Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia predictions: Will Garcia finally become a world champion?

Ryan Garcia is one of the biggest stars in boxing — and still, he has yet to win a world title.

In an era of the sport that crowns Lewis Crocker, Mario Barrios and Rolando “Rolly” Romero as welterweight world champions, the opportunity has never been greater for Garcia to finally claim one of the sport’s ultimate prizes. On Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Garcia challenges WBC welterweight champion Barrios with the chance to change the narrative of his career.

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Barrios enters the fight on the back of successive draws with Abel Ramos and a 47-year-old Manny Pacquiao — results that have done little to cement his authority as champion. If Garcia is ever going to win a world title, this has to be the moment. The question now is whether he can seize it — and in doing so, legitimize himself not just as one of boxing’s biggest attractions, but also as one of its top fighters.

WBC welterweight title: Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia

After failing a drug test for the banned substance ostarine following his no-contest with Devin Haney in April 2024, Garcia was banned from the sport for a year. He returned to challenge Romero for the WBA (regular) welterweight title this past May at Times Square, losing a decision in an easily forgettable fight.

Garcia claimed to have sustained a hand injury going into the Romero bout and required surgery afterward, keeping him out of the ring for another nine months, meaning he has registered just one bout in the past 22 months. Now, coming off a defeat and a drug ban, Garcia somehow walks into another world title shot.

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Barrios, the former interim champion, was upgraded to full WBC champion in 2024 and has fought twice since, drawing with Ramos in November of that year and Pacquiao this past July. Fun fact: Neither man involved this weekend has had their hand raised in victory in almost two years — and this is a world title fight.

Garcia’s fight with Romero was historically dreadful, with the pair recording the third-lowest combined punch output (490 punches) for a 12-round fight in CompuBox’s 40-year history. Although Garcia’s fight with Haney was a lot more dramatic, it also set the record for the third-fewest punches thrown in a 12-round fight (499 punches) at the time it took place.

Garcia-Barrios will almost certainly be another low-output encounter. Both are tall welterweights who are unlikely to close the distance with regularity in this matchup, nor will they force the pace — that isn’t what Garcia does, and Barrio will be wary of his foe’s power and speed. I expect to see both men utilizing their jabs in this matchup and for it to be fought at long range. Both men can also be hit and hurt, although it is unknown how Garcia’s power will carry to 147 pounds. Barrios is not a puncher.

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Garcia has been hurt in the body before in fights, as is common for tall fighters with long torsos, most noticeably in a seventh-round knockout defeat at the hands of Gervonta “Tank” Davis in April 2023. Barrios also fought Davis in 2021 and was taken out in the 11th round of their 140-pound title bout.

Barrios’ body work and his jab will be his keys to victory. Barrios is slow, which gives Garcia a significant advantage in hand speed. Garcia needs to counter Barrios and land his money punch, which is his lightning-quick left hook.

Barrios is unlikely to just walk into Garcia’s power shots, though, and so Garcia will need to set them up behind feints and jabs — something he was unable to do against Romero. Garcia didn’t use his right hand much at all in the Romero fight. The right hand will be key against Barrios because it can help set up the left hook after it.

But the most important factor in this fight: What version of the unpredictable Garcia is going to show up? At times, he has looked unfocused and caught between styles. Garcia is training with his father, Henry Garcia, for Saturday’s fight. The elder Garcia was Ryan’s first trainer and could be the man to provide him with the stability and mental comfort he requires.

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If Garcia is focused, disciplined and comes with a game plan, he should get the job done against the unimpressive Barrios.

Garcia has spent years as one of boxing’s biggest names without the résumé to match. On Saturday night, against one of the weakest champions in the sport, he finally has no excuses left.

Pick: Garcia

IBF super lightweight title: Richardson Hitchins vs. Oscar Duarte

Richardson Hitchins makes the second defense of his IBF super lightweight title against highly rated contender Oscar Duarte in the night’s chief support.

The unbeaten Hitchins outboxed Liam Paro in December 2024 to capture the belt and made a successful defense this past June against another Australian, George Kambosos.

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Duarte edged Kenneth Sims Jr. in a Fight of the Year candidate in an August WBA title eliminator. The Mexican has won four straight fights since being knocked out by Garcia in December 2023.

Hitchins vs. Duarte features one of boxing’s most common style matchups — pure boxer vs. pressure fighter. While Hitchins is a tremendous long-range boxer and mover, he will be tested fiercely by Duarte’s pressure, volume and body-punching.

