Marcello’s Mailbag: Conference realignment? Nah, prepare for conference consolidation

Welcome to Marcello’s Mailbag, where college football is always at the top of the pile. This is a safe space to share opinions and ask questions without fear or ridicule. No question is dumb, though you may believe there are dumb answers. Luckily, I’m willing to look like a jester, but more often than not, I’ll fill your mind with the information you need to understand the most magical sport in the world.

The ACC may have secured Florida State and Clemson with a new revenue-sharing deal this week, but the agreement may have only slowed the approach to another round of conference realignment in major college football.

The ACC’s D-Day has been delayed to 2030 thanks to a compromise reached by the schools and the ACC. It includes a significant tweak to a hefty exit fee that will drop to $75 million in the summer of 2030. Simply put, if a program wishes, it has six years to raise the funds necessary to bolt for another conference. Meanwhile, the ACC has bought itself some time and has six years to strengthen its position in the media market.

For now, all is well in the ACC. The conference, Florida State and Clemson have agreed to drop their lawsuits, and the schools have opted to remain in the conference after a two-year stand-off that played out like a soap opera in courtrooms and the media.

For those unaware, a quick refresher: Florida State and Clemson have been unhappy with their revenue shares from the ACC as rivals in the SEC and Big Ten saw their paydays skyrocket. The ACC powerhouses believed they couldn’t remain competitive against the upper echelon under the ACC’s equal revenue sharing plan, so they explored an exit strategy from the conference. 

There was just one, gigantic, iron-clad problem keeping them from leaving: the ACC’s rich grant of rights. So, as FSU and Clemson threatened legal action, the ACC worked on a bonus structure to financially reward programs that perform well on and off the field. The additional payments were nominal and didn’t close the $30 million gap with the SEC. So, as FSU and Clemson spent untold amounts of money on lawyer fees to sue the ACC and try to get out of the conference’s ironclad grant of rights, which would have cost the schools more than $700 million, the ACC and the schools sought another solution. That arrived Monday with reports that the ACC will soon start a new unequal revenue-sharing plan that will give 40% of TV revenue to its legacy members – excluding Cal, Stanford and SMU – with 60% rewarded to the teams with the best TV ratings and performances on the field/court.

The payouts are expected to lead to an additional $15 million plus per year for the conference’s most successful and popular schools (such as FSU and Clemson). Those payouts could approach an extra $30 million when coupled with the previous bonus structure, effectively closing the gap with the Big Ten and SEC for a select few ACC programs.

It sounds like a big win for FSU and Clemson, right? They avoid a drawn-out battle in the courtroom, and a potential loss, and they get a favorable payout from the conference as they explore their options over the next six years as the ACC’s exit fee drops to $75 million.

“Long term, this revenue-sharing adjustment feels like a Band-Aid on a bullet wound,” said David McKenzie, a litigator in intellectual property who has followed the ACC’s legal drama. “It might delay immediate chaos, but it doesn’t solve the fundamental problem: FSU and Clemson don’t want a bigger piece of the ACC pie — they want an entirely different pie (Big Ten or SEC money). When the next wave of media deals is up in 2030, those schools will face the same financial pressure, and the ACC will be back at the bargaining table — or the courthouse.”

I’ll discuss this further in the Mailbag after I find a few million bucks under my coach cushions.

Does UNC join the Big Ten or SEC? Does it happen before around 2032 or closer to 2036?

— Expansion Crush, X

The premier programs in the ACC have been exploring exit plans for several years. You remember The Magnificent Seven, right? Well, North Carolina is among those programs with the most visibility in the conference as a basketball powerhouse, and you can bet more eyes will be on the Tar Heels’ football team this season with Bill Belichick on the sideline. In other words, UNC should expect to be among the highest-paid programs in the ACC starting in the next fiscal year.

Does that make them happy? Sure. Is it enough to stay happy as payouts rise in the Big Ten and SEC? That’s much more difficult to answer.

Curiously, the ACC’s exit fees drop significantly to $75 million starting in 2030, the same year the Big Ten’s media rights deals expire. If the Big Ten is interested in expanding with North Carolina (or others), the timing is perfect to pick up an ACC team or two, but do they add significant media value? Those questions came up when Florida State expressed interest two years ago, and we see where the Seminoles are today.

I think it’s more likely the Big Ten and SEC continue to work together with new scheduling partnerships, which will create new lucrative TV packages to sell to media partners. Who can say that the Big Ten and SEC’s partnership won’t blossom into something we’re not contemplating today? Forget the “super conference,” why not create a Champions League with a relegation system? 

As the rich get richer in the business world, they gobble up smaller companies, and the market consolidates. We got our first taste with the recent round of conference realignment. Washington State and Oregon State were left behind, the Pac-12 dissolved, and the SEC and Big Ten got stronger. 

When revenue-sharing begins with players, the ultra-competitive programs will develop an unquenchable thirst to mine their IP for new money. Not everyone will strike oil and foot the new $20.5 million bill. Leaving a conference seeking a slightly bigger payday at another conference isn’t the solution. After all, that’s just a drop in the new multi-billion dollar bucket. 

