Mariners vs Yankees Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

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The New York Yankees are -138 favorites to break out the brooms when they host the Seattle Mariners in Game 3 of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium.

Max Fried has dominated this current collection of Seattle bats, and my Mariners vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks expect the southpaw’s strong play to lead to a comfortable New York victory on Thursday, Aug 13. 

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Who will win Mariners vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (+152)

I’m laying the run line with the New York Yankees because this is a better pitching matchup than the numbers suggest. 

Max Fried has been outstanding, and the Seattle Mariners offense has been awful outside of Tuesday’s outburst. 

Logan Gilbert can miss bats, but he’s allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three road starts, and that puts pressure on a Seattle bullpen that owns a 6.94 ERA over the last two weeks. He’s also been homer-prone, allowing 19 long balls in 139 1/3 innings, which won’t help him at Yankee Stadium.

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I’m not chasing yesterday’s 10-5 score, either. I trust Fried to control this game and New York to create separation late. 

I’d play -1.5 to +135.

COVERS INTEL: Seattle has a .566 OPS against Fried in 77 at-bats. Tuesday’s five runs don’t change how badly this lineup matches up against the Yankees lefty.

Mariners vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-102)

I’m playing the Under because I don’t think Tuesday’s 10-5 game changes what this matchup is about. 

Seattle has posted a 75 wRC+ over the last two weeks, and the Yankees have been almost as bad at 79. 

Fried gives me the strongest starting-pitching edge in the game, and Seattle’s .566 OPS against him tells me this lineup has struggled to square him up. 

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Gilbert has been better overall than his recent road results suggest, and I’m willing to trust his 3.42 ERA and 0.99 WHIP to keep a struggling Yankees offense from doing big damage. 

I’d play Under 7.5 to -120.

Mariners vs Yankees home run prediction: Ben Rice (+310)

Ben Rice is my favorite home-run look today. He’s up to 32 home runs and has been one of the better power bats in baseball, averaging 92 mph off the bat with a 15.6% barrel rate. 

Gilbert throws his four-seam fastball nearly 40% of the time, and Rice is hitting .290 with a .662 slugging percentage against fastballs this season. 

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That’s the matchup I want. I’d play Rice to +300.

Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record

• ML/RL bets: 11-13, +0.20 units

• Over/Under bets: 11-11, -1.55 units

Mariners vs Yankees weather

It will be a humid day in the Bronx, with 10 mph winds blowing out to right-center field today. 

Mariners vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Mariners +133 | Yankees -138

• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-163) | Yankees -1.5 (+156)

• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-100) | Under 7.5 (-104)

Mariners vs Yankees trend

The Under is 8-0 in the Yankees’ last eight games when their opponent allowed five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees.

How to watch Mariners vs Yankees and game info

Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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