Everybody loves an upset in the first couple days of the NCAA Tournament. But when Cinderella doesn’t make it to the ball and the big, chalky names move on to subsequent rounds, it frankly makes the ensuing games all the more exciting.
You know who else likes it when the biggest programs advance? NBA scouts.
Sunday’s slate is absolutely loaded with NBA prospects. The headliner is the matchup between 1-seed Duke and 9-seed Baylor, which could feature not just multiple first-round picks, but multiple lottery picks.
It starts of course with Cooper Flagg, widely perceived to be the runaway favorite as the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. Fellow freshmen Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach are likely bound for the green room as well, while sharpshooter Isaiah Evans has been trending up as of late.
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Kyle Boone
Baylor features VJ Edgecombe, who was a top-five prospect in high school basketball a year ago, and continues to track at that level for the upcoming draft. If that comes to fruition, this will be the first NCAA Tournament since 2021 to feature two top-five picks of that summer’s NBA draft going head to head (Jalen Suggs and Gonzaga beat Evan Mobley and USC). Before that, it was Lonzo Ball vs. DeAaron Fox in 2017.
Flagg and Edgecombe have in common haven’t just lived up to the hype in their freshmen season. They’ve exceeded expectations.
Flagg was the top-ranked prospect in the country last year. Coming into Duke he was widely known for his versatility, defense, passing and competitiveness. The questions, though, were his shooting and self-creation, relative to a potential No. 1 pick. He responded by shooting 44% from three and 86% from the free-throw line during ACC play, all while leading the team in scoring and usage.
Edgecombe came into the college ranks known for his explosive athleticism, defense, intangibles and downhill scoring ability. The questions centered around his guard skills — specifically, his shooting. The New York native responded by shooting 39% from the three-point line and 82% from the free-throw line during Big 12 play, all while leading the team in scoring.
And so, for both players, the questions have changed.
- For Flagg, it’s a matter of whether anyone can challenge him as the top overall pick in the draft.
- For Edgecombe, it’s just how high can he climb.
Ironically, the latter of those two questions may impact the former.
Edgecombe climbed up to the fourth spot on my most recent big board and he’s continuing to generate momentum. To put it in the terms of NBA decision-makers, it now looks like he may be in the same tier as Rutgers’ Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, meaning he could be battling for a spot in the 2-4 range, instead of one in the 4-7 range as most previously believed.
While we still have three months before draft night, Sunday’s game provides Edgecombe a platform under the bright lights to let NBA scouts measure his abilities against the likely number one overall pick and other potential lottery picks. If he can continue to show the growth of those guard skills, from shooting to playmaking to decision-making, he’s got a chance to keep moving the needle when it comes to the perception of his long-term offensive ceiling. That’s the key to him ultimately being able to challenge Harper and Bailey. It might have seemed impossible a few months ago, but not anymore.
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Kyle Boone
It’s conceivable, albeit not likely, that the only name in front of Edgecombe on draft night could be the player he’s looking eye-to-eye with on Sunday afternoon. Could he ever overtake Flagg? Maybe not in the next three months before draft night, but over the course of the next 15 years? Stranger things have happened.
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