Expanding a conference’s footprint into new TV markets defined the 2010s and 2020s. That well is tapped. Cable is dying. Marquee matchups matter, and conferences are more reluctant to carve more pieces in the pie. 

Untapped business opportunities and creative thinking will define this next era, leading to better returns on investment. Conferences and athletic departments that capitalize on what they have rather than what they can create will produce the winners in these hunger games. Those that can’t … well, natural selection will run its course. They’ll be left behind, even as they hang onto the coattails of the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world to support their programs.

Will North Carolina leave the ACC for the Big Ten? We need to think bigger. Instead, I present a different query: How long until a powerful program in the SEC or Big Ten complains that its payout shouldn’t be the same as Purdue or Mississippi State? 

What happens then?

Consolidation, my friends.

In your opinion, which CFB program has benefited the most with the portal this offseason? And which has suffered the most? 

—Ed Helinski (X)

Needs outweigh star power in the transfer portal. Sometimes we get caught up in rankings rather than contextualizing gains over losses. Having said that, it’s hard to argue that LSU didn’t just win the offseason with the nation’s No. 1 portal haul, according to 247Sports.

LSU clearly needs to win big in Brian Kelly’s fourth season, and he clearly did everything he could to prepare this offseason. LSU lost out on five-star high school quarterback Bryce Underwood, but he saved the Tigers a lot of money when he chose Michigan, clearing a path for them to spend their money elsewhere. The additions of receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), and pass rushers Jack Pyburn (Florida), Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jimari Butler (Nebraska) highlight a haul that upgrades an already-talented roster into a championship contender in the SEC.

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Elsewhere, I love Texas Tech’s class. Joey McGuire easily has his most talented roster yet in Lubbock. Miami was again active in the portal, landing quarterback Carson Beck to rank fifth. Auburn and Georgia added key pieces, combining for top-50 additions, including the most coveted receivers in the portal (Georgia Tech’s Eric Singleton to Auburn; USC’s Zachariah Branch to Georgia). 

Arizona is my biggest loser. The Wildcats lost a nation-leading 31 players and replaced them with the nation’s 47th-ranked portal class. That doesn’t set up for a rebound next season after a disastrous debut year under coach Brent Brennan.

If you had to pick two Big 12 teams best set up to dominate the conference for the next decade, who would they be? 

— Ten12 Podcast Network (Bluesky)

I don’t believe a single team or two will dominate the Big 12 over the next several years. Parity will define this conference, which has quickly become the most exciting in the sport. Close games and random upsets injected some much-needed excitement into the season, and the unpredictability led to the emergence of newbie Arizona State.

I have long said that Oklahoma State and TCU are best equipped to capitalize in this new era because of their world-class facilities and booster support. Yet the Cowboys faceplanted last season, and Mike Gundy had to rework his contract to remain the head coach. 

I’ll say this: Texas Tech is my best bet to emerge as a contender, though I’m still counting on parity in the league. The Red Raiders’ facilities are fantastic, and a billionaire booster leads the NIL collective, which helped land the nation’s No. 3 portal class.

Do you think expanded CFP will cause conferences to eliminate conference championship games? 

— BCH (X)

Commissioners have already tipped their hand. They’re exploring playoff play-in games for championship weekend if the CFP moves to 14 teams with multiple quotmatic qualifiers for the power conferences. Frankly, I hope we get four play-in games in the SEC and Big Ten, with a format that embraces chaos, leading off with the regular season champion facing off against the No. 8 team in their respective leagues. 

The ACC and Big 12 will likely receive two AQs apiece, so I wouldn’t be surprised if those leagues opt to protect the regular season champion by rewarding them with an AQ, reserving “championship weekend” for a play-in game between the Nos. 2 and 3 teams in their leagues.

The legit intrigue will be those play-in games in the Big Ten and SEC.

Who’s gonna be the next Indiana-like team: New head coach; rise in standings? 

— Yannick (Threads)

I don’t believe we’ll have an Indiana-like rise for a first-year coach next season. That’s not a knock on the new hires, but it is a reflection on the situations they inherit at their respective schools. Only five jobs in the power conferences changed hands, including two in the Big 12 (UCF and West Virginia), and none of them have championship-caliber rosters.

I’m a big believer in Barry Odom, but Purdue was in the dumps when he took over this offseason. Scott Frost returns to Orlando, where he led UCF to an undefeated season in 2017, and he has a very talented roster at UCF, but he has a lot to prove after the disastrous run at Nebraska. 

Rich Rodriguez’s triumphant return to West Virginia is probably the best bet for an immediate turnaround. With the Big 12 set up for another chaotic season, you could convince me that there is a scenario in which the Mountaineers surprise a team and contend for a conference title, but that might also be a stretch.

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I do love UNLV hiring Dan Mullen. That program is set up to maintain the success Odom delivered the last two years, and Mullen is legitimately one of the best offensive play-callers I’ve ever been around. There’s just one problem: the Rebels have yet to surpass Boise State in the Mountain West, and the Broncos are loaded again this season, even without running back Ashton Jeanty.

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