
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Kiper noted he is a “huge fan of Lemon” and that he didn’t drop him for any particular reason.
“The board just sort of fell this way in this mock draft,” Kiper wrote.
Nonetheless, Kiper’s placement of Lemon highlights the 5-11 receiver’s wide draft range. He could go in the first half of the first round – which USA TODAY Sports’ latest mock draft has happening – or he could end up going toward the back half of the first 32 picks if NFL teams are concerned about his size for the next level.
If Lemon does slide, that could have a ripple effect on other potential first-round receivers. Denzel Boston was notably not included in Kiper’s latest mock while KC Concepcion barely snuck into the end of Round 1, going to the New England Patriots at 31 overall.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft: Takeaways from ESPN analyst’s latest mock
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