Duarte can look to Hitchins’ IBF final eliminator with Gustavo Lemos in April 2024 for inspiration. Hitchins struggled with Lemos’ front-foot aggression and ability to close the space. Ultimately, Hitchins eked out a razor-close decision, but many were left unconvinced. The fight gave weight to the argument Hitchins struggles with competent pressure fighters — and it’s a debate Duarte will put to bed one way or another Saturday night.

Lemos had faster feet than Duarte and was able to overwhelm Hitchins with volume at times. Duarte, on the other hand, focuses more on power rather than volume. He is muscle-bound and very strong on the inside. Duarte, however, has slow feet and could struggle to close the gap on the longer Hitchins.

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One of the most important factors in this fight is the training teams. Duarte has one of the world’s best trainers, Robert Garcia, in his corner. Garcia only recently guided Raymond Muratalla to an upset win over Andy Cruz and had a terrific November 2025, with Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez adding another world title to his collection and Vergil Ortiz Jr. making easy work of Erickson Lubin.

Hitchins’ corner, on the other hand, has been more chaotic: A mix of voices, Shakur Stevenson on the phone giving advice, and a lack of clear, tangible instructions in contests where adjustments are necessary — namely, the Lemos bout.

Both men will struggle with the IBF’s 10-pound rehydration clause, as both are considered big for the weight class. Hitchis, in particular, has publicly declared that his time 140 pounds is limited and he plans to go up to welterweight. To his advantage, he has experienced the second-day weigh-in for his past three fights, while Duarte has never had to restrict his rehydration.

When Duarte makes the 140-pound limit on the day before the fight, he will then have to be careful about how much food and fluid he can put back into his body. If he wakes up on the morning of the fight above 150 pounds, he may need a trip to the sauna to cut weight less than 12 hours before he is scheduled to step into the ring.

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It’s a very tough fight to call. How Hitchins deals with pressure and the weight could be decisive. But the champion has to have the edge in this one.

Pick: Hitchins

WBA super lightweight title: Gary Antuanne Russell vs. Andy Hiraoka

Saturday’s third world title fight between Gary Antuanne Russell and Andy Hiraoka was almost canceled on fight week.

Japan’s Hiraoka was dealing with a visa issue that was only resolved late Tuesday, so he’ll be in the U.S. for just over 48 hours when he enters the ring. Japan is a 10-plus-hour flight from the U.S. and is 17 hours ahead — Hiraoka has very little time to acclimate to the time zone and shake off the jet lag. He will no doubt be doing so while trying to make championship weight, as well. It’s far from an ideal situation for Hiraoka, who was already heading into the bout as an underdog.

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Russell won a dominant unanimous decision over Jose “Rayo” Valenzuela this past March to capture the WBA super lightweight belt. In the fight before, Russell lost a close split decision to Alberto Puello.

Hiraoka, who has never tasted defeat, challenges for world honors for the first time. Hiraoka is also suffering from inactivity after recording just one bout in the last two years, which was a ninth-round TKO win over Ismael Barroso in September 2024.

Russell, a southpaw volume-puncher with crunching power, was able to pour on the pressure on Valenzuela in the second half of their bout, hurting him on multiple occasions. Russell’s output and stamina will be an issue for anyone in the 140-pound division.

Russell’s lone loss came against the left-handed Puello. Russell struggled to let his hands go. He was beaten to the punch by Puello and couldn’t pin him down consistently. Hiraoka is a tall, sharp southpaw with the footwork and skills to give Russell some of the same problems.

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Hiraoka’s defense will need to be on point to avoid Russell’s volume and power. Puello had success punching in between Russell’s attacks and countering Russell enough to make him hesitant to throw. Even so, the fight between Russell and Puello was very close, and Russell has improved since then. Hiraoka will no doubt attempt to utilize some of the same tactics Puello had success with, but the Japanese fighter is not as compact defensively as Puello, hasn’t fought at the world level before and risks suffering from ring rust due to his prolonged inactivity.

Hiraoka is a very live underdog, but Russell’s experience at the top level, coupled with Hiraoka’s less-than-ideal fight week circumstances, should tip the odds in favor of the champion.

Pick: Russell

Undercard quick picks

• Super lightweight: Frank Martin def. Nahir Albright

• Super middleweight: Bektemir Melikuziev def. Sena Agbeko

• Middleweight: Amari Jones def. Luis Arias

• Heavyweight: Joshua Edwards def. Brandon Colantonio

• Super featherweight: Mohammed Alakel def. David Calabro

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Uncrowned will have full live coverage Saturday night and round-by-round results of the action.